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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell
@kimdoell.bsky.social
2.2K followers 84 following 85 posts
Social and environmental psychologist/neuroscientist. Environmental Collective Behaviour (ECo) Group Leader, Uni Konstanz. Banjolele enthusiast. Failed painter.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · Mar 27
🌍 We are launching a new #ManyLabs!!! Join the Heat & Cognition project! We're studying how extreme heat affects human thinking, social behavior & well-being — globally.
Contribute & co-author:
🔗 Info: heatandmind.wordpress.com
📋 Sign up: www.soscisurvey.de/HeatandCogni...
#EnvironmentalPsychology
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 22h
Very excited to hear that we won SPSP's Robert Cialdini Prize this year for our International Climate Psychology Collaboration!! Huge thank you to our 258 collaborators!! 🍾🎉🤩
jayvanbavel.bsky.social
Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 1d
I'm excited to share the news that our climate change project won the @spspnews.bsky.social Robert Cialdini Prize for a "paper that uses field methods and demonstrates the relevance of social psychology to outside groups and communities"!

You can read it here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 4d
@monabielig.bsky.social and Celina Kacperski will be presenting and discussing our new Heat and Cognition Manylabs at the virtual Big Team Science Conference! October 6th at 3pm UTC. Register now (for free or pay-what-you-want) at bigteamscience.github.io!
bigteamscience.github.io
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 7d
This unconference is presented by
kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 7d
Where: online!
When: 7th of Oct. at 3pm CEST/ 9am EDT
Want to join? Sign up here (registration is by donation): bigteamscienceconference.github.io
Big Team Science Conference
The fourth annual Big Team Science Conference will be held virtually via Zoom October 6-8, 2025. The goal of this three-day virtual conference is to bring together a multidisciplinary group of researc...
bigteamscienceconference.github.io
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 7d
With @epronizius.bsky.social, @monabielig.bsky.social, @clauslamm.bsky.social, @protzko.bsky.social, Olena Vitkovska, and Celina Kacperski, we'll explore the ethical tensions, institutional constraints, and political risks of doing science across borders—especially in times of war or crisis.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · 7d
🧠🌍 Big Team Science aims to make global science thrive. But what happens when collaborators come from countries in conflict? Or when researchers are unwilling, unable, or legally barred from working together?
Join our online #BTScon2025 UNconference:
"Big Team Science in a Divided World"
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · Jul 21
It is great to see the Manylabs Climate (ICPC) dataset being reused in new and important ways! @saschakuhn.bsky.social and @wilhelmhofmann.bsky.social looked more in-depth into the societal-level structures that shape public support for policy acceptance across the globe.
More info 👇👇👇
saschakuhn.bsky.social
Sascha Kuhn @saschakuhn.bsky.social · Jul 21
🧵New preprint out:
How do macro-level structures shape public acceptance of climate policies?
We explore this question using the ICPC #ManyLabs data across 63 countries.
Beyond individual beliefs, how do structural conditions like inequality, fossil dependence, or neoliberalism shape support?
[1/]
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
BIG thanks to the coauthors: Lukas Lengersdorff,
@shawnrhoadsphd.bsky.social,
@todorova.bsky.social,
@jonasnitschke.bsky.social, Jamie Druckman,
@madalina.bsky.social, The Many Labs Climate Consortium (i.e., the academic expert forecasters),
@clauslamm.bsky.social, and @jayvanbavel.bsky.social
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
📄 Full preprint here: osf.io/preprints/ps...

Would love your thoughts and feedback! #openscience #climatepsych #forecasting
OSF
osf.io
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
Takeaway: If we want to improve behavioral science and intervention design, we need better ways of evaluating expert judgment—and clearer benchmarks.
Forecasting experiments also give unique insights into how experts (and nonexperts) think and act!
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
So what does this mean?

➡️ Being an expert helps—but it doesn’t guarantee accuracy.
➡️ Predicting behavioral outcomes is especially hard.
➡️ And heuristics can be more useful than expected.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
We also looked at who tends to be a better forecaster.

The only consistent predictor across outcomes? Age.
Older participants were more accurate.
Other traits (e.g., open-mindedness, political orientation) mattered for beliefs and policy—but not behavior.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
That heuristic?
Just assume the interventions do nothing. No effect.

It turns out this "do nothing" model was surprisingly hard to beat—especially when predicting real behavior.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
How did they do?

▶️ Academics were more accurate than the public—especially for belief and policy outcomes.
▶️ But their predictions were less accurate for behavior.
▶️ However, nobody outperformed a simple heuristic model.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
We tested four groups:

Academics (N = 242)
Government officials (N = 23)
Climate communicators (N = 23)
General public (N = 574)

We then compared their predictions to actual results from a nationally representative U.S. sample (N = 6,954).
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
Forecasters were asked to predict how 11 climate interventions would impact:
✅ Beliefs about climate change
✅ Support for climate policy
✅ A costly pro-environmental behavior

These weren’t hypotheticals—these were real interventions, with real data.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 16
🧵New preprint!
Can experts accurately predict real-world effectiveness of 11 climate change interventions?

We ran a preregistered forecasting study with 862 participants and compared their predictions to real-world outcomes from 6,954 Americans.

What we found surprised us.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
BIG thanks to all coauthors @todorova.bsky.social, David Steyrl, Matthew Hornsey, @cameronbrick.bsky.social Florian Lange, @jayvanbavel.bsky.social @madalina.bsky.social
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Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
📣 We hope this work helps refine climate models and guide global interventions by:
🔹 Prioritizing modifiable psychological research targets
🔹 Accounting for national context
🔹 Emphasizing outcome specificity
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
🧩 One size doesn’t fit all.
Public vs private, easy vs effortful behaviors are driven by different factors.
Designing effective interventions means targeting the right outcome with the right lever.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
⚠️ One of the most striking findings:
Political orientation strongly predicts beliefs and policy support,
but not actual behavior—and even predicts less info sharing.

Is polarization appears more psychological than behavioral?
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Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
Explained variance ranged widely:
🔹 Belief: 57% 🥳
🔹 Policy support: 46%🍾
🔹 Info sharing: 74% accuracy🎉
🔹 Actual behavior: just 10%🫣

Private, effortful actions are harder to predict—likely influenced by unmeasured situational factors.
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Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
People in lower-HDI countries showed stronger climate beliefs and behaviors—supporting the precarity hypothesis that less affluent nations, with fewer resources to buffer climate impacts, are more attuned to the need for action.
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
📊 Top 4 predictors consistently mattered across all outcomes:
✅ Environmentalist identity
✅ Trust in climate science
✅ Internal environmental motivation
✅ HDI
Most other predictors had inconsistent or even opposing effects (positive relationship with one outcome, neg with another).
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kimdoell.bsky.social
Kim Doell @kimdoell.bsky.social · May 9
We ranked 19 predictors across 4 climate outcomes:
1️⃣ Belief in climate change
2️⃣ Policy support
3️⃣ Willingness to share info
4️⃣ Actual effortful behavior (not self-report!)
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