So will the Iranian regime collapse? The CIA doesn't know, the Mossad doesn't know. It's impossible to predict with any certainty because it ultimately depends on very few people (those generals etc) and we can't see inside their heads. And even if we could, they can change their mind

If you want to kill protestors in Tehran, don't send soldiers from Tehran to do it. Get someone from Mashdad or Isfahan or Baghdad. You see this again and again in dictatorships, whether it's Beijing or Leipzig. Locals are the last line of defence because they're least likely to follow orders

Tactics matter, too. The Iranian regime is now reportedly asking Iraqi militia to help put down protests. This might be seen as a sign of weakness, but there's one big advantage: The more removed the men with guns are from the people they're supposed to shoot, the more likely they are to fire

Why? If a general thinks about switching sides, he needs to think that he would have to go through that militia or the revolutionary guard to get to the palace to unseat you. And if he does think that, defection becomes drastically less likely

Structure matters, too. Dictatorships create multiple layers of security services with overlapping responsibilities. You can't just have a regular military! You need a popular militia, a revolutionary guard and perhaps some mercenaries. Same with intelligence services. Turn 1 into 3.

This is part of the reason why foreign intervention can make such a massive difference. If you're that soldier and you turn around to see 1,000 Russian paratroopers, you must assume that the regime is much more likely to survive. As a result, you're more likely to fire at protestors etc

You saw this in Syria. When Assad's soldiers came to believe that he could actually fall, some of them literally threw their uniforms to the side of the road and went home. By and large, these systems are not built on genuine loyalty. If people believe the dictatorship will collapse, it does

When that soldier or that general is faced with the choice to shoot or refuse your orders, the dictatorship desperately needs him to believe that the regime will survive. Because who would want to massacre students or pensioners or shopkeepers for the losing side? Nobody

The regime knows that the chance of defection is high because few soldiers or policemen want to open fire on innocent civilians, so the entire apparatus is essentially built for this moment. There are multiple ways to do this, but the key is always to create an impression of inevitability

For protests to succeed, protestors need to push the regime until it fractures under the weight of its own repression. Policemen refuse to open fire, a minister flees into exile and publicly denounces the dictatorship, a general switches sides and marches on the dictatorial palace

If you're in charge of the Iranian dictatorship, the great difficulty lies in maintaining that violence. Because if you give an order to shoot and that order isn't followed through, a bad situation turns into apocalypse. To survive, the dictatorship must keep the security services on its side

It's incredibly depressing, but dictatorships don't need to win hearts and minds to survive in power. If a regime can use brutal violence for an extended period of time, it can survive for years or even decades despite being hated

Anyway if you're interested in international politics you should subscribe to my new podcast. Today's episode is about America's economic warfare. Watch on YouTube below or search for "The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus" on Spotify & Apple 🙏

youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY

@gelliottmorris.com

Just search for "The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus" on your preferred platform. And then, for good luck and a wonderful year, hit subscribe 🙏

Not to brag or anything but as you can see in the first 10 seconds of the video, I've figured out how to make things appear on screen. Singapore! Malaysia! Books! But if you're like me and you prefer listening to podcasts rather than watching them, you can also find the podcast on Spotify and Apple