Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus.com
Political scientist and author of How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive. Writing The Hundred, a politics newsletter. www.marceldirsus.com
Pinned
Interview: What Putin Wants
#91: With Hanna Notte
thehundred.substack.com
Since you're here anyway, you should subscribe to my (free) newsletter. I ask experts about rare earths or Putin or Greenland and then they tell me things. It's not quite as amazing as the chart but hopefully a bit more informative
thehundred.substack.com/p/interview-...
thehundred.substack.com/p/interview-...
More than 3 years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and we still can't agree to use Russia's frozen assets to buy weapons for Kyiv
November 24, 2025 at 1:10 PM
More than 3 years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and we still can't agree to use Russia's frozen assets to buy weapons for Kyiv
25. September 2001: Vladimir Putin gives a speech (in German) in Germany's Bundestag. His speech is followed by minutes of applause
November 24, 2025 at 11:08 AM
25. September 2001: Vladimir Putin gives a speech (in German) in Germany's Bundestag. His speech is followed by minutes of applause
Politics is about power. Us Europeans can complain about being ignored until it's time to pay, but we did this to ourselves. If we want to be taken seriously, we need to be able to build & use tanks, rockets and drones. I wish the world worked differently but it doesn't
November 24, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Politics is about power. Us Europeans can complain about being ignored until it's time to pay, but we did this to ourselves. If we want to be taken seriously, we need to be able to build & use tanks, rockets and drones. I wish the world worked differently but it doesn't
"The German government announced on Monday that it was ending the partial suspension of weapons deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza."
www.dw.com/en/germany-t...
www.dw.com/en/germany-t...
Germany to lift partial weapons embargo on Israel – DW – 11/17/2025
As the shaky ceasefire in Gaza continues, Germany is planning to lift its partial suspension of weapons exports to Israel.
www.dw.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM
"The German government announced on Monday that it was ending the partial suspension of weapons deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza."
www.dw.com/en/germany-t...
www.dw.com/en/germany-t...
If you're wondering why Germany works the way it does, here's a big part of the answer. Young people have little influence, acting against the interests of older voters is political suicide
November 17, 2025 at 10:18 AM
If you're wondering why Germany works the way it does, here's a big part of the answer. Young people have little influence, acting against the interests of older voters is political suicide
After 8 million think tank papers and about as many speeches about the importance of European strategic autonomy, the French and the Germans can't agree to build a plane together
Source: FT
Source: FT
November 17, 2025 at 9:34 AM
After 8 million think tank papers and about as many speeches about the importance of European strategic autonomy, the French and the Germans can't agree to build a plane together
Source: FT
Source: FT
A little update on European strategic autonomy:
»Another person close to the project said Dassault “simply doesn’t want to engage in a real partnership”. (...) “The feeling is ‘we have funds like we’ve never had before on defence’ so if we need to do it without the French let’s just do it,” said a person with knowledge of the thinking in Berlin.«
Berlin and Paris discuss scrapping joint fighter to focus on air ‘combat cloud’
Proposed downsizing of €100bn flagship defence project follows feuding by Airbus and Dassault
www.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM
A little update on European strategic autonomy:
Keir Starmer is extremely unpopular
November 17, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Keir Starmer is extremely unpopular
Eligible German voters by age (in %), 2025
November 17, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Eligible German voters by age (in %), 2025
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
Selim is one of my favorite Turkey-wonks... and *always* has some idea or comparison that I hadn't thought of before. This short interview is no exception.
This week in the newsletter, I speak to @selimkoru.bsky.social to make sense of Turkey's foreign policy. It's complicated! And interesting
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
Making Sense of Turkish Foreign Policy
#100: With Selim Koru
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Selim is one of my favorite Turkey-wonks... and *always* has some idea or comparison that I hadn't thought of before. This short interview is no exception.
Why has Erdogan supported Hamas?
"It would be very strange if he didn’t support Hamas."
thehundred.substack.com/p/making-sen...
"It would be very strange if he didn’t support Hamas."
thehundred.substack.com/p/making-sen...
November 12, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Why has Erdogan supported Hamas?
"It would be very strange if he didn’t support Hamas."
thehundred.substack.com/p/making-sen...
"It would be very strange if he didn’t support Hamas."
thehundred.substack.com/p/making-sen...
This week in the newsletter, I speak to @selimkoru.bsky.social to make sense of Turkey's foreign policy. It's complicated! And interesting
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
Making Sense of Turkish Foreign Policy
#100: With Selim Koru
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:29 PM
This week in the newsletter, I speak to @selimkoru.bsky.social to make sense of Turkey's foreign policy. It's complicated! And interesting
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
I deleted social media off my phone in like 2023 and I can honestly say it's been one of the best decisions I've made in the last few years. Bluesky is less bad than Twitter but I just don't think humans are made for 24/7 social media
you should quit social media if you can.
if you can't, you should use apps that give you and old-school reverse chronological feed of posts from people you follow. yes, like bluesky.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
if you can't, you should use apps that give you and old-school reverse chronological feed of posts from people you follow. yes, like bluesky.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
You should quit social media for good
Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I deleted social media off my phone in like 2023 and I can honestly say it's been one of the best decisions I've made in the last few years. Bluesky is less bad than Twitter but I just don't think humans are made for 24/7 social media
"The UK is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN."
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
edition.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:18 PM
"The UK is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN."
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
"The prosecutor in Turkey's biggest city has accused popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of 142 corruption offences that command jail terms ranging from 828 to 2,352 years."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Turkey demands more than 2,000 years' jail for popular Istanbul mayor Imamoglu
Istanbul's chief prosecutor accused Ekrem Imamoglu and 400 others of running a corruption network.
www.bbc.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:21 PM
"The prosecutor in Turkey's biggest city has accused popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of 142 corruption offences that command jail terms ranging from 828 to 2,352 years."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Just another normal day for Chinese diplomacy: After Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan may intervene if Beijing attacks Taiwan, China's consul general in Osaka threatened to behead her
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
November 11, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Just another normal day for Chinese diplomacy: After Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan may intervene if Beijing attacks Taiwan, China's consul general in Osaka threatened to behead her
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
For what it's worth, I don't get the sense that many German voters care about Nord Stream being blown up. If you're already opposed to helping Ukraine it might be useful to mobilise, but I don't think it'll hurt Kyiv too much with people who are generally supportive
November 11, 2025 at 10:42 AM
For what it's worth, I don't get the sense that many German voters care about Nord Stream being blown up. If you're already opposed to helping Ukraine it might be useful to mobilise, but I don't think it'll hurt Kyiv too much with people who are generally supportive
"China added 240GW of solar capacity in the first nine months of this year, and 61GW of wind, putting it on track for another renewable record in 2025. Last year, the country installed 333GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world combined."
"China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, analysis reveals, adding evidence to the hope that the world’s biggest polluter has managed to hit its target of peak CO2 emissions well ahead of schedule."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
November 11, 2025 at 10:28 AM
"China added 240GW of solar capacity in the first nine months of this year, and 61GW of wind, putting it on track for another renewable record in 2025. Last year, the country installed 333GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world combined."
"China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, analysis reveals, adding evidence to the hope that the world’s biggest polluter has managed to hit its target of peak CO2 emissions well ahead of schedule."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
November 11, 2025 at 10:27 AM
"China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, analysis reveals, adding evidence to the hope that the world’s biggest polluter has managed to hit its target of peak CO2 emissions well ahead of schedule."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
“The U.S. military’s long history of remaining apolitical has always depended upon a norm in which the military avoided politics while civilian leadership respected and protected those in uniform from the political fray,” General McChrystal said.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
November 11, 2025 at 10:24 AM
“The U.S. military’s long history of remaining apolitical has always depended upon a norm in which the military avoided politics while civilian leadership respected and protected those in uniform from the political fray,” General McChrystal said.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
Is it bad for the government to be shut down? Seems bad
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Is it bad for the government to be shut down? Seems bad
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
November 7, 2025 at 1:24 PM
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
United States of America, 2025: "One air traffic controller earns cash by hanging Christmas lights for his neighbors. Another stocks grocery store shelves for six hours before heading in for his shift. A third drives for DoorDash after clocking out."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/t...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/t...
Odd Jobs and DoorDash: How Air Traffic Controllers Are Surviving
www.nytimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:16 PM
United States of America, 2025: "One air traffic controller earns cash by hanging Christmas lights for his neighbors. Another stocks grocery store shelves for six hours before heading in for his shift. A third drives for DoorDash after clocking out."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/t...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/t...