Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus.com
Political scientist and author of How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive. Writing The Hundred, a politics newsletter. www.marceldirsus.com
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Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus.com
· Dec 4
In case you missed it: I started a podcast named The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus. You can listen to it on YouTube, Spotify, Apple or wherever else you get your podcasts. It's about war and dictators and geopolitics etc
My one prediction for 2026 is that Germany's annual nuke debate is going to be extra insane this year
January 8, 2026 at 11:47 AM
My one prediction for 2026 is that Germany's annual nuke debate is going to be extra insane this year
"So I had to go to places like Singapore and Malaysia and effectively threaten shipping companies and energy companies and banks with sanctions unless they cut ties with Iran. And I'll tell you, that that is a very awkward conversation to have as an American official."
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY
How the US Weaponized the Global Economy | Edward Fishman
YouTube video by The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus
youtu.be
January 8, 2026 at 10:47 AM
"So I had to go to places like Singapore and Malaysia and effectively threaten shipping companies and energy companies and banks with sanctions unless they cut ties with Iran. And I'll tell you, that that is a very awkward conversation to have as an American official."
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY
I went to Tommy's Diner in Columbus, Ohio to talk to real Americans. What they want more than anything else is war with Denmark
January 7, 2026 at 5:28 PM
I went to Tommy's Diner in Columbus, Ohio to talk to real Americans. What they want more than anything else is war with Denmark
U.S. to Control Venezuela Oil Sales ‘Indefinitely,’ Energy Secretary Says
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...
U.S. to Control Venezuela Oil Sales ‘Indefinitely,’ Energy Secretary Says
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2026 at 3:28 PM
U.S. to Control Venezuela Oil Sales ‘Indefinitely,’ Energy Secretary Says
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...
Money makes the world go round and there's almost no big problem in international relations that doesn't involve economic warfare of some kind. This week in the podcast, I talk to New York Times bestselling author Edward Fishman to find out how it all works. Watch below:
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY?...
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY?...
How the US Weaponized the Global Economy | Edward Fishman
YouTube video by The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus
youtu.be
January 7, 2026 at 1:11 PM
Money makes the world go round and there's almost no big problem in international relations that doesn't involve economic warfare of some kind. This week in the podcast, I talk to New York Times bestselling author Edward Fishman to find out how it all works. Watch below:
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY?...
youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY?...
"There is no sign that the United States’ demands include less repression. Instead the regime is taking the opportunity to crack down."
www.economist.com/the-americas...
www.economist.com/the-americas...
The Venezuelan regime is rapidly consolidating its grip on power
The democratic opposition is left out in the cold
www.economist.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:56 AM
"There is no sign that the United States’ demands include less repression. Instead the regime is taking the opportunity to crack down."
www.economist.com/the-americas...
www.economist.com/the-americas...
The main aim should be to deter Trump by raising the prospective domestic political price by increasing the likelihood that (some) Republicans break ranks. Trump shouldn't be able to take over Greenland without killing Danes and Brits and Germans
This is where Europe has to draw a red line. No flattery, no vague language. We cannot prevent Trump from taking Greenland by force but if he does, he needs to pay a steep price
"U.S. officials in recent days have presented a U.S. move against Greenland as an increasingly concrete possibility in conversations with European counterparts, said a senior European diplomat" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
January 7, 2026 at 11:29 AM
The main aim should be to deter Trump by raising the prospective domestic political price by increasing the likelihood that (some) Republicans break ranks. Trump shouldn't be able to take over Greenland without killing Danes and Brits and Germans
This is where Europe has to draw a red line. No flattery, no vague language. We cannot prevent Trump from taking Greenland by force but if he does, he needs to pay a steep price
"U.S. officials in recent days have presented a U.S. move against Greenland as an increasingly concrete possibility in conversations with European counterparts, said a senior European diplomat" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
White House floats military option for Greenland, rattling Denmark and NATO
The rhetoric follows a dramatic U.S. raid in Venezuela and revives Trump’s long-standing focus on Greenland, transforming diplomatic discussions into fears of coercion. But U.S. military posture there...
www.washingtonpost.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:12 AM
This is where Europe has to draw a red line. No flattery, no vague language. We cannot prevent Trump from taking Greenland by force but if he does, he needs to pay a steep price
Trump rolls some dice once a week and whatever he lands on instantly becomes the most important thing in the world for tens of millions of people. We MUST bomb Nigeria! If we don't get Greenland we can NEVER be safe again! APOCALYPSE! HELL! DEATH!
January 7, 2026 at 10:42 AM
Trump rolls some dice once a week and whatever he lands on instantly becomes the most important thing in the world for tens of millions of people. We MUST bomb Nigeria! If we don't get Greenland we can NEVER be safe again! APOCALYPSE! HELL! DEATH!
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
Let's be real: Trump is not going to war with Russia over Estonia, Finland or Romania. If Putin attacks, we're on our own
January 7, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Let's be real: Trump is not going to war with Russia over Estonia, Finland or Romania. If Putin attacks, we're on our own
Spare a thought for the China hawks that joined this administration thinking that they could take on Beijing but are now busy planning for war against Denmark or Indonesia or whatever else is next. Thoughts and prayers 🙏
January 6, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Spare a thought for the China hawks that joined this administration thinking that they could take on Beijing but are now busy planning for war against Denmark or Indonesia or whatever else is next. Thoughts and prayers 🙏
See when people like this say that America has never engaged in imperialism, I can't tell whether they've genuinely never opened a history book or whether they're just trying to please the boss. What is it?
KERNEN: Europeans are talking about it almost being like Vladimir Putin and Ukraine.
JEFF LANDRY: I disagree. When has the United States engaged in imperialism? Never. Europe has engaged in imperialism. The reason the Danish have Greenland is because of imperialism.
JEFF LANDRY: I disagree. When has the United States engaged in imperialism? Never. Europe has engaged in imperialism. The reason the Danish have Greenland is because of imperialism.
January 6, 2026 at 5:03 PM
See when people like this say that America has never engaged in imperialism, I can't tell whether they've genuinely never opened a history book or whether they're just trying to please the boss. What is it?
"In its third full day, a widespread power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack started to tug on the nerves of tens of thousands of people making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service and warm food or drinks."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/w...
Thousands in Berlin Go Days Without Power and Cell Service After Cables Are Set on Fire
www.nytimes.com
January 6, 2026 at 4:42 PM
"In its third full day, a widespread power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack started to tug on the nerves of tens of thousands of people making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service and warm food or drinks."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/w...
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
„Meist landen Diktatoren im Gefängnis, im Grab oder im Exil. Jemand wie Maduro weiß das.“
Der Politikwissenschaftler Marcel Dirsus darüber, was das Maduro-Kidnapping für Diktatoren weltweit heißt.
@marceldirsus.com
@alisaschllnbrg.bsky.social
@jalenz.bsky.social
www.zeit.de/kultur/2026-...
Der Politikwissenschaftler Marcel Dirsus darüber, was das Maduro-Kidnapping für Diktatoren weltweit heißt.
@marceldirsus.com
@alisaschllnbrg.bsky.social
@jalenz.bsky.social
www.zeit.de/kultur/2026-...
Marcel Dirsus: "Diktaturen sind leichter zu stürzen"
Der Politikwissenschaftler Marcel Dirsus erforscht, wie Diktatoren entmachtet werden. Er erklärt, welche Schlüsse andere Länder aus der Entführung von Maduro ziehen.
www.zeit.de
January 6, 2026 at 4:34 PM
„Meist landen Diktatoren im Gefängnis, im Grab oder im Exil. Jemand wie Maduro weiß das.“
Der Politikwissenschaftler Marcel Dirsus darüber, was das Maduro-Kidnapping für Diktatoren weltweit heißt.
@marceldirsus.com
@alisaschllnbrg.bsky.social
@jalenz.bsky.social
www.zeit.de/kultur/2026-...
Der Politikwissenschaftler Marcel Dirsus darüber, was das Maduro-Kidnapping für Diktatoren weltweit heißt.
@marceldirsus.com
@alisaschllnbrg.bsky.social
@jalenz.bsky.social
www.zeit.de/kultur/2026-...
Holidays are over, new podcast episode tomorrow:
January 6, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Holidays are over, new podcast episode tomorrow:
It doesn't really matter whether an invasion of Greenland is in America's national interest - it obviously isn't. What really matters is whether Trump thinks it would help him personally and/or be good television
January 6, 2026 at 2:14 PM
It doesn't really matter whether an invasion of Greenland is in America's national interest - it obviously isn't. What really matters is whether Trump thinks it would help him personally and/or be good television
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
When the full-scale invasion started in February 2022 Ukraine had 33.7 gigawatts of generating capacity, says an energy consultant. Now it is down to about 14 gigawatts
Ukraine’s power grid is struggling under Russia’s blitz
Putin is trying ever harder to freeze Kyiv into submission
econ.st
January 5, 2026 at 4:40 PM
When the full-scale invasion started in February 2022 Ukraine had 33.7 gigawatts of generating capacity, says an energy consultant. Now it is down to about 14 gigawatts
It's not regime change if the regime didn't change
January 5, 2026 at 3:49 PM
It's not regime change if the regime didn't change
Here's the thing: Nobody really knows what's going on. Trump has no idea what he's doing, we're all trying to interpret his actions through some theoretical frame to make them make sense but perhaps they just don't. No doctrine, no logic, just vibes
January 5, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Here's the thing: Nobody really knows what's going on. Trump has no idea what he's doing, we're all trying to interpret his actions through some theoretical frame to make them make sense but perhaps they just don't. No doctrine, no logic, just vibes
Regime Change in Venezuela?
A few quick thoughts about Maduro
thehundred.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Reposted by Marcel Dirsus
This is a swing of the pendulum too far in the Realist direction. Consistency matters not for persuading China, but for persuading *everyone else*. ie you might get Brazil and Indonesia on board with sanctions on China if they think you're consistently protecting a principle that's in their interest
I've seen a million posts like this but that's just not how international politics works. What really matters is power, not credibility or moral consistency. If Xi Jinping thinks he can successfully invade Taiwan at acceptable cost, he will do it
If Xi Jinping invaded Taiwan right now, and toppled the president there, on what grounds would the United States object? Or have any credibility to say anything?
January 4, 2026 at 1:49 PM
This is a swing of the pendulum too far in the Realist direction. Consistency matters not for persuading China, but for persuading *everyone else*. ie you might get Brazil and Indonesia on board with sanctions on China if they think you're consistently protecting a principle that's in their interest
I've seen a million posts like this but that's just not how international politics works. What really matters is power, not credibility or moral consistency. If Xi Jinping thinks he can successfully invade Taiwan at acceptable cost, he will do it
If Xi Jinping invaded Taiwan right now, and toppled the president there, on what grounds would the United States object? Or have any credibility to say anything?
January 4, 2026 at 12:44 PM
I've seen a million posts like this but that's just not how international politics works. What really matters is power, not credibility or moral consistency. If Xi Jinping thinks he can successfully invade Taiwan at acceptable cost, he will do it
In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter whether European governments put out statements or not. We can do it for domestic consumption but it doesn't actually change anything for anyone
January 4, 2026 at 12:03 PM
In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter whether European governments put out statements or not. We can do it for domestic consumption but it doesn't actually change anything for anyone
A little late to this but: Happy New Year!
January 4, 2026 at 10:13 AM
A little late to this but: Happy New Year!