Learn Biotech Investing
@learnbiotech.bsky.social
Learn to invest in biotech like the professionals from a former biotech executive and investment banker. For education purposes only.
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
February 1, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should be aware of "p-hacking" strategies used in data analysis: For biotech, I have come across #s 3, 6, 8-11 too often
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
January 31, 2026 at 10:44 AM
Investors should be aware of "p-hacking" strategies used in data analysis: For biotech, I have come across #s 3, 6, 8-11 too often
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
January 29, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
The #HazardRatio measures the effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest OVER TIME
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
January 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM
The #HazardRatio measures the effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest OVER TIME
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma profitability
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma profitability
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 24, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Drug launches are hard, especially for companies with no experience. Yet its becoming more common
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
January 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Drug launches are hard, especially for companies with no experience. Yet its becoming more common
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 13, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A reason to love #biotech: a company approaching the end (low stock price; near "death") can generate >20x return in a few, or even 1 year!
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM
A reason to love #biotech: a company approaching the end (low stock price; near "death") can generate >20x return in a few, or even 1 year!
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though these deals are few & far between, here are some examples:
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Happy New Year! Investors will see lots of references to the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, JPM, #JPM2026, etc
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
January 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Happy New Year! Investors will see lots of references to the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, JPM, #JPM2026, etc
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
But what is it? Here's a quick overview for those new to the field
There will be lots of news to sift through. Enjoy!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
January 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
January 5, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
January 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech#BiotechPrometheus
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors can benefit from evaluating a drug the same way pharma does
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 2, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Investors can benefit from evaluating a drug the same way pharma does
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
In many cases a biotech's drug will be sold by pharma so understanding what they look for is important to know
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 1, 2026 at 1:02 PM
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus