Re-upping this thread about our newly-accepted paper today, since, well, you know, there's a #government #shutdown going on...

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents

Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided

so, if you're interested, here's the preprint link one more time!

osf.io/preprints/ps...

3/

Given recent events and another government shutdown just days away, this underscores why one-size-fits-all messaging often fails and sentiment alone can’t predict how people act under political risk.

2/
This means that disaffected Americans might make riskier decisions when they think there's something to gain, but they avoid risk when objectively equivalent choices are negatively framed--the opposite of what most people do.

1/ Prospect theory says most people are risk-averse, but framing matters and fear of “losing out” pushes us toward risky choices. In two experiments on government shutdown debates in Congress, we find Need for Chaos moderates these gain/loss framing effects.

Here's the title page/abstract for "Mindset to Gain? Framing Effects, Need for Chaos, and the Limits of 'Burning It All Down'", preprint link above:

New (very timely!) paper with Erin Fitz, @stecula.bsky.social,
@matthewhitt.bsky.social & myself, accepted at Behavioural Public Policy entitled "Mindset to Gain? Framing Effects, Need for Chaos, and the Limits of 'Burning It All Down'"--a thread and a link:

osf.io/preprints/ps...

My comments w
@agtheodoridis.bsky.social on unique survey of former members of Congress, which indicates how far views of former GOP officeholders differ from Republican electorate on democratic norms @BrookingsGov www.brookings.edu/articles/wha...

Manuscript accepted!
Manuscript rejected!
(Same day.)

Is Belief in Conspiracies Theories More Prevalent Among Republicans and Conservatives? A recent article in @polbehavior.bsky.social ‬by Enders, Farhart, Miller, Uscinski, Saunders, and Drochon finds the answer is no: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#polisky 🧵(1/7)

reading the charges/preliminary evidence against Tyler Robinson...will not make your day.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

When people tell you who they are, believe them.

shooting people is bad

NYT: Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party (not including Texas, btw), Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.

🔴 Republicans: +2.4M
🔵 Democrats: -2.1M

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/u...

You mostly want your academic work to be relevant...and then...welp... (with @erinfitz.bsky.social)

academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

Huge Sports Law News: Judge Wilken approves the House settlement. A major victory for the NCAA and the big time college sports industry. But it's not the end of the story for athlete legal issues, as other litigation--including Title IX and employment cases--awaits. Here's what you need to know:

"Any speculation about the causes of the decline in trust in elites must grapple with the possibility that many elites are not particularly trustworthy... Elite failure has led even harsh critics of populism to recognize that there is at least some truth to populist complaints"

Link to @axios.com coverage: www.axios.com/2025/05/16/b...

My thoughts below. We have to be better than this.

Bertrand Russell's Ten Commandments
The best answer to fanaticism? *Actual* Liberalism.
The best mode of error correction? *Actual* Liberalism.
I've had a copy of this on the wall by my desk for over 25 years.

More:

Well, I've found the new epigram for our new bitcoin politics book.