Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Some professional news: today is my last day with @equitablegrowth.bsky.social I’m excited to be joining @clevelandfed.bsky.social as a senior research economist on Monday. Also excited to be back in Cleveland in time to see the @cleguardians.com try to chase down the Tigers.

9 3 67

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Aug 5

Anybody around DC have any use for some old econ textbooks? Or know of an institution that might?

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Jul 23

Just sitting here listening to the Guardians game, thinking about this scene from Moneyball for no particular reason youtu.be/YwmsSAvkzGE?...

Billy Trades Peña

YouTube video by Trevolution

youtu.be

1

Reposted by Kevin Rinz

Briefing Book @briefingbook.bsky.social · Jun 30

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money www.briefingbook.info/p/the-prolif...

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money

Don’t say you didn’t see this financial crisis coming.

www.briefingbook.info

2 1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Jun 25

Very cool!

Reposted by Kevin Rinz

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Jun 10

Super interesting column @equitablegrowth.bsky.social by Alex Bell on how identification by anti-instruments reveals attribute tradeoffs, applied to job quality.

Got to see him present it @upjohninstitute.bsky.social recently. New & interesting.
#EconSky
equitablegrowth.org/the-hidden-t...

The hidden trade-offs of nonwage job amenities for U.S. workers

Research shows that “amenity trade-offs” can account for as much as two-thirds of the gender pay gap.

equitablegrowth.org

5 10

Reposted by Kevin Rinz

Briefing Book @briefingbook.bsky.social · Jun 2

The Heart of the Deal www.briefingbook.info/p/the-heart-...

The Heart of the Deal

Why the US-UK trade deal might make both countries poorer

www.briefingbook.info

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

3 6

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

Ugh, thanks

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

Full piece here equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-pose...

Tariffs pose real risks to the U.S. labor market

A look at labor market data reveals how trade policy and tariffs could affect U.S. workers in the medium and longer term.

equitablegrowth.org

2

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

There’s so much uncertainty that it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, will ultimately come to pass. But I think being concrete about what follows from reasonable changes to labor market dynamics is helpful.

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

Don’t want to ignore advocates for aggressive tariffs who think the short-term pain associated w adjusting to them will be outweighed by the longer-term gains associated w returning production to the US, so consider an optimistic scenario: hiring not too low, layoffs not too high

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

But there’s no reason firms’ adjustments would have to stop at modest. Slower hiring and faster layoffs could easily spiral into a recession, even before the resolution of tariff uncertainty renders some businesses non-viable. Even a fairly mild recession could drive UR to ~6%.

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

Tariffs pose obvious risks. Even just the uncertainty about what they’ll be could slow hiring and/or increase layoffs. Even modest adjustments to tariffs could push the unemployment rate several tenths above baseline.

1

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 12

I’ve been doing quarterly labor market updates at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social once all the data come in, and now is a weird time for one. Tariffs are coming and going faster than data can be collected. What we have shows a labor market that still looks solid, comparable to 2019. But…

2 1 3

Reposted by Kevin Rinz

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · May 8

Why do some jobs pay better than others? Think about what workers do! We tried to start doing this in an @equitablegrowth.bsky.social piece this week. We look at how skills, abilities, and work activities from O*NET relate to wages.

1 3 10