Lucas Gonzalez
@lucasgonzalez.bsky.social
A #H5N1BadSoonScenario Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemic/H5N1BadSoonScenario would require at least Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemic/Adjusters or better and
Resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf or better. HOW can we help that happen?
Resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf or better. HOW can we help that happen?
Please see my thread in response to Conor's post. The Deborah Ann Woll video "what do you do" meme is youtu.be/JpVJZrabMQE which is a 9 min watch that I fully recommend. Then, apply to #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Wanna play? Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/PandemicFluGame
June 11, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Please see my thread in response to Conor's post. The Deborah Ann Woll video "what do you do" meme is youtu.be/JpVJZrabMQE which is a 9 min watch that I fully recommend. Then, apply to #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Wanna play? Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/PandemicFluGame
Here is a summary of SCIM, and the page in resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf where I played with the idea of a training module to bring the willing up to speed, just in case that helps as one more way to facilitate sensible & creative collaboration in a long disruptive crisis.
June 11, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Here is a summary of SCIM, and the page in resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf where I played with the idea of a training module to bring the willing up to speed, just in case that helps as one more way to facilitate sensible & creative collaboration in a long disruptive crisis.
For what it's worth, I have a draft of explainer videos to teach the SCIM mini-language in 2 hours to potentially millions of people. I so hope it's never tested under real fire.
April 20, 2025 at 5:58 PM
For what it's worth, I have a draft of explainer videos to teach the SCIM mini-language in 2 hours to potentially millions of people. I so hope it's never tested under real fire.
Here it is, the Pandemic Severity Index: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemi...
April 3, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Here it is, the Pandemic Severity Index: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemi...
> We also need to "just talk out loud" [like @heinonmatti.bsky.social 's cartoon image strongly suggests] about what's going on and about what's possible (good, bad and interesting). And be the stubborn minority of The Power of Inflexibility: mattiheino.com/2020/04/12/i... Add "focus on scale"?
April 3, 2025 at 4:26 AM
> We also need to "just talk out loud" [like @heinonmatti.bsky.social 's cartoon image strongly suggests] about what's going on and about what's possible (good, bad and interesting). And be the stubborn minority of The Power of Inflexibility: mattiheino.com/2020/04/12/i... Add "focus on scale"?
Risk to _all_ people 🌐. And when some notice 41% of people believe the pandemic is still ongoing (just like the WHO, btw), maybe we need to capitalise on that as @heinonmatti.bsky.social suggests. And then use the energy of 1% of 1% of 1% of us to build the vision: open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/...
March 10, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Risk to _all_ people 🌐. And when some notice 41% of people believe the pandemic is still ongoing (just like the WHO, btw), maybe we need to capitalise on that as @heinonmatti.bsky.social suggests. And then use the energy of 1% of 1% of 1% of us to build the vision: open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/...
www.appropedia.org/The_Future_W... was an exploration done ages ago (needs, then systems. A few days ago, I tickled a two AIs for aerosol stuff: open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/.... (Next AI piece: distributed consultation.) Maybe many share that vision quietly, a bit like in Matti Heinon's picture?
March 8, 2025 at 12:11 AM
www.appropedia.org/The_Future_W... was an exploration done ages ago (needs, then systems. A few days ago, I tickled a two AIs for aerosol stuff: open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/.... (Next AI piece: distributed consultation.) Maybe many share that vision quietly, a bit like in Matti Heinon's picture?
"The future of woodworking rests securely in the hands of amateurs. -- Paul Sellers." Just like #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I may add. Best wishes, everyone! 🌐
March 3, 2025 at 5:26 PM
"The future of woodworking rests securely in the hands of amateurs. -- Paul Sellers." Just like #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I may add. Best wishes, everyone! 🌐
To my retired epidemiologist eyes, this implies we need to acknowledge the very real possibility of, for want of a better analogy, waking up when the show has already started. My assumption is that will happen to most people. That's why I've done a couple of decades of work on fire-exit strategy.
March 2, 2025 at 9:54 AM
To my retired epidemiologist eyes, this implies we need to acknowledge the very real possibility of, for want of a better analogy, waking up when the show has already started. My assumption is that will happen to most people. That's why I've done a couple of decades of work on fire-exit strategy.
This was... intriguing. It started slow, and a few minutes later... code. 🤔
February 12, 2025 at 10:31 PM
This was... intriguing. It started slow, and a few minutes later... code. 🤔
I'm using DeepSeek, and have used ChatGPT, to summarise stuff I know about (SCIM & OODA), and to explore stuff (cooperative thinking at scale) that is complex and of which I have the broad vision but find the details tedious or overwhelming or below my paygrade.
February 12, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I'm using DeepSeek, and have used ChatGPT, to summarise stuff I know about (SCIM & OODA), and to explore stuff (cooperative thinking at scale) that is complex and of which I have the broad vision but find the details tedious or overwhelming or below my paygrade.
If a mutant or reassortant flu becomes pandemic, aerosol transmission needs no further proof. I'm sure current H5N1 does already reach our cells via aerosol transmission... knocks at our cells' doors & can't get in... yet. The amount of 🎲 going on in cows... does it make random become deterministic?
February 4, 2025 at 11:16 AM
If a mutant or reassortant flu becomes pandemic, aerosol transmission needs no further proof. I'm sure current H5N1 does already reach our cells via aerosol transmission... knocks at our cells' doors & can't get in... yet. The amount of 🎲 going on in cows... does it make random become deterministic?
We don’t need to trust DeepSeek, & could someone please check in different ways... but if the number of respiratory contacts is 2-5X, & it is in schools, then we're going to need communities to apply this kind of strategies. Which communities may or may not have thought by themselves. No either/or.
February 1, 2025 at 11:21 PM
We don’t need to trust DeepSeek, & could someone please check in different ways... but if the number of respiratory contacts is 2-5X, & it is in schools, then we're going to need communities to apply this kind of strategies. Which communities may or may not have thought by themselves. No either/or.
Shared spaces (corridors, toilets, lunch room, bus) __multiply that by 2-5__.
Ruralised schools = classrooms relocated in the neighbourhood, no shared spaces + good masks when in transit (0.5-1 hours/day).
A tool for an old idea: {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf}
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Ruralised schools = classrooms relocated in the neighbourhood, no shared spaces + good masks when in transit (0.5-1 hours/day).
A tool for an old idea: {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf}
2/2
February 1, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Shared spaces (corridors, toilets, lunch room, bus) __multiply that by 2-5__.
Ruralised schools = classrooms relocated in the neighbourhood, no shared spaces + good masks when in transit (0.5-1 hours/day).
A tool for an old idea: {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf}
2/2
Ruralised schools = classrooms relocated in the neighbourhood, no shared spaces + good masks when in transit (0.5-1 hours/day).
A tool for an old idea: {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf}
2/2
I'd like to add a tool for "quantitative cheese layers" to {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-spreadsheet-English.xls} and {appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/Reduce} In a school with 400 students in 20 classrooms, each student has 20 contacts including the teacher. #H5N1BadSoonScenario
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February 1, 2025 at 10:59 PM
I'd like to add a tool for "quantitative cheese layers" to {resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-spreadsheet-English.xls} and {appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/Reduce} In a school with 400 students in 20 classrooms, each student has 20 contacts including the teacher. #H5N1BadSoonScenario
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Anticipation is essential to speed.
January 31, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Anticipation is essential to speed.
I pay attention to one specific scenario, which is #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I.e. what AR mentions (2% lethality) _or higher_, plus deaths from self-augmented disruption (anything from insulin to masks to food). Not from fear or predictions, just common sense: "if big fire, EXIT". youtu.be/mHravkt9o3w
January 31, 2025 at 11:50 AM
I pay attention to one specific scenario, which is #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I.e. what AR mentions (2% lethality) _or higher_, plus deaths from self-augmented disruption (anything from insulin to masks to food). Not from fear or predictions, just common sense: "if big fire, EXIT". youtu.be/mHravkt9o3w
I ask because I don't know. What if opportunities for mutation are proportional to the mass of infected cells? How many tonnes of cow are infected? @thijskuiken.bsky.social @barryhunt008.bsky.social @ejustin46.bsky.social @brownecfm.bsky.social @fla-medic.bsky.social @tryangregory.bsky.social
January 31, 2025 at 12:13 AM
I ask because I don't know. What if opportunities for mutation are proportional to the mass of infected cells? How many tonnes of cow are infected? @thijskuiken.bsky.social @barryhunt008.bsky.social @ejustin46.bsky.social @brownecfm.bsky.social @fla-medic.bsky.social @tryangregory.bsky.social
"Needs, then systems." Last night I told DeepSeek to explain SCIM exactly from that angle, and it did a more than decent job. resiliencemaps.org So, now what? I've been looking at #H5N1BadSoonScenario in even deeper ways, and will write more. But just for now, maybe read the 🐋 's summary? It's deep.
January 28, 2025 at 10:18 AM
"Needs, then systems." Last night I told DeepSeek to explain SCIM exactly from that angle, and it did a more than decent job. resiliencemaps.org So, now what? I've been looking at #H5N1BadSoonScenario in even deeper ways, and will write more. But just for now, maybe read the 🐋 's summary? It's deep.
The above is for #H5N1BadSoonScenario, which, were it to start any time soon, would catch the world by "surprise", because we'd likely* know it's "on" only when there's no stopping it. *according to numerical models of "time to detect community transmission"). Q: Which image represents your mood? /3
January 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
The above is for #H5N1BadSoonScenario, which, were it to start any time soon, would catch the world by "surprise", because we'd likely* know it's "on" only when there's no stopping it. *according to numerical models of "time to detect community transmission"). Q: Which image represents your mood? /3
Imagine if instead of "What's up today?", social network prompts could be personalised or random. Would you prefer "how are you feeling?", "what are you learning?", "what is your goal?", "who can you help?", "what do you need?", "what's on your mind?" or what? #firstprinciples
January 20, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Imagine if instead of "What's up today?", social network prompts could be personalised or random. Would you prefer "how are you feeling?", "what are you learning?", "what is your goal?", "who can you help?", "what do you need?", "what's on your mind?" or what? #firstprinciples
bsky.app/profile/mart... more on what I would like to read... one day. Seriously, I'm now in Indiana territory. (See alt text.)
January 19, 2025 at 3:05 PM
bsky.app/profile/mart... more on what I would like to read... one day. Seriously, I'm now in Indiana territory. (See alt text.)
"Don't chase your dreams. Humans are persistence hunters. Follow your dreams at a sustainable pace until they get tired and lie down."
January 14, 2025 at 10:30 PM
"Don't chase your dreams. Humans are persistence hunters. Follow your dreams at a sustainable pace until they get tired and lie down."
#H5N1BadSoonScenario is not about predicting, but rather about figuring out some sort of way out.
January 13, 2025 at 8:55 PM
#H5N1BadSoonScenario is not about predicting, but rather about figuring out some sort of way out.
"As somebody who has gone back and forth with this, you really only need like two weeks replacing screen time with reading to get your attention span back. You’re not permanently fucked and resetting is easier than you think. Put down your phone and pick up a book."
January 13, 2025 at 11:37 AM
"As somebody who has gone back and forth with this, you really only need like two weeks replacing screen time with reading to get your attention span back. You’re not permanently fucked and resetting is easier than you think. Put down your phone and pick up a book."