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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Rein Houben @reinhouben.bsky.social · 1d

In a new preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we continue to explore the challenge of overtreatment in community screening. It seems the benefits of TB treatment far outweigh the harms, especially once we accept that sputum culture is not perfect. Important food for thought. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Do no harm - re-evaluating the risks of overtreatment in community-wide tuberculosis screening

Background Community-wide screening is a crucial strategy to end tuberculosis (TB), but a common concern is potential harm from overtreatment following false positive diagnoses. However, current refer...

www.medrxiv.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 27d

Our work on modelling population-wide screening in Viet Nam is now available in PLOS Global Public Health! tinyurl.com/3ymhuj5s

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 16d

Our systematic review of rural/urban differences in #TB prevalence shows evidence of rapidly urbanising epidemics in many settings, with differences across countries and regions.

Link to preprint below ⬇️

Peter MacPherson @petermacp.bsky.social · 16d

Are there more people with #TB in cities or rural areas?

In a 🚨new🚨 preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we modelled urban-rural TB trends from 2000-2023 in 26 countries with 4.6 billion people.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

A plot, facetted by country, showing the percentage of TB that is urban and rural between 2000-2023

A forest plot, showing estimates of the urban to rural TB prevalence in 46 studies

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 22d

1/ It’s been 10 years (😮) since we reported that #TB prevalence was twice as high in men as in women.

📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care.

bit.ly/4gqP1LH

Differences in Tuberculosis Prevalence by Sex Over 1993-2024: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence is higher among men than women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, summary measures of sex difference

bit.ly

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Matthew Saunders @mjsaunder.bsky.social · 28d

So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we hypothetically "eliminated" undernutrition? In this preprint, we combined estimates from our new review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(doi.org/10.1101/2025...)

Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence averted by eliminating undernutrition in adults: a modelling study

Background Current efforts to reduce global tuberculosis incidence have proved insufficient, highlighting that urgent action is needed to address underlying modifiable risk factors such as undernutrit...

doi.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Matthew Saunders @mjsaunder.bsky.social · 29d

Nutritional status is a key determinant of TB. In this updated systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis (43 cohorts inc > 26 million people) we redefined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and TB. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...

Body mass index and tuberculosis risk: an updated systematic literature review and dose–response meta-analysis

AbstractBackground. The relationship between nutritional status and tuberculosis is critically important but poorly understood. We extended a 2009 review c

doi.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Sep 5

At a time when global resources for #TB research, development, prevention, and care are limited, which interventions should be prioritised in high burden settings?

📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n

bit.ly/3V3vXth

The potential impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - a modelling exercise

Background While a range of interventions exist for tuberculosis prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment, their potential population impact and cost-effectiveness are seldom directly compared,...

bit.ly

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Aug 27

Community screening for #tuberculosis could extend the reach of #TB services, but evidence on its effectiveness is limited.

In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n

bit.ly/3UK7pFD

Exploring trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis

Background Current tuberculosis (TB) prevention and care strategies have failed to reduce disease burden at the pace required to meet global targets. Community screening may enable more rapid declines...

www.medrxiv.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Kate LeGrand @lekate.bsky.social · Jul 15

Our new study examines social contact patterns in urban, peri-urban, and rural communities and their implications for #TB interventions like household contact tracing, infection prevention, and cluster RCTs. #MedSky #EpiSky #IDsky #TBSky

Read more in @plosglobalpublichealth.org

Within-country heterogeneity in patterns of social contact relevant for tuberculosis infection transmission, prevention, and care

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is driven by variable social, environmental, and biological factors, including the number and duration of indoor contacts. Social contact data can provide...

doi.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Jul 14

Our work estimating the potential impacts of reductions in international donor funding for #TB is now out in @lancetgh.bsky.social:

bit.ly/3TDl28T

@raclark18.bsky.social @cfmcquaid.bsky.social @alexandra-richards.bsky.social @top-j.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @richardwhite321.bsky.social

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Jul 2

New systematic review led by @hannahrickman.bsky.social shows annual risk of Mycobacterium #tuberculosis conversion in men and women diverges during adolescence and remains higher among men throughout adulthood.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

The figure shows two graphs, both with age on the x-axis and separate curves for males and females. In the top figure, the y-axis shows prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity; in the bottom figure, the y-axis shows annual risk of Mtb conversion. In both figures, the curves for males and females diverge from adolescence and remain higher for men than women through adulthood.

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Jul 4

In our latest personal view in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, we argue for the inclusion asymptomatic #tuberculosis in vaccine trial endpoints to potentially reduce the size, length, and cost of trials.

doi.org/10.1016/S221...

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Figure 1. Estimated number of trial endpoints in the control group of a prevention-of-disease vaccine trial in a high disease-burden setting showing number of endpoints on the y-axis and time in months on the x-axis. For bacteriologically confirmed symptomatic tuberculosis disease endpoints only, we estimate 69 endpoints, and for combined bacteriologically confirmed asymptomatic and symptomatic tuberculosis disease endpoints, we estimate 151 endpoints. Scenario assumes symptomatic disease incidence before trial screening of 300/100 000 per year and following 10 000 individuals over 3 years. Prevalent symptomatic and asymptomatic tuberculosis disease are screened out in month 0 and are not trial endpoints. Active screening occurs every 6 months for both scenarios and participants self-presenting with symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis disease would also be investigated.

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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · Jun 19

Happening tomorrow! Come join us!

LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · May 28

Can you believe it’s already been 25 years!?

Come join us on 20 June 2025 at 4pm UK time to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to #Infectious Disease #Modelling course delivered by @lshtm.bsky.social and @ukhsa.bsky.social!

More info 👉 www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

25th anniversary celebrations of the Introduction to Infectious Disease

Our special event will celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and its Applications course, delivered by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

www.lshtm.ac.uk

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · May 30

TB & climate change: @who.int report out now, building on an analytical framework we developed to explore the intersections and implications for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease www.who.int/publications...

Tuberculosis and climate change: analytical framework and knowledge gaps

This report explores the intersection of tuberculosis (TB) and climate change, highlighting how climate-related challenges such as food and water insecurity, displacement, and disrupted healthcare acc...

www.who.int

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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · May 28

The event will feature a #keynote from Professor Neil Ferguson and short presentations from course alumni followed by a reception in the #PumphandleSocial for food, drinks, and networking 🎉

Looking forward to you joining us either in-person or online!

@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social

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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · May 28

Can you believe it’s already been 25 years!?

Come join us on 20 June 2025 at 4pm UK time to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to #Infectious Disease #Modelling course delivered by @lshtm.bsky.social and @ukhsa.bsky.social!

More info 👉 www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

25th anniversary celebrations of the Introduction to Infectious Disease

Our special event will celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and its Applications course, delivered by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

www.lshtm.ac.uk

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Rein Houben @reinhouben.bsky.social · May 27

Amid all the bad news in Global Health, perhaps some good news? A first analysis on the risk of false positive diagnoses in community-screening for tuberculosis using Xpert shows our clinic-based data is likely (very) wrong and overestimates false positives by >80%: tinyurl.com/yfecute9.

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · May 20

Postdoc (London, UK)
Position available in the world-leading tuberculosis (TB) Modelling group at LSHTM
with @raclark18.bsky.social‬ @richardwhite321.bsky.social
at LSHTM @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2314

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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · May 16

Feel free to get in touch with @raclark18.bsky.social and @richardwhite321.bsky.social to chat about the opportunity

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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · May 16

Are you interested in #TB and have experience in #modelling infectious diseases?

Come join us in the TB Modelling Group at #LSHTM!

We're advertising for a 1 year Research Fellow position, with a closing date of 30 May 2025 👉 jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Job Opportunity at LSHTM: Research Fellow

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is a world-leading centre for research and postgraduate education in public and global health. Our mission is to is to improve health and healt...

jobs.lshtm.ac.uk

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Apr 27

Reductions in contributions to The Global Fund in line with current announcements by the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany may lead to an additional 699,200, 63,100, 50,500, and 30,500 TB deaths, respectively. (See table for episodes of disease and other donor countries.) 4/8

Table showing excess symptomatic TB episodes and excess TB deaths expected for different funding scenarios, including termination of USAID funding and reductions in Global Fund funding in line with expected reductions in donor countries' overseas development assistance.

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Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Apr 27

#Tuberculosis prevention and care relies heavily on international donor funding in many settings. In our latest preprint, we examine the potential impact of reductions in international donor funding for #TB - by the US and by other major donor countries. 1/8

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

The potential impact of reductions in international donor funding on tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries

Background Tuberculosis services in many settings rely heavily on international donor funding. In 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) was dismantled, and other countri...

www.medrxiv.org

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Apr 22

Modelling projects the devastating impacts of US funding cuts, including our estimates of #TB incidence and deaths @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Alt CDC (they/them) @altcdc.altgov.info · Apr 21

A Lancet preprint estimates that if US funding is cut and not replaced, from 2025-2040 there will be 15.2 mil add'l AIDS deaths, 2.2 mil add'l TB deaths, 7.9 mil add'l child deaths from other causes, and 40-55 mil add'l unplanned pregnancies.

@altusaid.altgov.info

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

A line graph of estimated AIDS-related deaths from 2025 through 2040 in 55 PEPFAR-supported countries. The Y axis is estimated number of deaths and ranges from 200,000 to 2 million. The X axis is years and ranges from 2010 to 2040. There is a black line labeled “historical trend” from 2010 to 2025 showing a decrease in deaths from 1.2 million to ~420,000. Then in 2025 the black line splits into three scenarios: 1) a dashed green line showing deaths if USAID were to increase, 2) a dashed blue line showing deaths if USAID remained at 2024 levels, and 3) a dashed red line showing deaths if USAID stopped and was not replaced. In scenario 1 (funding increased) deaths continue to decrease from ~420,000 to 200,000. In scenario 2 (funding stays the same) deaths stay the same at 420,000. In scenario 3 (funding cut and not replaced) deaths increase from ~420,000 to 1.7 million.

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Peter MacPherson @petermacp.bsky.social · Apr 2

New preprint led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social & @kchorton.bsky.social from @lightontb.bsky.social

Eliminating men’s excess risks for #TB & improving access to treatment to comparable rates to women could have major gains for men, women & children.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

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Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · Apr 9

New pre-print modelling impact of US funding cuts on HIV, #TB, MCH and family planning. We estimate impact of termination of US funding to NTPs via #USAID & The Global Fund may lead to 2.2 (1.5-2.9) million excess TB deaths between 2025 and 2040, reversing over a decade of progress.

bit.ly/4lowp18

Line chart showing median number of TB deaths in 79 low- and middle-income countries from 2010 through 2040. A black line shows a decline from 1.25 million deaths in 2010 to just under 1 million deaths in 2024. A blue line shows the number of deaths staying constant through 2040 if 2024 funding and programmes are maintained. A red line shows the number of deaths increasing to 1.2 million in 2040 if US funding to national TB programmes is terminated.

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