Kyle Meng
@kylemeng.com
6.3K followers 520 following 330 posts
Professor at UCSB Bren School and Econ Dept. Climate and Energy Director at emLab. Former White House CEA Senior Climate Economist. Associate at @nber.org @csis.org. Board member @ucsusa.bsky.social. Personal views. www.kylemeng.com
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kylemeng.com
Governor Newsom just reauthorized California’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest - for the next two decades, reducing pollution and electricity prices in the world’s 4th biggest economy. This is now the US’ most important climate policy.
kylemeng.com
California Assembly and Senate just passed AB 1207, extending and strengthening the state’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest- for the next 20 years. Now onto the governor’s signature!

#climatesky #energysky
kylemeng.com
Dr. Kyle Meng, UC Santa Barbara: “This is the most important U.S. climate policy for the foreseeable future. These bills send a signal that California is doubling down on its climate commitments for the next two decades with a practical approach that meets both climate and affordability goals.”
What they’re saying: Overwhelming support for historic climate and energy affordability legislation | Governor of California
www.gov.ca.gov
Reposted by Kyle Meng
tderyugina.bsky.social
Hey, #EconSky! Got a policy-relevant paper that you want folks in DC to see? Present & publish it with NBER's Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy.

Submission deadline is Oct 20.

Conference is in DC on May 21, 2026.

More details below.

conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...
Submission: 8th Annual NBER Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference, Page 1 of 2 - MyNBER
conference.nber.org
kylemeng.com
Many thanks to Gov. Newsom, CA legislators, & staff for their tireless efforts to get us here.

Mighty proud to be a Californian today. /n
kylemeng.com
This is a strong bill. It double downs on CA’s climate commitment for next 20 years—balancing ambition & affordability.

It may also well be the most important U.S. climate policy for the foreseeable future. 9/
kylemeng.com
5. Tackling leakage


Previously, free permits granted regardless of industry’s leakage risk.


But too many free permits mean less revenue. 


Now, post-2030 free allocations must consider each sector’s leakage risk. 8/
kylemeng.com
4. Smarter offsets


Offsets lower costs but raise integrity concerns.


AB 1207 has a new idea: for every offset used, the cap tightens.


Emissions stay under the cap and compliance costs fall vs. banning offsets outright. 7/
kylemeng.com
3. Making electricity more affordable 


Electricity in CA is too costly, slowing electrification and making adaptation expensive.

AB 1207 directs more revenue to the CA Climate Credit, boosting bill relief, especially during hot months when families need it most. 6/
kylemeng.com
2. Explicit link to CA climate targets


For the first time, CA carbon market is explicitly tied to CA GHG goals:

-40% cut by 2030 (vs 1990)
-85% cut (vs 1990) & net-zero by 2045

This means financial consequences if CA fall short 5/
kylemeng.com
1. Extension to 2045


Past renewals every 10 yrs cause market crashes & uncertainty.


AB 1207 extends program to 2045.


A 20 year carbon price signal for clean investment in the world’s 4th-largest economy. 4/
kylemeng.com
AB 1207 reauthorizes the core of CA’s carbon market and reinforces it in 5 key ways.

Here’s what’s new: 3/
kylemeng.com
Cap-and-invest is California’s centerpiece climate policy.

It ensures the state hits its climate targets affordably
 & generates billions in revenue.

It is also a pillar 
with other carbon markets for global climate cooperation. 2/
kylemeng.com
Today marks a major development in U.S. climate policy.

Gov. Newsom, the CA Assembly & Senate just released the final cap-and-trade—now called cap-and-invest—reauthorization bill: AB 1207. 1/

#climatesky #energysky
leginfo.legislature.ca.gov
Reposted by Kyle Meng
erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.
benzipperer.org
Important to remember that thanks to the dedicated public servants at BLS, employment estimates have become MORE accurate over time

And the final version of the preliminary revision reported today will probably be smaller when it is incorporated early next year
ernietedeschi.bsky.social
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.
kylemeng.com
California has a little over 24 hrs to release legislative language on cap & trade reauthorization.

Hard to imagine the most significant U.S climate policy in the foreseeable future with such stakeholder and political support is cutting it this close.

#climatesky #energysky
Reposted by Kyle Meng
nealemahoney.bsky.social
I'm hiring predocs to work with me on econ policy research projects starting in Summer 2026. Topics include healthcare, consumer finance, energy markets, housing, and childcare.

You'll be part of an awesome community of @siepr.bsky.social predocs.

Details here:
siepr.stanford.edu/programs/sie...
Reposted by Kyle Meng
andrewdessler.com
Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.

Example: refuting one sentence.
DOE CWG STATEMENT (second paragraph of section 2.1.1, page 3): “Piao et al. (2020) noted
that greening was even observable in the Arctic.”
COMMENT: This statement implies that the Arctic greening signal was caused by elevated CO2
,
however that is not the scientific consensus. Piao et al. (2020) attribute the greening trend in the
Arctic predominantly to growing season length driven by warmer temperatures (see also Y.
Zhang et al., 2022). Piao et al. (2020) also note that this positive impact of increasing
temperatures appears to have weakened over the past four decades, “suggesting a possible
saturation of future greening in response to warmer temperature” (see also comment on
greenness trends related to Section 2.1.1, first sentence of Page 4). It is also important to put
Arctic greening more broadly into the context of the carbon cycle and other impacts. While
above-ground plants may have displayed more leaf area over the past decades, rising
temperatures also thaw permafrost and drive accelerated decomposition in highly carbon rich
soils (Turetsky et al., 2020), a process which is expected to accelerate as climate continues to
warm (Miner et al., 2022). Thus even with Arctic greening, high latitude terrestrial systems may
become net carbon sources to the atmosphere, causing an amplifying feedback (Braghiere et
al., 2023). Other risks to the Arctic linked to higher CO2

levels and rising temperatures are not
mentioned in this report (Virkkala et al., 2025). The Arctic is warming at a rate of 2 to 3 times the
global average, leading to thawing of permanently frozen soils (permafrost), with downstream
impacts including loss of structural support for buildings and subsidence, threatening
communities, roads, runways, and other assets across Alaska (Manos et al., 2025; University of
Alaska Fairbanks Institute of Northern Engineering US Army Corps of Engineers Alaska District
& Laboratory, 2019).
kylemeng.com
Recent CA Assembly movement in cap-and-trade bill may have propped up permit prices in today's CARB auction.

But CA still losing revenue from C&T uncertainty: today's revenue could have been ~$300M more under last year's prices.

CA policymakers need to reauthorize C&T.

#energysky #climatesky
Press Release: Sluggish Auction Results — Market Still Waiting for Leadership to Recommit to California’s Cap and Trade Program   — Clean and Prosperous California
CAP California Press Release on August 2025 Auction Results  
www.cleanprosperousca.org
kylemeng.com
#climatesky #energysky
kylemeng.com
The most important U.S. climate legislation over the next few years is out!

ASM Irwin's draft California Assembly Bill 1207 reauthorizes California's ground breaking GHG cap-and-trade (C&T) program.

Here are 5 key takeaways from AB 1207 1/
www.politico.com
kylemeng.com
There are a lot more details.

And many more to be worked out over the next few weeks.

But this is a very strong reauthorization bill.

AB 1207 shows CA can once again lead on climate with economically smart, environmentally sound policy. All while addressing our affordability challenges. /n
kylemeng.com
#5: Allowing offsets w/ co-benefits & additionally

Offsets are far from perfect. But they do bring cost containment & other benefits.

AB 1207 strikes a nice balance: it expands offsets only if they bring in nature-based solutions from native tribes or use CDR (which are clearly additional). 8/
kylemeng.com
AB 1207 directs C&T permit revenue towards lowering household electricity prices during the highest use (ie summer) months.

Our @emlab.ucsb.edu analysis shows that this can lower household electricity prices by 13-19% across the state. 7/
emlab.ucsb.edu
kylemeng.com
#4: Making electricity affordable

C&T is the most affordable way to meet CA climate targets.

But C&T permit revenue can also lower CA’s too-high electricity prices, which slow electrification and hinder climate adaptation. 6/