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Lauren Gilbert

@lgilbert.co

1.7K followers 620 following 870 posts

researcher, writer, projects georg. currently: horizon scanning @ renaissance philanthropy; writer, laurenpolicy.com. formerly: open phil, qi, ucsd, caltech, etc.

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Dec 10

One last "some personal news": I am thrilled to announce I'll be heading back to London in January to join Renaissance Philanthropy. I'll be part of Renaissance’s collaboration with ARIA to strengthen the ecosystem in the UK for high return scientific research.

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 4d

I wrote about some metascience events I think should exist: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/two-metasc...

Two (Meta)science Conferences I Think Should Exist

I go to a lot of conferences. I even go to a reasonable number of conferences on the science of science. I think there are two conferences that should exist and do not.

www.laurenpolicy.com

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 12d

1) Only ~75% of British citizens are in work. Do we want to punish people for studying, having children, or doing care work?
2) On that point, SSP and maternity leave are benefits...
3) Why should people have to volunteer? Isn't the point that volunteering is voluntary?

Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 12d

Mahmood says she will introduce new conditions for indefinite leave to remain:

Lived here 10 years not 5
Being in work
Not taking a penny in benefits
No criminal record
Giving back to community eg volunteering

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 18d

The @thetimes.com & @rcolvile.bsky.social have *finally* amended the CPS's entirely fictional £234 billion figure.

archive.ph/vtfZe

This article was amended on September 22 2025. An earlier version referred to figures from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) saying the net cost to the UK of a cohort applying for indefinite leave to remain is likely to be £234 billion. The figure has been withdrawn and the CPS is working on an update. We are happy to make this clear.

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 18d

If Isaac Chotiner called me for an interview, I would change my name and flee to Mexico.

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 18d

I wrote up a proposal to increase replication capacity while evaluating the reliability of federally-funded science: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/r-randomiz...

R³: Randomized Replication Residency

A proposal to determine the reliability of federally funded science while building out replication capacity

www.laurenpolicy.com

Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 19d

Good to see CPS publicly retracting their nonsense numbers here.

I explained their errors to them when they first published, and wrote it up here - they simply didn't understand what the OBR was saying.

docs.google.com/document/d/e...

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 19d

as for wages, we see reasonably rapid wage growth among recent arrivals (as migrants progress, and low-earning students return home).

Nothing here at all to back up Farage's claims

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 19d

Putting all this together, @lgilbert.co find the following.

It's not that Farage is (just) exaggerating/overstating - he is simply lying about migrants, jobs, wages and benefits.

Media should be very clear about this.

www.laurenpolicy.com/p/are-recent...

The average main applicant who received a visa 2019-2023 made about 45% more than the average person in the UK.

The average dependent who received a visa 2019-2023 made about 25% less than the average person in the UK.

The average person who received a humanitarian visa made about 33% less than the average person in the UK.

When we take a weighted average of all categories of 2019-2023, the average new migrant who arrived 2019-2023 made £24,881 in FY 2023-2024. This is about 4% more than average earnings - even when I have made optimistic assumptions about native-born earnings and excluded any self-employment income for migrants.

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 20d

Good summary of the H-1B situation by @sampeak.bsky.social

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 20d

your periodic reminder that immigrants also consume goods and services

Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 21d

A friend asked me if the new H-1B visa fee will act as a de facto salary filter. I think it will not, and also that it's an incredibly bad idea: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/the-new-h-...

The New H-1B Visa Fee

As you may have read, President Trump announced last night that the issuance of a H-1B visa will now come with a $100,000 fee. This is up from around $3,400, a 25x increase.

www.laurenpolicy.com

Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 23d

Deger is just too famous; he must hide from his hordes of adoring fans!

Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 24d

It also features an idea of mine on replication residencies that train more replicators; full Substack post on this idea coming later this week.

Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 24d

Sam Enright has a post for Progress Ireland on how Ireland could become the world leader in replications.

How can science get more replications?

Smart incentives to fix structural failures.

progressireland.substack.com

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Rachel Navarre @rnavarre.bsky.social · 26d

BIG NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY:

Minerva is now the mayor of the Somerville Bike Path with her winning platform of “crime”.

It is still unclear if she is pro or anti.

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · Sep 8

Unpleasant, ignorant and error-ridden rubbish from Jenni Russell in the Times, arguing for the "remigration" agenda of Jenrick/Lowe

Below quotes nonsense numbers from the Centre for Policy studies that the CPS has itself admitted are fictional..

archive.ph/S6YuV

his February, the Centre for Policy Studies used OBR figures and ONS data to calculate the likely effect. More than two million people will qualify for ILR over the next four years. The CPS reckons 800,000 will settle, at a rate of 624 a day by 2028. At a conservative estimate the net cost to the Treasury over this cohort’s lifetimes will reach £234 billion, or £8,200 for each household in Britain.

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Toby Buckle @polphilpod.bsky.social · Sep 5

in the UK, most immigrants pay a "surcharge" for the NHS (ie taxed twice for it) & are ineligible for most benefits

I wonder if that assuaged anti-migrant fears here? . . . ah

Sharon @sharonk.bsky.social · Sep 5

Second paragraph is fine, first paragraph is... I dunno, man.

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Sep 6

apparently i've had a substack for a year

nine migration pieces & six short essays so far + weekly links

not that I'm biased but I think it's pretty good: laurenpolicy.com

Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Sep 6

andrea

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Sep 5

we have scanned the horizon (ably guided by @metaculus.bsky.social); I am now off to spend some time with some Fabian women

RenPhil’s 2025 Horizon Scanning Study Group

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Sep 5

Most of my pieces are 3000 words of synthesis of the academic literature. In this piece, on educational migration, I actually talked to migrants (specifically @malengo.org scholars who have moved from Uganda to Germany for university): www.laurenpolicy.com/p/what-happe...

What happens when you send Ugandan students to Germany?

Most of this blog is about international migration, and particularly, the economics of international migration.

www.laurenpolicy.com

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Johannes Haushofer @johanneshaushofer.com · Sep 5

Great new blog post by @lgilbert.co about @malengo.org's Uganda–Germany university program! www.laurenpolicy.com/p/what-happe...

What happens when you send Ugandan students to Germany?

Most of this blog is about international migration, and particularly, the economics of international migration.

www.laurenpolicy.com

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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · Sep 4

Ilan Gur introducing the RenPhil Horizon Scanning Study Group

A group of scientists in a conference room

Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · Aug 28

Very good piece from @bengoldsborough.bsky.social. More of this please.

www.politics.co.uk/mp-comment/2...

Nigel Farage and Reform UK would break what makes Britain strong

When Nigel Farage stood up this week and outlined his so-called “plan” for immigration, he didn’t sound like a democrat. He sounded like Vladimir Putin. He called for uniformed officers to raid Britai...

www.politics.co.uk

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Reposted by Lauren Gilbert

David Evans @daveevansphd.bsky.social · Aug 26

Remember: violence in school isn't a reason to keep kids out of school. Out-of-school kids usually experience *more* violence, not less (www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....).

It *is* a reason to make schools safer!

David Evans @daveevansphd.bsky.social · Aug 26

Violence in and around schools is all too common. It's even worse against children with disabilities.

www.cgdev.org/blog/three-l...

@gsmarrelli.bsky.social and I reflect on lessons from a recent systematic review (by Eldred and others) of school-based interventions.

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