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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 9d

These measures would give social security a much needed boost, support the economy, and go a long way in protecting children's living standards

Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 9d

Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.

Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 9d

On its own, scrapping the two-child limit would lift around 300k children out of relative poverty.

But 140k kids are already impacted by the two-child limit and the benefit cap

So pairing up with a protected minimum floor would overall reduce child poverty by 500k in 2029/30

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 9d

The average couple with kids is projected to lose £750 a year (1.3%) over the parliament. These two changes would reduce that by a third

Lone parent families would be even better supported. Rather than losing 3.0% of income (£780) they would instead be £320 a year better off

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 9d

In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families

Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 11d

But these projections can also be downgraded

As my colleague Chris Belfield has pointed out on the other place, lower productivity growth will make us poorer

For the full write-up of the analysis from Chris, @statspeter.bsky.social, and myself see the link below

www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi...

A decade of falling incomes? JRF's pre-budget assessment of living standards

Average incomes are expected to fall by £550 over this parliament, meaning the Government risks having the worst living standards performance of any parliament on record.

www.jrf.org.uk

Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 11d

Our estimates of living standards are based on the latest OBR and BoE projections for the economy. This data can and will change over the parliament as the economic and policy landscape changes

The more Government does now to improve incomes the better the outlook will be

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 11d

Working-age households will fare worse than pensioners, driven in part by very different experiences of social security

Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 11d

We project that the average real disposable income will be 1.3% (£550) lower in September 2029 than in 2024

Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 11d

Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began

This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 24

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jul 10

Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children

This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship

It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be

A graph showing the increase in the number of children impacted by the Two-Child Limit since April 2018

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Scot Hunter @scothunter.bsky.social · Jul 4

Bar chart titled "Healthy life expectancy at birth, by sex and deprivation level (IMD decile), England". The chart compares healthy life expectancy for men (dark blue bars) and women (light green bars) across ten deprivation deciles, from most deprived (Decile 1) to least deprived (Decile 10), based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

In Decile 1 (most deprived), healthy life expectancy is approximately 51.1 years for men and 50.5 years for women.
In Decile 10 (least deprived), it rises to about 70.1 years for men and 70.2 years for women.
The chart shows a clear upward trend in healthy life expectancy as deprivation decreases, with a nearly 20-year gap between the most and least deprived groups.
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 2020–2022 data.

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · Jun 24

The Govt has not published an employment impact assessment for their disability benefit cuts & increased employment support

📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5

Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job

But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

A graph showing that local authorities with weaker local economies have more people on UC that are searching for work or unable to work due to a health condition for each vacancy in that area

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Jun 24

Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢

The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3

"Cutting disabled people's benefits won't magically create suitable jobs, particularly in those parts of the country that have long had weaker jobs markets. It's little wonder so many disable people are fearful of the impact of the government's cuts" - Abby Jitendra, Principal Policy Adviser

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

This analysis is one part of a forthcoming report from myself, @meriahlberg.bsky.social, and Fran Ladouch

That report makes the wider argument that these cuts are not the way to help disabled people into work, resulting instead in far greater hardship

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

Employers in more affluent areas of the country are more likely to encourage applications from disabled people, with 1 disability confident role for every 47 people on UC-Health

In ex-industrial areas this rises to 1 for every 333 people - a staggering gap that the cuts will do nothing to help

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

There is just 1 disability confident vacancy for every 121 people on UC-Health nationwide, this is clearly not enough

But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

This is not a perfect comparison. Not everyone has the skills or experience for every job and not everyone on UC-Health can work (although all are impacted by the cuts)

But we can ask how ready local employers are to hire and support disabled staff by looking at disability confident job adverts

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

Nationally, there is 1 job for every 7 people on Universal Credit searching for work or unable to because of a health condition

But this varies substantially by the strength of an area's economy. In ex-industrial areas there is twice as much competition among this group than the national average

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

The Government should cancel the cuts and rethink their approach

Because rather than help disabled people into work, if these reforms are implemented, they will likely be looked back upon as a disastrous method by which the Government will have impoverished the very people it aims to help into work

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Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · Jun 24

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job

But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Abby Jitendra @abbyabhaya.bsky.social · May 23

What the child poverty strategy is is much more important than when it is.

1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

No 10 delays child poverty strategy with tens of thousands more facing hardship

Exclusive: Flagship policy put back until at least autumn amid fears cost of removing two-child benefit cap will outweigh political benefit

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · Apr 2

Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest?

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.

Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread

Map showing proportion of working age population in receipt of health related social security, coloured by quintile of constituency. In some coastal areas, south Wales, the North West and Yorkshire and North East, rates are between 15-20%

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Reposted by Sam Tims

Joe Farnworth @joemfm.bsky.social · Mar 27

This was raised in the Commons today. Heartening to see MPs across the House - many drawing on their lived experience - highlight deep concern over changes to PIP eligibility leading to loss of Carer's Allowance. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

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