Global Macro Playbook
@macropb.bsky.social
Trying to make sense of market narratives. Headlines and quick thoughts.
Newsletter: macro.hedder.com
Newsletter: macro.hedder.com
Danielle DiMartino Booth: a recession is very likely due to consistent private sector job losses and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate. Should listen to working Americans, 65% of whom expect unemployment to climb, as they already feel the economy is in recession
May 30, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Danielle DiMartino Booth: a recession is very likely due to consistent private sector job losses and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate. Should listen to working Americans, 65% of whom expect unemployment to climb, as they already feel the economy is in recession
Structured Finance Association CEO Michael Bright on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector: The push for profit could undermine mortgage market safety, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. We need guardrails to ensure they focus on their core mission.
May 30, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Structured Finance Association CEO Michael Bright on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector: The push for profit could undermine mortgage market safety, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. We need guardrails to ensure they focus on their core mission.
KKR's Mattia Caprioli: a lot of volatility, but many positive signs in Europe for private markets. Germany's €500B fiscal shift for infrastructure is a significant contribution to GDP and a "renaissance" for the continent. Private capital plays a key role in boosting competitiveness.
May 30, 2025 at 7:04 AM
KKR's Mattia Caprioli: a lot of volatility, but many positive signs in Europe for private markets. Germany's €500B fiscal shift for infrastructure is a significant contribution to GDP and a "renaissance" for the continent. Private capital plays a key role in boosting competitiveness.
Michael Schumacher (Wells Fargo) on Fed's hold: The Fed is likely to remain on hold due to concerns over tariffs and spending. Inflation may persist longer than expected. No reason for the Fed to move soon, meaning Treasury bond buyers shouldn't expect big rate cuts for capital gains.
May 30, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Michael Schumacher (Wells Fargo) on Fed's hold: The Fed is likely to remain on hold due to concerns over tariffs and spending. Inflation may persist longer than expected. No reason for the Fed to move soon, meaning Treasury bond buyers shouldn't expect big rate cuts for capital gains.
Tariffs are causing Corporate America to pull back earnings guidance for the rest of the year, including GM, Heinz, and Snap, due to the trade war's uncertainty and impact on their bottom lines.
May 9, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Tariffs are causing Corporate America to pull back earnings guidance for the rest of the year, including GM, Heinz, and Snap, due to the trade war's uncertainty and impact on their bottom lines.
Singapore Ambassador on Trump's trade war: While Trump promised disruption and delivered, everyone is still shocked by the speed and the scope of his policy changes.
May 9, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Singapore Ambassador on Trump's trade war: While Trump promised disruption and delivered, everyone is still shocked by the speed and the scope of his policy changes.
Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs) on Fed action trigger: the Fed would only be compelled to cut rates if the economy slowed so significantly that the unemployment rate began to either move up or spike up. This hasn't happened yet.
May 9, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs) on Fed action trigger: the Fed would only be compelled to cut rates if the economy slowed so significantly that the unemployment rate began to either move up or spike up. This hasn't happened yet.
Nouriel Roubini on trade war: market discipline, specifically the "bond vigilantes", will force Trump to back down. Even with de-escalation, trade deals should feature 10-15% tariffs for most countries and 60% on China, as Trump announced in the campaign. Shallow recession is highly likely.
May 9, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Nouriel Roubini on trade war: market discipline, specifically the "bond vigilantes", will force Trump to back down. Even with de-escalation, trade deals should feature 10-15% tariffs for most countries and 60% on China, as Trump announced in the campaign. Shallow recession is highly likely.
Nouriel Roubini on tech vs tariffs: tech "trumps tariffs" and "trumps Trump." US leadership in future technologies implies that tariffs' impact doesn't matter over the medium term. Whatever Trump currently does "doesn't matter."
May 9, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Nouriel Roubini on tech vs tariffs: tech "trumps tariffs" and "trumps Trump." US leadership in future technologies implies that tariffs' impact doesn't matter over the medium term. Whatever Trump currently does "doesn't matter."
Commerce Sec Lutnick on tariff baseline: the 10% tariff rate is the low rate intended for countries like the UK that have a balanced trade with the US. Other countries should expect a higher rate.
May 9, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Commerce Sec Lutnick on tariff baseline: the 10% tariff rate is the low rate intended for countries like the UK that have a balanced trade with the US. Other countries should expect a higher rate.
Maersk CEO on trade war: company is seeing US-China shipping volume down 30-40%. There is no easy substitution for a lot of these products outside China/US. This could increase chance of inflation in the US.
May 8, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Maersk CEO on trade war: company is seeing US-China shipping volume down 30-40%. There is no easy substitution for a lot of these products outside China/US. This could increase chance of inflation in the US.
Peter Orszag on Fed decision: don't expect any Fed rate cuts in 2025. Any cuts would be "bad news", signaling concern about the economy rather than confidence in inflation falling. The Fed is in a "tough spot"
May 8, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Peter Orszag on Fed decision: don't expect any Fed rate cuts in 2025. Any cuts would be "bad news", signaling concern about the economy rather than confidence in inflation falling. The Fed is in a "tough spot"
Lazard CEO Peter Orszag on China Tariffs: average tariff rate on China will settle between 30-50%, either via a future deal or through exemptions. Wildly varying rates create very strong incentives for transshipment, the monitoring of which is very difficult.
May 8, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Lazard CEO Peter Orszag on China Tariffs: average tariff rate on China will settle between 30-50%, either via a future deal or through exemptions. Wildly varying rates create very strong incentives for transshipment, the monitoring of which is very difficult.
Ken Rogoff on global pushback on US dollar: other countries dislike the US political control gained through dollar dominance. It is not just China and Russia, Europeans hate it too.
May 8, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Ken Rogoff on global pushback on US dollar: other countries dislike the US political control gained through dollar dominance. It is not just China and Russia, Europeans hate it too.
Joe Kernen: Is this an orchestrated decline for the US dollar?
Ken Rogoff: The decline in USD's global footprint has been in play for more than a decade. We are at the beginning of USD coming down from its dominant position. The transition period will take a long time.
Ken Rogoff: The decline in USD's global footprint has been in play for more than a decade. We are at the beginning of USD coming down from its dominant position. The transition period will take a long time.
May 8, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Joe Kernen: Is this an orchestrated decline for the US dollar?
Ken Rogoff: The decline in USD's global footprint has been in play for more than a decade. We are at the beginning of USD coming down from its dominant position. The transition period will take a long time.
Ken Rogoff: The decline in USD's global footprint has been in play for more than a decade. We are at the beginning of USD coming down from its dominant position. The transition period will take a long time.
PIMCO on US dollar: it will remain the reserve currency and safe haven, backed by the world's most liquid treasury market. Despite potential overvaluation, it won't lose status as there's no alternative for "moving trillions".
May 8, 2025 at 7:51 AM
PIMCO on US dollar: it will remain the reserve currency and safe haven, backed by the world's most liquid treasury market. Despite potential overvaluation, it won't lose status as there's no alternative for "moving trillions".
PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman notes it's hard to assess the exact impact of tariffs without knowing the "end game." They use scenario analysis, but the "overwhelming likelihood" is high tariffs will continue for the foreseeable future.
May 8, 2025 at 7:46 AM
PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman notes it's hard to assess the exact impact of tariffs without knowing the "end game." They use scenario analysis, but the "overwhelming likelihood" is high tariffs will continue for the foreseeable future.
Blackstone CEO on US trade war: Sees "contours of a deal" emerging for most countries with potential tariffs around 10%, offset by reduced non-tariff barriers. Expects deals soon with countries like UK, India, Japan, or Korea, providing needed certainty for investors
May 8, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Blackstone CEO on US trade war: Sees "contours of a deal" emerging for most countries with potential tariffs around 10%, offset by reduced non-tariff barriers. Expects deals soon with countries like UK, India, Japan, or Korea, providing needed certainty for investors
Fed Chair Powell warns Trump's tariffs are "highly likely" to raise inflation (at least temporarily) and move the US away from its employment/inflation goals. A direct challenge to the policy's economic rationale from the central bank chief.
(source: Bloomberg)
(source: Bloomberg)
April 17, 2025 at 4:14 AM
Fed Chair Powell warns Trump's tariffs are "highly likely" to raise inflation (at least temporarily) and move the US away from its employment/inflation goals. A direct challenge to the policy's economic rationale from the central bank chief.
(source: Bloomberg)
(source: Bloomberg)
Mohamed A. El-Erian: 1. Enjoy the market calm, but don't get used to it. Fundamental issues remain unresolved - the US-China & Trump-Fed "games of chicken" continue. Expect volatility ahead. 2. Last week's Treasury market stress (illiquidity, odd correlations) neared market malfunction.
April 16, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Mohamed A. El-Erian: 1. Enjoy the market calm, but don't get used to it. Fundamental issues remain unresolved - the US-China & Trump-Fed "games of chicken" continue. Expect volatility ahead. 2. Last week's Treasury market stress (illiquidity, odd correlations) neared market malfunction.
Ray Dalio on odds of a recession: "I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. Such times are very much like the 1930s."
April 14, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Ray Dalio on odds of a recession: "I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. Such times are very much like the 1930s."
Larry Summers on steel tariffs: "There are 50 times more people who work in industries that use steel than there are who work in the steel industry. When we stop imports, we make all the inputs to our export industries more expensive and make our export industries less competitive."
April 14, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Larry Summers on steel tariffs: "There are 50 times more people who work in industries that use steel than there are who work in the steel industry. When we stop imports, we make all the inputs to our export industries more expensive and make our export industries less competitive."
ZAKARIA: 80% of Americans work in services, 8% work in manufacturing. Aren't [tariffs] taxing most of the middle class to subsidize this very small part of the middle class?
MAGA: There's nobody who cares about manufacturing employment as a share of total employment.
MAGA: There's nobody who cares about manufacturing employment as a share of total employment.
April 14, 2025 at 3:03 AM
ZAKARIA: 80% of Americans work in services, 8% work in manufacturing. Aren't [tariffs] taxing most of the middle class to subsidize this very small part of the middle class?
MAGA: There's nobody who cares about manufacturing employment as a share of total employment.
MAGA: There's nobody who cares about manufacturing employment as a share of total employment.
Carlyle's Jeff Currie: US oil is squarely in the tariff "crosshairs." While the US is the world's largest oil producer/exporter ($350bn), its exports are fungible - China (largest importer) can buy elsewhere (OPEC, Brazil). This makes US shale highly vulnerable. (1/3)
April 11, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Carlyle's Jeff Currie: US oil is squarely in the tariff "crosshairs." While the US is the world's largest oil producer/exporter ($350bn), its exports are fungible - China (largest importer) can buy elsewhere (OPEC, Brazil). This makes US shale highly vulnerable. (1/3)