Global Macro Playbook
@macropb.bsky.social
Trying to make sense of market narratives. Headlines and quick thoughts.
Newsletter: macro.hedder.com
Newsletter: macro.hedder.com
Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says China's failure "opens up all manner of action."
Translation: More unpredictable, potentially damaging unilateral moves are likely coming.
Strap in. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the economy.
Translation: More unpredictable, potentially damaging unilateral moves are likely coming.
Strap in. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the economy.
Trump says China ‘violated’ Geneva deal with US on tariffs, minerals
US President Donald Trump suggested China was in a ‘very bad situation’ until he agreed to cut them a deal on tariffs.
www.aljazeera.com
June 1, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says China's failure "opens up all manner of action."
Translation: More unpredictable, potentially damaging unilateral moves are likely coming.
Strap in. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the economy.
Translation: More unpredictable, potentially damaging unilateral moves are likely coming.
Strap in. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the economy.
Cleveland-Cliffs shares surge on the 50% tariff news. Short-term market reaction is understandable, but the long-term economic reality of these kinds of massive tariffs on input goods is far less positive for the broader economy.
Trump says he plans to double steel tariffs to 50%
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he planned to increase tariffs on foreign imports of steel from 25% to 50%, ratcheting up pressure on global steel producers and vowing to deepen his trade war.
www.reuters.com
June 1, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Cleveland-Cliffs shares surge on the 50% tariff news. Short-term market reaction is understandable, but the long-term economic reality of these kinds of massive tariffs on input goods is far less positive for the broader economy.
Danielle DiMartino Booth: a recession is very likely due to consistent private sector job losses and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate. Should listen to working Americans, 65% of whom expect unemployment to climb, as they already feel the economy is in recession
May 30, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Danielle DiMartino Booth: a recession is very likely due to consistent private sector job losses and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate. Should listen to working Americans, 65% of whom expect unemployment to climb, as they already feel the economy is in recession
Structured Finance Association CEO Michael Bright on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector: The push for profit could undermine mortgage market safety, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. We need guardrails to ensure they focus on their core mission.
May 30, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Structured Finance Association CEO Michael Bright on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector: The push for profit could undermine mortgage market safety, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. We need guardrails to ensure they focus on their core mission.
KKR's Mattia Caprioli: a lot of volatility, but many positive signs in Europe for private markets. Germany's €500B fiscal shift for infrastructure is a significant contribution to GDP and a "renaissance" for the continent. Private capital plays a key role in boosting competitiveness.
May 30, 2025 at 7:04 AM
KKR's Mattia Caprioli: a lot of volatility, but many positive signs in Europe for private markets. Germany's €500B fiscal shift for infrastructure is a significant contribution to GDP and a "renaissance" for the continent. Private capital plays a key role in boosting competitiveness.
Michael Schumacher (Wells Fargo) on Fed's hold: The Fed is likely to remain on hold due to concerns over tariffs and spending. Inflation may persist longer than expected. No reason for the Fed to move soon, meaning Treasury bond buyers shouldn't expect big rate cuts for capital gains.
May 30, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Michael Schumacher (Wells Fargo) on Fed's hold: The Fed is likely to remain on hold due to concerns over tariffs and spending. Inflation may persist longer than expected. No reason for the Fed to move soon, meaning Treasury bond buyers shouldn't expect big rate cuts for capital gains.
Japan's Finance Ministry is pushing China to ease capital controls, asking Beijing to raise QDII quotas. The aim is to attract Chinese investors' appetite for Japanese securities, leveraging China's piled-up funds amid a slumping property sector & stagnating economy.
May 14, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Japan's Finance Ministry is pushing China to ease capital controls, asking Beijing to raise QDII quotas. The aim is to attract Chinese investors' appetite for Japanese securities, leveraging China's piled-up funds amid a slumping property sector & stagnating economy.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink observes trillions of dollars in idle cash globally amid uncertainty. He points to €12T in European bank accounts & $11T in US money funds, stating, "When there is uncertainty, you are going to keep more and more money in cash."
May 14, 2025 at 6:29 AM
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink observes trillions of dollars in idle cash globally amid uncertainty. He points to €12T in European bank accounts & $11T in US money funds, stating, "When there is uncertainty, you are going to keep more and more money in cash."
US annual inflation slowed to 2.3% in April (vs 2.4% Mar), but core inflation rose to 2.8% (vs 2.4% Mar). Economists note tariff impact hasn't fully shown & expect price increases later. Consumers show anxiety, with inflation expectations rising to 6.5%.
May 14, 2025 at 5:59 AM
US annual inflation slowed to 2.3% in April (vs 2.4% Mar), but core inflation rose to 2.8% (vs 2.4% Mar). Economists note tariff impact hasn't fully shown & expect price increases later. Consumers show anxiety, with inflation expectations rising to 6.5%.
China and the US have agreed to remove most tariffs imposed since April 2. This breakthrough lowers US additional duties on Chinese goods to 30% & Chinese duties on US imports to 10%. US Treasury Sec Scott Bessent: "We have substantially moved down the tariff levels."
May 14, 2025 at 4:57 AM
China and the US have agreed to remove most tariffs imposed since April 2. This breakthrough lowers US additional duties on Chinese goods to 30% & Chinese duties on US imports to 10%. US Treasury Sec Scott Bessent: "We have substantially moved down the tariff levels."
China's factory-gate prices fell 2.7% in April, the steepest drop in six months, while consumer prices fell for a third straight month (-0.1%). This deepening deflation underlines the need for more stimulus as the economy faces pressure from trade barriers.
May 12, 2025 at 4:52 PM
China's factory-gate prices fell 2.7% in April, the steepest drop in six months, while consumer prices fell for a third straight month (-0.1%). This deepening deflation underlines the need for more stimulus as the economy faces pressure from trade barriers.
US and China agree to 90-day tariff relief, slashing duties significantly (US 145% to 30%, China 125% to 10%). Market reaction is swift: S&P futures +2.7%, Nasdaq +3.8%, dollar +0.9%, gold -3%, oil +3%. Analysts see it as "substantial relief".
May 12, 2025 at 4:22 PM
US and China agree to 90-day tariff relief, slashing duties significantly (US 145% to 30%, China 125% to 10%). Market reaction is swift: S&P futures +2.7%, Nasdaq +3.8%, dollar +0.9%, gold -3%, oil +3%. Analysts see it as "substantial relief".
As part of efforts to support China's property market, banks have approved ~6.7 trillion yuan (~$926 billion) in loans for "whitelist" housing projects. This covers nearly 16 million units and aims to ensure timely project completion, boosting confidence in the sector.
May 12, 2025 at 2:18 PM
As part of efforts to support China's property market, banks have approved ~6.7 trillion yuan (~$926 billion) in loans for "whitelist" housing projects. This covers nearly 16 million units and aims to ensure timely project completion, boosting confidence in the sector.
Norway's wealth fund has sold all its fixed income holdings in Mexico's Pemex, citing an unacceptable risk of corruption.
May 12, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Norway's wealth fund has sold all its fixed income holdings in Mexico's Pemex, citing an unacceptable risk of corruption.
China stocks rebounded today, driven by Beijing's vows of further support for the economy. The CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indices both rose 0.2% by midday. A hedge fund manager suggests China's bear market is entering its final stage, with "downward momentum... nearly exhausted."
May 12, 2025 at 1:18 PM
China stocks rebounded today, driven by Beijing's vows of further support for the economy. The CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indices both rose 0.2% by midday. A hedge fund manager suggests China's bear market is entering its final stage, with "downward momentum... nearly exhausted."
Experts question the feasibility of Gulf states' massive US investment pledges amid falling oil prices. Analysts call pledges "unrealistically huge," especially for Saudi Arabia which needs ~$91 oil to balance its budget (current price ~$65).
May 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Experts question the feasibility of Gulf states' massive US investment pledges amid falling oil prices. Analysts call pledges "unrealistically huge," especially for Saudi Arabia which needs ~$91 oil to balance its budget (current price ~$65).
OPEC+ will boost oil output by 411k bpd in June (part of 960k total since April). Brent crude initially fell below $60/barrel following the news, now trading around $63. This offers potential price relief for import-reliant Asia, though US-China trade doubts linger.
May 12, 2025 at 12:32 PM
OPEC+ will boost oil output by 411k bpd in June (part of 960k total since April). Brent crude initially fell below $60/barrel following the news, now trading around $63. This offers potential price relief for import-reliant Asia, though US-China trade doubts linger.
Saudi Aramco's total Q1 2025 dividend fell to $21.36 billion ($31B last year), primarily due to a sharp cut in the performance-linked payout. This reduction lowers revenue for the Saudi gov't. GS estimates the gov't deficit could rise significantly if oil prices stay around $62/barrel.
May 12, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Saudi Aramco's total Q1 2025 dividend fell to $21.36 billion ($31B last year), primarily due to a sharp cut in the performance-linked payout. This reduction lowers revenue for the Saudi gov't. GS estimates the gov't deficit could rise significantly if oil prices stay around $62/barrel.
Saudi oil giant Aramco reported a 4.6% yoy drop in Q1 profit to $26.01 billion. The company cited lower sales and higher op costs as economic uncertainty impacted crude markets. This figure beat a company-provided analyst estimate of $25.36 billion.
May 12, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Saudi oil giant Aramco reported a 4.6% yoy drop in Q1 profit to $26.01 billion. The company cited lower sales and higher op costs as economic uncertainty impacted crude markets. This figure beat a company-provided analyst estimate of $25.36 billion.
Tariffs are causing Corporate America to pull back earnings guidance for the rest of the year, including GM, Heinz, and Snap, due to the trade war's uncertainty and impact on their bottom lines.
May 9, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Tariffs are causing Corporate America to pull back earnings guidance for the rest of the year, including GM, Heinz, and Snap, due to the trade war's uncertainty and impact on their bottom lines.
Singapore Ambassador on Trump's trade war: While Trump promised disruption and delivered, everyone is still shocked by the speed and the scope of his policy changes.
May 9, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Singapore Ambassador on Trump's trade war: While Trump promised disruption and delivered, everyone is still shocked by the speed and the scope of his policy changes.
Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs) on Fed action trigger: the Fed would only be compelled to cut rates if the economy slowed so significantly that the unemployment rate began to either move up or spike up. This hasn't happened yet.
May 9, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs) on Fed action trigger: the Fed would only be compelled to cut rates if the economy slowed so significantly that the unemployment rate began to either move up or spike up. This hasn't happened yet.
Nouriel Roubini on trade war: market discipline, specifically the "bond vigilantes", will force Trump to back down. Even with de-escalation, trade deals should feature 10-15% tariffs for most countries and 60% on China, as Trump announced in the campaign. Shallow recession is highly likely.
May 9, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Nouriel Roubini on trade war: market discipline, specifically the "bond vigilantes", will force Trump to back down. Even with de-escalation, trade deals should feature 10-15% tariffs for most countries and 60% on China, as Trump announced in the campaign. Shallow recession is highly likely.
Nouriel Roubini on tech vs tariffs: tech "trumps tariffs" and "trumps Trump." US leadership in future technologies implies that tariffs' impact doesn't matter over the medium term. Whatever Trump currently does "doesn't matter."
May 9, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Nouriel Roubini on tech vs tariffs: tech "trumps tariffs" and "trumps Trump." US leadership in future technologies implies that tariffs' impact doesn't matter over the medium term. Whatever Trump currently does "doesn't matter."
Commerce Sec Lutnick on tariff baseline: the 10% tariff rate is the low rate intended for countries like the UK that have a balanced trade with the US. Other countries should expect a higher rate.
May 9, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Commerce Sec Lutnick on tariff baseline: the 10% tariff rate is the low rate intended for countries like the UK that have a balanced trade with the US. Other countries should expect a higher rate.