All other factors aside, do you really think its a GOOD idea for Dems to just share all their analysis publicly? Why not hold some cards close to their chest rather than give the GOP 3 years to counteract whatever they are planning.

Even Fort Worth, as in the city borders, has voted majority Democrat for a bit now. The county as a whole is swingy (barely Trump in 16, barely Biden in 20, barely Trump in 24), and the city is only 45% the population of the county.

Reminder: he wouldn't have been relevant if voters had done better at electing Democrats in OTHER senate races in 2016, 2018, 2020. There were at least 8 races that were SUPER winnable that a GOP candidate won, and if any of them had gone the other way, Manchin would not have mattered.

Are you just willfully ignorant? A huge chunk of those "Democrats" are white evangelical conservatives from the 60s/70s/80s/90s who just never bothered to update their registration.