Learn Biotech Investing
@learnbiotech.bsky.social
Learn to invest in biotech like the professionals from a former biotech executive and investment banker. For education purposes only.
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
A reason to love #biotech: a company approaching the end (low stock price; near "death") can generate >20x return in a few, or even 1 year!
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM
A reason to love #biotech: a company approaching the end (low stock price; near "death") can generate >20x return in a few, or even 1 year!
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Happy New Year! Investors will see lots of references to the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, JPM, #JPM2026, etc
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
January 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Happy New Year! Investors will see lots of references to the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, JPM, #JPM2026, etc
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
January 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
January 5, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
January 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors can benefit from evaluating a drug the same way pharma does
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 2, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Investors can benefit from evaluating a drug the same way pharma does
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 1, 2026 at 1:02 PM
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must understand the patents which protect a drug. It's essential to determine the drug's revenue opportunity and therefore value
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
December 31, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Investors must understand the patents which protect a drug. It's essential to determine the drug's revenue opportunity and therefore value
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
Sometimes a #reversemerger or #SPAC can result in a high value (>$1B) #biotech buyout. Both ways enable private companies to go public without an #IPO
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 30, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Sometimes a #reversemerger or #SPAC can result in a high value (>$1B) #biotech buyout. Both ways enable private companies to go public without an #IPO
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Reminder: Drug development is hard. People think it's linear, but it's not
Here are schematics of what most people think, what it is in reality, & modifications for small or large molecules
Investors take note: all must work to MAKE a drug, but almost any step can BREAK a drug!
Here are schematics of what most people think, what it is in reality, & modifications for small or large molecules
Investors take note: all must work to MAKE a drug, but almost any step can BREAK a drug!
December 29, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Reminder: Drug development is hard. People think it's linear, but it's not
Here are schematics of what most people think, what it is in reality, & modifications for small or large molecules
Investors take note: all must work to MAKE a drug, but almost any step can BREAK a drug!
Here are schematics of what most people think, what it is in reality, & modifications for small or large molecules
Investors take note: all must work to MAKE a drug, but almost any step can BREAK a drug!
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Defining patient populations matter for investors. Ovarian cancer patient recurrence to 2nd line platinum therapy is influenced by how long their tumor was controlled by 1st line therapy
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
December 26, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Defining patient populations matter for investors. Ovarian cancer patient recurrence to 2nd line platinum therapy is influenced by how long their tumor was controlled by 1st line therapy
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
A key factor in understanding how a biotech drug is reimbursed is assessing where it sits on the formulary (its position)
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 25, 2025 at 10:18 PM
A key factor in understanding how a biotech drug is reimbursed is assessing where it sits on the formulary (its position)
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Consider the half-life of various radio-isotopes used in radiotherapy
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (especially Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (especially Ac-225) are growing fast
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (especially Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (especially Ac-225) are growing fast
December 24, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Consider the half-life of various radio-isotopes used in radiotherapy
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (especially Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (especially Ac-225) are growing fast
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (especially Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (especially Ac-225) are growing fast
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 19, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 18, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 17, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
December 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus