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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 21m

A tale of two book covers.

Now, as ever, I have the deepest respect for @mcfaulmike.bsky.social, but also sympathy as his magnum opus has been in production so long that the original cover has had to be amended to reflect the emergence of a third autocratic power.

Out on 28 Oct.

amzn.to/3IWWRQX

Book cover 1: "Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia and the New Global Order"

Book cover 1: "Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America and the New Global Order"

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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 4h

I agree. I've seen Putin described as risk-averse; I don't think that's right. He takes risks that other leaders wouldn't, but only when he assesses that the likelihood of an effective response is low. The West has yet to change his assessment that he can keep pushing us back.

Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5h

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Screenshot from linked article, saying Western officials are puzzled, but they shouldn’t be.

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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 6h

The UK government's inability to have any serious China policy continues.

"Notwithstanding the fact that further witness statements were provided, none of these stated that at the time of the offence China represented a threat to national security"

....🫠

Spy case collapse blamed on failure to label China a threat

Prosecutors say they were unable to obtain evidence from the government to meet the threshold for prosecution.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5h

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

I hope it provides you with one or two interesting points to include when you give the lecture!

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

'The Wargame' played out how Russia could coerce the UK - and what Britain could (or could not) do about it.

That was recorded in April. Six months later, this catch-up asks whether the current UK government is acting with sufficient urgency to make people any safer.

news.sky.com/story/wargam...

Wargame Day: Is the UK ready for a real Russian attack?

<a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sky-news-daily/id951048357' target='_blank'>👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈</a>

news.sky.com

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

@jason-power.bsky.social at least you know people have read your RTÉ commentary on data cables, even if not very carefully!

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

Hold on a second. Those startling numbers on the proportion of global data traffic passing through Irish waters aren’t exactly backed up by the source they are quoted from.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

Credit here to @maevedrury.bsky.social and @jasoncmoyer.com writing for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social.

Also, nice graphic of international subsea cables. I'd like to see Russia's shadow fleet cable-cutting operation try to take a pop at THIS one:

Between Switzerland and Italy, apparently.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

No. But that hasn't stopped Ireland relying completely on the UK for defence in order that it can pretend to the luxury of neutrality.

(From amzn.to/4cFI1b6 )

Screenshot from linked book.

"Meanwhile Ireland is facing a growing realisation that its
policy of neutrality does not offer protection.96 Dependence
on the UK will always be a sensitive topic in a country where
independence from it is such an integral element of the national
mythos. And that makes honest debate doubly challenging.
Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar countered claims of “freeloading”
by, counterintuitively, referring to partnership agreements with
NATO and the EU under which they protect subsea cables in
Ireland’s maritime space rather than any capacity that Dublin
itself might have. He also suggested that neutrality and having
“lots of friends” was in itself a protection, and highlighted that
Ireland is one of the few countries whose international aid budget
is bigger than its defence budget.97
But the country has no capacity of its own to defend its
airspace, and little to deal with subsea threats in its maritime
areas of responsibility (its two small maritime patrol aircraft are
unarmed and have no subsea capabilities).98 That has exposed
Ireland to harsh criticism as a relatively wealthy country – its
GDP per capita is the second highest in Europe – but one that
has shown little inclination to protect itself or its vital interests,
relying instead on the capabilities of neighbours and partners
further afield.99"

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

Credit here to @maevedrury.bsky.social and @jasoncmoyer.com writing for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social.

Also, nice graphic of international subsea cables. I'd like to see Russia's shadow fleet cable-cutting operation try to take a pop at THIS one:

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting article on Ireland's (hopefully) evolving defence posture.

If true that 75% of data cables carrying up to 95% of international traffic pass through or near Irish waters, then long past time Ireland took at least some interest in protecting them.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

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Donnacha Ó Beacháin @donnachadcu.bsky.social · 3d

On Euronews I highlighted that Ukraine isn’t just Europe’s shield - it’s also its teacher.

What Ukraine learns - and invents - today will shape how the EU and NATO deter Russia tomorrow.

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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 3d

I find it extremely dumb of our governments to not release selected materials that show the serious nature of some of the drone incidents.

A majority is likely hysteria but there are also the real cases (mil drones).

The countdown to losing that info-battle started a week ago.

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 4d

🇩🇪 Drones circling Munich airport and Bundeswehr facilities were military reconnaissance drones, - BILD

A police helicopter tried unsuccessfully to find the drone operator, police report says.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 4d

I struggle with the categorisation of the potty-mouthed Russian commentary on these videos as “mature language”.

Tatarigami @tatarigami.bsky.social · 4d

Another resident of Leningrad Oblast, Russia’s so-called cultural capital, filmed the highly successful aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on Kirishinefteorgsintez, narrating the fire show in a truly colorful display of Russian expletives.

Warning: Mature Language

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 4d

Why does it matter? Because as this excellent (and balanced, and objective) article by @sanshiro.bsky.social on Soviet and Russian infiltration of academia lays out, Valdai is still useful to Russia in laundering and legitimating its narratives.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Screenshot from linked article on foreign academics that have been lauded at Valdai.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 4d

Why does it matter? Because as this excellent (and balanced, and objective) article by @sanshiro.bsky.social on Soviet and Russian infiltration of academia lays out, Valdai is still useful to Russia in laundering and legitimating its narratives.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 4d

Did you know Russia's Valdai Club is still being held, and is still attracting Western academics who are naive, unscrupulous or shameless enough to appear on its stage? This year's jamboree ended yesterday.

Richard Sakwa on the first panel at Valdai.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5d

I’ve popped in to @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social for the morning, to find some of my fan mail has made it to being pinned on the board.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5d

Surpriiiiise!

www.reuters.com/business/aer...

US Tomahawk missile shipments to Ukraine unlikely, sources say

The Trump Administration's desire to send long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine may not be viable because current inventories are committed to the U.S. Navy and other uses, a U.S. official and three sources said.

www.reuters.com

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Sami Serola @serola.bsky.social · 5d

See this: tenbluelinks.org#chrome-android

How to Turn Off Google AI Overview and Set "Web" as Default

tenbluelinks.org

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5d

One for you @newsguard.bsky.social

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 6d

I thought, unusually, I might glance at Google‘s “AI summary“. I’m so glad I did, otherwise I might never have known that Denmark is acquiring nuclear weapons. Thanks Google! Thanks AI!

Lunatic AI-generated wibble about Danish nukes.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 6d

Or plantar fasciitis.

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 6d

I’ll be heading to London for this short event on Friday morning. Tune in if you can.

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 7d

Event | Is the Russia-Ukraine war winnable? | 3 October

Speakers:
🔹 Arseniy Yatsenyuk, PM of Ukraine in 2014-16
🔹 @keirgiles.bsky.social

Chair: Orysia Lutsevych @chathamhouse.org

Register for in person attendance or watch online via this link: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...

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