Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 26d

Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42jwgnI

Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills

Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners

bit.ly

1 3 3

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR Rome @ecfrrome.bsky.social · 27d

Se i negoziati tra 🇺🇸 e 🇷🇺 dovessero fallire, il ruolo di Lukashenko svanirebbe da un giorno all'altro, le sue concessioni andrebbero sprecate e la sua reputazione con Putin verrebbe danneggiata.
🖊️ @kirland.bsky.social & Vasil Navumau

Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills

Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners

buff.ly

1

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social · 27d

Belarussisch-russiche Militärdrills: Zapad 2025 ist nicht nur eine Machtdemonstration, sondern auch Lukaschenkos Versuch, eine Rolle in der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung zu spielen, schreiben @kirland.bsky.social und @vasil-navumau.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/zapa...

Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills

Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners

ecfr.eu

1 1

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 27d

Should US–Russia negotiations collapse, Lukashenko’s role would evaporate overnight, his concessions wasted and his standing with Putin damaged, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau
https://bit.ly/42jwgnI

Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills

Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners

ecfr.eu

4 9

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29d

To show that Moscow can significantly worsen the lives of Europeans without crossing the perceived threshold of radical military escalation while offering 'concessions' in exchange for European 'understanding' of Moscow's interests in Ukraine. It is a cynical old-school iron diplomacy. 4/4

5

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29d

Moscow would then 'offer' a compromise: no Ukrainian interference in Russian civilian air traffic in exchange for 'software updates' to the drones. What is the strategy? 3/4

1 3

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29d

In my view, the recent incursion of Russian drones into Poland is a sign that this could escalate into a regular flow of 'stray' Russian drones made of wood and tape towards Polish and Baltic airports and other logistical hubs, especially during rush hour. 2/4

1 2

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29d

As the full-scale invasion enters its final stage (even radical pro-war Russian groups are talking about an end), the Russian leadership is seeking ways to influence Western perceptions of the war and their calculations regarding the desired outcome. 1/4

1 2 4

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

Meduza in English @meduza.io · Jul 28

The Huffman family thought Russia’s “shared values” visa would be their escape from U.S. “indoctrination.” But their plan hasn’t gone the way they hoped.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...

‘Thrown to the wolves’ How a Texas man moved his family to Russia to escape ‘DEI’ — and ended up on the front lines in Ukraine — Meduza

In the last three years, the Kremlin has doubled down on portraying Russia as a bastion of “traditional values” — a narrative used to justify both the invasion of Ukraine and Vladimir…

meduza.io

8 5 27

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · Jul 28

Until the end of July, you can use the code “SUMMER25” at checkout to redeem the offer. www.waterstones.com/book/imperfe... 4/4

Imperfect Equilibrium by Kirill Shamiev | Waterstones

Buy Imperfect Equilibrium by Kirill Shamiev from Waterstones today! Click and Collect from your local Waterstones or get FREE UK delivery on orders over £25.

www.waterstones.com

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · Jul 28

"This is a solid, comprehensive narrative of the dynamics of civil-military relations in Russia from Soviet times to the recent military assault on Ukraine. Overall, the manuscript is a serious contribution to the field that goes beyond some previously published monographs." 3/4

1 1 1

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · Jul 28

Anonymous academic reviewers:
"Overall, this is a very good manuscript. It will make a strong contribution to the field." "I found the manuscript to be very promising and to fill an important gap in our understanding of civil-military relations and defense reform in Russia." 2/4

1

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · Jul 28

Would you like to know why it has been so difficult for Putin's Russia to build a powerful military?
@waterstones.bsky.social has launched a 25% discount on upcoming titles, including my book on Russian military development! 1/4 #WPreorder

1 6

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · Jun 25

#Russia will likely try to keep the #Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains, @kadriliik.bsky.social‬ and @kirland.bsky.social‬ argue in their last commentary.
Read it here ⬇️

Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war

Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains.

ecfr.eu

2 3

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · Jun 8

My MA & PhD uni is in the news again: “The repercussions of the American turmoil are being felt in places like Vienna. By mid-May, C.E.U. had recorded a 40 percent increase in applications from American students compared with last year.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/u...

Harvard’s Battle Is Familiar to a University the Right Forced into Exile

www.nytimes.com

1 7

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · Jun 5

Interesting debate on what defence spending adds to your economy

on.ft.com/4jCLJFs How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?

How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?

UK ministers argue that higher military budgets will spur innovation and lead to long-term productivity gains

on.ft.com

2 6 33

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · May 29

Back from a long research trip to Russia. Insightful professional meetings, and more importantly, human contact and on-the-ground observations. First time back since autumn ‘22, surprisingly little has changed on the streets. My analysis re current RU and negotiations coming soon

2 1 15

Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · May 21

What domestic constraints does Russia face in negotiating with Ukraine? Risa Brooks, Margarita Zavadskaya, and I explore this in our new piece on the military’s role in Russian politics. It draws on a unique survey experiment we designed for an academic study.

ECFR @ecfr.eu · May 21

Russian public opinion often shifts when military leaders challenge Kremlin narratives—whether on Ukraine or China. This highlights the unique influence of Russia’s military elite in shaping national sentiment.

General knowledge: Russian military chiefs, the Russian public and Ukraine and China

When Russian military leaders are thought to oppose government policy, the Russian public appear to give them a sympathetic hearing

bit.ly

1 1

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Apr 24

Deploying a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine might seem like a step toward stability. However, without a comprehensive peace agreement and clear mandates, such a move could entangle Europe in a protracted conflict, writes
@kirland.bsky.social
@ecfrwidereurope.bsky.social

Why a Ukraine peacekeeping force could become a trap for Europe

The EU may need to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. However, without urgent regulatory changes, its member states are unprepared for the risks of direct confrontation with Russia

bit.ly

2 2 4

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · Mar 17

„Russland hat kein Vertrauen darin, dass ausländische Truppen zur Friedenssicherung eingesetzt werden. Ihre Stationierung wird als Gefahr gedeutet und ich würde auch erwarten, dass sie mit Raketen und Drohnen angegriffen werden“, erläuterte @kirland.bsky.social.

2 7

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · Mar 10

See our catalogue for more upcoming non-fiction➡️ tinyurl.com/k2bpzrct

Featuring titles from @dankaszeta.bsky.social @kirland.bsky.social @kalathmika.bsky.social
@fieryparticle.bsky.social @irgarner.bsky.social @paulclammer.bsky.social @shuja-jamal.bsky.social @marwecki.bsky.social and many more!

2 3

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Feb 15

Trump’s USAID freeze has put 90+ Russian pro-democracy groups and independent media at risk of closure. Europe cannot fully replace the lost funding, but it must step up with targeted support for the most influential organisations. @kirland.bsky.social 📝

Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society

Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…

buff.ly

16 43

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Feb 14

Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood, writes @kirland.bsky.social 👇

Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society

Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…

buff.ly

7 6

Reposted by Kirill Shamiev

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · Feb 11

Yeah folks, it doesn’t look good for us at ridl.io

Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya.bsky.social · Feb 11

Riddle Russia, an excellent outlet working in exile, has lost their core grant. They're facing a possible shutdown unless they can come up with an infusion of cash to buy them time to look for new funding.

A decimation of independent Russian media is happening as we speak.

ridl.io/donate/

Donate – Riddle Russia

ridl.io

1 9 12