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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social

370 followers 300 following 220 posts

Researcher @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social & leading #STAND | once @csds.bsky.social, @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social, the CSS @ethz.ch or @belfercenter.bsky.social | nukes | transatlantic stuff | qual & archives buff

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · Jul 7

Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.

Britain's Opposition to German Reunification, 1989–1990: The Fine Line between Strategic, Political, and Personal Factors

Great Britain had no interest in a reunified Germany, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), in a sec...

direct.mit.edu

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

For everyone not celebrating German Unity Day with a suspiciously large beer stein today – here’s your alternative buzz: fresh nuclear & space analysis from us at @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND 🍻🚀☢️. And hey, they probably go surprisingly well after one or two of those steins too 😄🤓.

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

SATCOM & Bundeswehr, Russia’s upgraded missiles, Iran's nuclear program, DPRK & South Korea, AI & tech race & more in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social, on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

The US State Department’s Office of the Historian released a new volume of 1989–1991 historical documents on the START I treaty, edited by @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social. Nuclear buffs, geeks & nerds, we know what you’ll do this weekend! 10/10

Historical Documents - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

A @tnsr.org roundtable chaired by @laurensukin.bsky.social & @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social features 7 essays on shifting nuclear security in Europe, Latin America, Middle East, South Asia, China & Korea - how US-China rivalry & domestic politics reshape deterrence, alliances & proliferation 9/10

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...

tnsr.org

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

AI could fuel a tech arms race between proliferation-enabling & detection-enhancing tools - favoring the former & straining conventional monitoring & verification methods, which poses risks to nonproliferation, analyze @herzogsm.bsky.social & David Allison @socriskanalysis.bsky.social 8/10

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility

A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

Before engaging with Pyongyang, the US should consider DPRK’s past focus on allied diplomacy, argues Choong-Koo Lee @warontherocks.bsky.social t.ly/xPdyG, while Chang-young Lee suggests South Korea decreases its dependency on the US by expanding its ISR capabilities t.ly/eJ5eh 7/10

Negotiating with North Korea in the Shadow of Great Power Rivalry

The United States and South Korea have converged on the idea of dialogue with North Korea. But can it work? Will it? U.S. President Donald Trump has

t.ly

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

The Trump administration should seize Putin’s offer to cap nukes, push for on-site inspections & data exchanges & use the time to explore ways with Russia & China to cut nuclear risks - from political commitments to executive agreements, argues @matthew-bunn.bsky.social @thebulletin.org 6/10

Putin just gave Trump the opportunity to maintain nuclear restraint. Will he seize it?

Extending New START will also give time for Trump to work with Russia and China on future arms control accords.

thebulletin.org

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

Satellite images show renewed construction at a buried military site near Iran’s Natanz - the purpose remains unclear according to experts, reports @washingtonpost.com t.ly/wIRWX, while Iran & Russia struck a deal to build 4 nuclear power plants, reports @aljazeera.com t.ly/vlQVd4/10 5/10

After U.S. strikes, Iran increases work at mysterious underground site

Satellite imagery indicates Iran is increasing construction at a deeply buried site in Pickaxe Mountain, just south of the Natanz nuclear facility hit by Israeli and U.S. strikes in June.

t.ly

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

After Tehran’s failure to meet the demands of the E3 (Germany, UK & France), the UNSC reimposed sanctions addressing threats posed by Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile, conventional arms, and other destabilizing activities, reports @financialtimes.com 4/10

Iran hit with reimposition of sanctions over its nuclear programme

Tehran says other nations should ‘refuse to recognise this illegal act’

www.ft.com

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

Plummeting ballistic missile interception rates & DIA’s report earlier this summer suggest Russia upgraded Iskander-M mobile systems & Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles to evade Patriot systems by tweaking software for a steeper terminal trajectory, reports @financialtimes.com 3/10

Russian missile upgrade outpaces Ukraine’s Patriot defences

Kyiv’s interception rates fall as enemy strikes dodge US interceptors in final seconds

www.ft.com

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

Arianespace signed a contract with Airbus Defence and Space to launch two Airbus-built SATCOMBw Stage 3 satellites, a system for secure military communication for the German Bundeswehr, reports @hartpunkt.bsky.social 2/10

SATCOMBw: Arianespace mit Satellitenstart beauftragt

Der europäische Anbieter von Trägerraketenstarts, Arianespace, hat in der vergangenen Woche einen Vertrag mit Airbus Defence and Space zum Start von zwei

www.hartpunkt.de

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 5d

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Reposted by Liviu Horovitz

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

How are alliances like AUKUS and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea reshaping the nuclear order? @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social introduce the essays and explore the effects of domestic politics and global competition.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"The Evolving Global Landscape of Nuclear Security" by Lauren Sukin and Rohan Mukherjee

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Reposted by Liviu Horovitz

James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 8d

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!

Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989-1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989-1991

Editor: James Graham Wilson

General Editor: Kathleen B. Rasmussen

Department of State
Washington
2025

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 9d

What do geeks and dorks do late at night? Read the newest FRUS 🤣.

Historical Documents - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

Reposted by Liviu Horovitz

Theresa Hitchens @thitch.bsky.social · 13d

This is a big deal for Germany. I remember when no German politician would be willing to mention the words space and military in the same paragraph, much less the same sentence. breakingdefense.com/2025/09/germ...

German military to invest $41B in space capabilities - Breaking Defense

"Satellite networks today are an Achilles' heel of modern societies. Whoever attacks them paralyzes entire nations,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.

breakingdefense.com

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

The American public is more supportive of nuclear use than the US national security elite — a divide that may be explained by low salience and low knowledge, finds @davidclogan.bsky.social @iojournal.bsky.social 10/10

Elite–Public Gaps on Nuclear Weapons: The Roles of Salience and Knowledge | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Elite–Public Gaps on Nuclear Weapons: The Roles of Salience and Knowledge - Volume 79 Issue 3

www.cambridge.org

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

The nonproliferation regime remains a US interest, but the architecture should be adjusted by re-configuring security alliances, pursuing risk-reduction with foes & harnessing new technologies, suggest Mariano Tino Cuéllar, @ernestmoniz.bsky.social & Meghan O’Sullivan @foreignaffairs.com 9/10

The Proliferation Problem Is Back

Washington must adapt its playbook for a new era of nuclear risk.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

A SLCM-N fitted the old US strategy of controlling escalation by threatening limited nuclear use, but today’s posture aims to prevent adversary use with conventional means under the nuclear threshold, so the US should focus on modernization instead, argues John Maurer @warontherocks.bsky.social 8/10

Don’t Make a Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile a Priority

In recent months, intensifying conflict around the world has called new attention to the possibility of military confrontation between nuclear-armed

warontherocks.com

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

A new @unidir.org report by Tamara Patton & @russianforces.org proposes the concept of ‘demonstrable verification’ to show compliance in the absence of agreed verification measures for nuclear arms control and space security 7/10

Verification Without a Treaty → UNIDIR

In the established practice of nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements, verification provisions are negotiated as part of a treaty to provide States with a mechanism to assess compliance and t...

unidir.org

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

China has been hardening its official stance during international conferences after brandishing its nuclear triad, military hardware, and personnel at the parade — signaling a prolonged era of rivalry with the US, argues Brian Spegele @wsj.com 6/10

China Hardens Military Stance Against U.S. With Nuclear Weapons and Tough Talk

Beijing has put its firepower on display in recent weeks, including by parading its nuclear weapons, while also hardening its rhetoric on thorny issues.

www.wsj.com

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

Following the Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar, Pakistan & Saudi Arabia signed a defense pact under which Islamabad seems to have more or less officially placed the Kingdom under its nuclear umbrella, reports @APNews 5/10

Pakistan says its nuclear program can be made available to Saudi Arabia under defense pact

Pakistan’s defense minister says that his nation’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed under the countries’ new defense pact.

apnews.com

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

Putin wants one more year of New START limits after expiration, but only if US reciprocates & avoids steps that undermine strategic stability. Experts argue this could be aimed at avoiding having to channel resources away from Ukraine & preventing advances on Golden Dome, reports @nytimes.com 4/10

Putin Proposes One More Year of Nuclear Caps With U.S.

www.nytimes.com

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

After Russia’s airspace incursions, Poland again signaled interest in nuclear-sharing, including with France, reports #EUToday t.ly/2ObmI, while Tallinn would be open in principle to hosting UK’s nuclear-capable F-35As (but UK sources skeptical), reports @telegraphnews.bsky.social t.ly/7WKF6 3/10

Poland signals interest in nuclear sharing after Russian drone incursions - https://eutoday.net

Speaking in a televised interview with France’s LCI on 16–17 September, Mr Nawrocki said Poland should be ready to host allied nuclear weapons and indicated

t.ly

Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

German Defense Minister Pistorius announced a 35 billion Euro investment plan into space security capabilities - satellite constellations, ground stations, launch & offensive capabilities such as jamming. Germany also aims to become ESA's top contributor, reports #Handelsblatt 2/10

Handelsblatt

www.handelsblatt.com

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Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 12d

Nuclear-sharing, Germany & space, New START, Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, China & US, verification, SLCM-N, nonproliferation & more in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social, on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10

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