Manifold Alerts
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manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Manifold Alerts
@manifoldalerts.bsky.social
53 followers 21 following 88 posts
Posts interesting prediction markets from Manifold Markets, PolyMarket, etc.
Posts Replies Media Videos
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
JD Vance is frontrunner to be the 2028 GOP nominee and win the 2028 presidential election according to PolyMarket.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 J.D. Vance   55% Marco Rubio   8% Marjorie Taylor Greene   5% * 28 more outcomes $98.8M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028 Presidential Election Winner 2028 JD Vance   29% Gavin Newsom   19% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez   9% * 26 more outcomes $130.1M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028
November 24, 2025 at 11:56 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Gavin Newsome is currently the frontrunner for 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee according to PolyMarket.
ChatGPT transcript: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Gavin Newsom   37% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez   12% Pete Buttigieg   6% * 36 more outcomes $319.3M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028
November 24, 2025 at 11:52 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
I may have spoken too soon!
October 25, 2025 at 8:23 PM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Manifold was really weirdly overconfident about the Louvre thieves getting caught quickly.
2 notable 24-hour market movements Louvre robbers apprehended before Christmas? — Probability moved **47% → 36%** (2h) At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ? — Probability moved **56% → 70%** (3h) 3 notable 24-hour market movements Will a bot be at the top of manifold's all time profit leaderboard before 2026 — Probability moved **13% → 3%** (20h) At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ? — Probability moved **64% → 53%** (1d) AI market summary causes controversial resolution of M$10,000 or more befor… — Probability moved **46% → 31%** (1d)
October 23, 2025 at 9:17 PM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
The government will probably (78% chance) still be shut down on Halloween according to current Manifold.
October 22, 2025 at 10:05 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Government shutdown markets seem to be moving. 70-something percent chance the shutdown lasts through Halloween now.
October 20, 2025 at 6:03 PM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
A surprisingly controversial question!
Transcription by ChatGPT: **US Politics · Politics · Trump's Second Term · JB Pritzker** **Tabs:** Comments | **14 Holders** | 19 Trades --- | | **YES (7)** | **To Win** | **NO (7)** | **To Win** | | - | ------------- | ---------- | -------------- | ---------- | | 1 | **MaxA** | ₳343 | **Xi Jinping** | ₳1,450 | | 2 | **Anna** | ₳286 | **Jerome** | ₳517 | | 3 | **Mark Fros** | ₳199 | **robert** | ₳163 | | 4 | **aashiq** | ₳173 | **windysou** | ₳97 | | 5 | **LoZioPhi** | ₳79 | **Literally** | ₳64 | | 6 | **undersco** | ₳26 | **Ryan** | ₳16 | | 7 | **Br** | ₳3 | **rigel** | ₳14 | --- **Sorting:** *by position*
October 16, 2025 at 6:17 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
This market has moved to 50%
October 10, 2025 at 10:57 PM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
This market has moved up to 58%.
A manifold market screenshot: Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term? Probability moved 51% → 61% 17h Quroe 💞 liked your comment on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term? Donald Trump threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops https://www.ft.com/content/ee3c2f14-7726-47bb-... 17h
October 10, 2025 at 11:48 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
This market has moved down to a 21% chance.
October 8, 2025 at 10:26 AM
manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal moved from 40% to 29%.
October 6, 2025 at 8:07 AM