@latestsurvivor.bsky.social
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Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected
December 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected
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Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
November 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
old lecture but always needed .. tks
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
November 19, 2025 at 9:44 AM
old lecture but always needed .. tks
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The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
November 18, 2025 at 4:38 PM
The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
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If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
October 30, 2025 at 8:34 PM
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
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Here’s a good chart from Bespoke of how the current period is like 1997, and how it got significantly more euphoric in the years ahead. Don’t mistake this for an analogue
October 12, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Here’s a good chart from Bespoke of how the current period is like 1997, and how it got significantly more euphoric in the years ahead. Don’t mistake this for an analogue
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Here's a doomer collection from Feb 2023. $SPX had already bottomed and rose another +20% by YE. Complete trash
August 21, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Here's a doomer collection from Feb 2023. $SPX had already bottomed and rose another +20% by YE. Complete trash
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Junk bonds say things are looking up. Doesn't preclude interim volatility. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
August 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Junk bonds say things are looking up. Doesn't preclude interim volatility. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
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looks like the trend is up for a while and then a change in the cycle
Core durable goods order shot up during Covid and have since been treading sideways. Retail sales have done the same. This has happened every cycle btw
July 27, 2025 at 2:16 PM
looks like the trend is up for a while and then a change in the cycle
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$SPX golden cross in effect. Next one month is a coin toss but returns >6 mo strongly positive.
July 2, 2025 at 10:36 AM
$SPX golden cross in effect. Next one month is a coin toss but returns >6 mo strongly positive.