Lucas Gonzalez
@lucasgonzalez.bsky.social
A #H5N1BadSoonScenario Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemic/H5N1BadSoonScenario would require at least Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemic/Adjusters or better and
Resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf or better. HOW can we help that happen?
Resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf or better. HOW can we help that happen?
Pinned
Lucas Gonzalez
@lucasgonzalez.bsky.social
· Dec 23
Change the phrasing: Community spread will be detected only after it's been going for weeks. Even in the UK, even if severe. So our preparedness window must be seen in negative numbers: once we see community transmission, we have MINUS SEVERAL WEEKS TO PREPARE. Do you get it? Do you?
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `WPRO Table-Top Exercise Crystal: A `Bovine' Novel Flu Outbreak Scenario' #H5N1 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/12/wpro...
WPRO Table-Top Exercise Crystal: A `Bovine' Novel Flu Outbreak Scenario
Credit Hong Kong CHP #18,969 Nearly two decades ago - during the first ominous flare up of H5N1 in Southeast Asia - pandemic drills were q...
afludiary.blogspot.com
December 3, 2025 at 11:57 AM
AFD Blog `WPRO Table-Top Exercise Crystal: A `Bovine' Novel Flu Outbreak Scenario' #H5N1 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/12/wpro...
Prompts for your favourite AI:
Summarise www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati..., then summarise specifically the planning assumptions, then rewrite the planning assumptions based on updated knowledge about aerosol transmission and for a wide range of severity scenarios
Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response
The aim of this framework is to guide a scalable public health response to influenza of zoonotic origin in EU/EEA countries and provide options for preparing and responding to different possible pre-p...
www.ecdc.europa.eu
December 5, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Prompts for your favourite AI:
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `ECDC Pre-pandemic Guidance: Strategies to Fight Avian and Swine flu in Humans' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/12/ecdc... Highly Recommended
ECDC Pre-pandemic Guidance: Strategies to Fight Avian and Swine flu in Humans
#18,871 Today the ECDC has released an impressive 71-page operations framework for European countries to use when dealing with outbreaks of...
afludiary.blogspot.com
December 4, 2025 at 11:03 AM
AFD Blog `ECDC Pre-pandemic Guidance: Strategies to Fight Avian and Swine flu in Humans' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/12/ecdc... Highly Recommended
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
summarise www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr..., then summarise specifically the planning assumptions, then rewrite the planning assumptions based on updated knowledge about aerosol transmission and for a wide range of severity scenarios
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
www.england.nhs.uk
December 5, 2025 at 9:51 PM
summarise www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr..., then summarise specifically the planning assumptions, then rewrite the planning assumptions based on updated knowledge about aerosol transmission and for a wide range of severity scenarios
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
Summarise www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati..., then summarise specifically the planning assumptions, then rewrite the planning assumptions based on updated knowledge about aerosol transmission and for a wide range of severity scenarios
Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response
The aim of this framework is to guide a scalable public health response to influenza of zoonotic origin in EU/EEA countries and provide options for preparing and responding to different possible pre-p...
www.ecdc.europa.eu
December 5, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Summarise www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati..., then summarise specifically the planning assumptions, then rewrite the planning assumptions based on updated knowledge about aerosol transmission and for a wide range of severity scenarios
I come to this platform rarely at the moment. Just to keep the lights on for #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Greetings, everyone.
November 1, 2025 at 11:27 AM
I come to this platform rarely at the moment. Just to keep the lights on for #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Greetings, everyone.
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
6. This is why I always think of viruses, for example, as molecular sharks. They just 'want' one thing: to replicate. As such, their mutation and subsequent adaptation will always be aimed towards that goal. It goes without saying that none of our beliefs as humans changes that.
November 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
6. This is why I always think of viruses, for example, as molecular sharks. They just 'want' one thing: to replicate. As such, their mutation and subsequent adaptation will always be aimed towards that goal. It goes without saying that none of our beliefs as humans changes that.
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
1. The possibility of low-level human to human transmission of H5N1 occurring under the radar is something that has concerned me for several months now.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu
October 31, 2025 at 11:03 AM
1. The possibility of low-level human to human transmission of H5N1 occurring under the radar is something that has concerned me for several months now.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `EM&I: Detection of Clade 2.3.4.4b #H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus in a #Sheep in Great Britain, 2025' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/09/em-d...
afludiary.blogspot.com
September 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
AFD Blog `EM&I: Detection of Clade 2.3.4.4b #H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus in a #Sheep in Great Britain, 2025' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/09/em-d...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
11. These three factors: lack of triggering the human disgust mechanism, inability to be generalised, and lack of widespread understanding of sequelae of infection all contribute to the societal denial of the dangers of Covid-19.
/end
/end
August 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
11. These three factors: lack of triggering the human disgust mechanism, inability to be generalised, and lack of widespread understanding of sequelae of infection all contribute to the societal denial of the dangers of Covid-19.
/end
/end
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
1. I've said exactly this for quite some time. Expanding on Adrian's @sillyputty78.bsky.social point on X / Twitter here, Covid-19 has three distinct characteristics as a disease that enables it to be denied at a societal level.
August 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
1. I've said exactly this for quite some time. Expanding on Adrian's @sillyputty78.bsky.social point on X / Twitter here, Covid-19 has three distinct characteristics as a disease that enables it to be denied at a societal level.
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `Ireland & Scotland Now Reporting #H5N1 Outbreaks' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/08/irel...
Ireland & Scotland Now Reporting H5N1 Outbreaks
#18,822 Two days ago, in The UK's Summer HPAI H5 Surge In Poultry , we looked at an unexpected rise in H5N1 poultry outbreaks ( n=4 ) over ...
afludiary.blogspot.com
August 2, 2025 at 10:01 AM
AFD Blog `Ireland & Scotland Now Reporting #H5N1 Outbreaks' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/08/irel...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
#USDA reports another #H5N1 #birdflu infected dairy herd in California, the 771st such detection in the state.
The cumulative national total of detected/confirmed herds is 1,078 in 17 states. The true number of infected herds? Who knows?
www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po...
The cumulative national total of detected/confirmed herds is 1,078 in 17 states. The true number of infected herds? Who knows?
www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po...
August 4, 2025 at 12:35 PM
#USDA reports another #H5N1 #birdflu infected dairy herd in California, the 771st such detection in the state.
The cumulative national total of detected/confirmed herds is 1,078 in 17 states. The true number of infected herds? Who knows?
www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po...
The cumulative national total of detected/confirmed herds is 1,078 in 17 states. The true number of infected herds? Who knows?
www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `PNAS: Three things we can do now to reduce the risk of avian influenza spillovers' #H5N1 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/08/pnas...
PNAS: Three things we can do now to reduce the risk of avian influenza spillovers
#18,824 Perhaps the most unsettling thing about the rapid spread of HPAI H5 in the United States - and around the world - is how little i...
afludiary.blogspot.com
August 4, 2025 at 1:07 PM
AFD Blog `PNAS: Three things we can do now to reduce the risk of avian influenza spillovers' #H5N1 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/08/pnas...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
One of the many great tragedies of all of this is that if H5N1 mutates to achieve effective human to human transmission, and maintains a CFR similar to that seen in the D1.1 genotype, the fallacy that fit people don't get sick will collapse in the most shattering way imaginable.
June 10, 2025 at 11:00 PM
One of the many great tragedies of all of this is that if H5N1 mutates to achieve effective human to human transmission, and maintains a CFR similar to that seen in the D1.1 genotype, the fallacy that fit people don't get sick will collapse in the most shattering way imaginable.
Someone liked this post, I refloated it, and now a conversation has started that really makes a difference. For a long time I've felt SCIM was a knife without a handle. It kinda works but maybe it's unusable as it is. Needs integration. Maybe?
If the analogy of a building on fire is any use, that ~1% of people who keep their cool and help others to navigate the crisis - what do they need? Probably 1) emotional management, 2) knowledge specific to the situation, 3) ways to communicate to solve stuff, 4) ways to communicate to guide others.
August 4, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Someone liked this post, I refloated it, and now a conversation has started that really makes a difference. For a long time I've felt SCIM was a knife without a handle. It kinda works but maybe it's unusable as it is. Needs integration. Maybe?
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
If the analogy of a building on fire is any use, that ~1% of people who keep their cool and help others to navigate the crisis - what do they need? Probably 1) emotional management, 2) knowledge specific to the situation, 3) ways to communicate to solve stuff, 4) ways to communicate to guide others.
June 11, 2025 at 3:53 AM
If the analogy of a building on fire is any use, that ~1% of people who keep their cool and help others to navigate the crisis - what do they need? Probably 1) emotional management, 2) knowledge specific to the situation, 3) ways to communicate to solve stuff, 4) ways to communicate to guide others.
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
A hundred articles will tell you to stop looking at your phone, but I've found a few other reasons why we're struggling with sleep.
We Forgot How to Sleep
It's not just our phones.
splattered.substack.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:17 AM
A hundred articles will tell you to stop looking at your phone, but I've found a few other reasons why we're struggling with sleep.
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `Emerg Microbes Infect: A fatal Case of Acute Encephalitis Associated with a #Novel influenza #H3N2 Recombinant Virus Possessing Human-origin #H7N9 Internal Genes' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/emer...
Emerg Microbes Infect: A fatal Case of Acute Encephalitis Associated with a Novel influenza H3N2 Recombinant Virus Possessing Human-origin H7N9 Internal Genes
#18,800 We've a remarkable study out of China this week which reads like a virologist's fever dream; it describes an aggressive , fatal , ...
afludiary.blogspot.com
July 19, 2025 at 12:48 PM
AFD Blog `Emerg Microbes Infect: A fatal Case of Acute Encephalitis Associated with a #Novel influenza #H3N2 Recombinant Virus Possessing Human-origin #H7N9 Internal Genes' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/emer...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD Blog `WHO: Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface Summary and Assessment, 1 July 2025' #H5N1 #H9N2 #H10N3 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/who-...
WHO: Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface Summary and Assessment, 1 July 2025
#18,794 Overnight the WHO published their June 2025 update on novel influenza (covers May 28th-July 1st ), which adds 10 human H5N1 cases...
afludiary.blogspot.com
July 15, 2025 at 10:29 AM
AFD Blog `WHO: Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface Summary and Assessment, 1 July 2025' #H5N1 #H9N2 #H10N3 afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/who-...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
AFD blog `Where Have All The Planners Gone?' #H5N1 #Pandemic #Preparedness afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/wher...
Where Have All The Planners Gone?
Credit WHO #18,792 While we are thankfully now in an interpandemic period there are plenty of obvious ( and not so obvious) zoonotic t...
afludiary.blogspot.com
July 13, 2025 at 2:27 PM
AFD blog `Where Have All The Planners Gone?' #H5N1 #Pandemic #Preparedness afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/07/wher...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
Maybe nobody, of course. But maybe it's a number of us in the different corners of the world. And, IF (big if) that's the case, maybe we should try and find each other, maybe taking your question as one of the grains of sand around which molecules... etc.
So maybe it's How are We going to Do This?
So maybe it's How are We going to Do This?
July 15, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Maybe nobody, of course. But maybe it's a number of us in the different corners of the world. And, IF (big if) that's the case, maybe we should try and find each other, maybe taking your question as one of the grains of sand around which molecules... etc.
So maybe it's How are We going to Do This?
So maybe it's How are We going to Do This?
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
Maybe it's not the same but it kind of rhymes... apparently a number of countries are gathering around making things happen that the UN is not very good at. Almost like an evolutionary fork in software, where the same intentions are carried out by a different entity. Who is going to do the planning?
July 15, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Maybe it's not the same but it kind of rhymes... apparently a number of countries are gathering around making things happen that the UN is not very good at. Almost like an evolutionary fork in software, where the same intentions are carried out by a different entity. Who is going to do the planning?
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
Extremely important article on reassortment, H5N1, and pandemic potential. As I've said before, if the situation in the US regarding bird flu had happened in 2019, it would be treated like the grave emergency it is.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...
Gene-Swaps Could Let Influenza Jump Species
Influenza viruses like bird flu can mix and match their genomes, and this has played a role in at least three of the last four flu pandemics
www.scientificamerican.com
July 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Extremely important article on reassortment, H5N1, and pandemic potential. As I've said before, if the situation in the US regarding bird flu had happened in 2019, it would be treated like the grave emergency it is.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...
Reposted by Lucas Gonzalez
Here is a summary of SCIM, and the page in resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf where I played with the idea of a training module to bring the willing up to speed, just in case that helps as one more way to facilitate sensible & creative collaboration in a long disruptive crisis.
June 11, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Here is a summary of SCIM, and the page in resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf where I played with the idea of a training module to bring the willing up to speed, just in case that helps as one more way to facilitate sensible & creative collaboration in a long disruptive crisis.