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Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Jul 29

🎉 New in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: “Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate.”

We quantify a ~65% rise in extreme fire‑weather days (1980–2023) and show common daily‑proxy methods can overestimate trends by up to 10%.

doi.org/10.1038/s416...

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate

Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Jul 11

Happy to share our new paper: we show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe
@climate-guy.bsky.social @pyrogeog.bsky.social
rdcu.be/evJkX
#ClimateChange #Wildfires

Nature Communications - The authors show that extreme fire years in global forests align with rare fire weather extremes. Climate change has made such extremes 88-152% more probable. These findings...

rdcu.be

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Reposted by Marco Turco

Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · Jun 18

Do you have a PlayStation?

If so, Climate Station has launched as a free immersive and compelling data-driven experience of our planet:
blog.playstation.com/2025/06/18/c...

(and @playstation.com have joined #ShowYourStripes!)

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Reposted by Marco Turco

AEMET @aemet.es · May 28

🌡️ El episodio cálido de los próximos dejará temperaturas 6 a 7 ºC superiores a las normales para la época en el conjunto de España.

→ Los días 29 de mayo a 1 de junio podrían ser los más cálidos para esas fechas concretas desde, al menos, 1950.

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · May 28

wclivestream.com

The Weather & Climate Livestream

Join us starting May 28th, as meteorologists and climate scientists from across the US share their research and answer your questions.

wclivestream.com

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · May 23

🗺️ Aprende SIG y cartografía en R del 1 al 4 de julio en Santiago de Compostela. Curso intensivo con @drxeo.eu y Serrano Notivoli. ¡Plazas limitadas! Inscripción: bit.ly/3zR2NDb #RStats #SIG #Cartografía

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · May 12

🚨 New publication alert!
New paper is out in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
🔗 doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
"Too-stable North Atlantic climate system in CMIP6 experiments undermines precipitation projections in Europe"

Too‐stable North Atlantic climate system in CMIP6 experiments undermines precipitation projections in Europe

An original method is applied to identify distinct periods of observed NAO spatial patterns, evaluating the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce them. Their poor representation of ...

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Apr 15

🚨 The Spanish State Research Agency has launched the ATRAE 2025 call!

Aimed at attracting internationally recognized research talent, it offers:

🔹 3–4 year contracts
🔹 Up to €1.2M
🔹 Support for research activities & institutional integration
🔹 Deadline: June 5, 2025

More info 👉 shorturl.at/bmfpr

www.aei.gob.es

MSCA PF 2025 UMU Hosting Offer - Smart Circular Energy Systems for a New Integrated Climate (SCENIC)

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Apr 15

🌀 Hosting offer abierta en la UMU para MSCA PF 2025
¿Trabajas en economía circular, sostenibilidad energética o riesgos climáticos?
Únete a nuestro equipo interdisciplinar en Murcia 🇪🇸

🔗 euraxess.ec.europa.eu/jobs/hosting...

📅 Deadline: 15/6/25
#MSCA #Postdoc #Energy #Climate #CircularEconomy #UMU

euraxess.ec.europa.eu

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Apr 10

Are you an established researcher interested in moving to Spain? The ATRAE 2025 call will open soon, offering up to €1M and a permanent position. At UMU, we’re looking for talent in Earth Physics: portalinvestigacion.um.es/grupos/31964.... Get in touch!

Grupo de Modelización Atmosférica Regional | Grupos de investigación - Universidad de Murcia

portalinvestigacion.um.es

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Apr 10

¿Eres investigador/a consolidado/a y te interesa venir a España? La convocatoria ATRAE 2025 ofrece financiación de hasta 1M € y contrato permanente. En la UMU buscamos talento en Física de la Tierra: portalinvestigacion.um.es/grupos/31964.... Escríbeme.

Grupo de Modelización Atmosférica Regional | Grupos de investigación - Universidad de Murcia

portalinvestigacion.um.es

Water Scarcity and Drought (WSD)-Scilight

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Apr 2

🚨 New open access scientific journal: Water Scarcity and Drought (WSD).

Interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed, and no APCs in 2024-2025.

A great opportunity to showcase quality research in a crucial field.

More info 👉 www.sciltp.com/journals/wsd

Please share if you find it interesting!

www.sciltp.com

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 11

Exciting opportunity! University of Murcia offers the MSCA PF 2025 Hosting Offer in a Data-Driven Predictive Framework for Climate Hazards, Wildfire Dynamics & Human Exposure. PhD holders (max 8 yrs exp) apply by May 31, 2025.

www.euraxess.es/jobs/hosting...

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 4

Our findings stress the need for sub-daily meteorological data in future climate model experiments (e.g., CMIP7) to ensure more accurate wildfire projections. Check out our preprint and data, and let us know your thoughts!
#ClimateChange #Wildfires #FWI

Global Fire Danger Masks at 1° Resolution: Delineating Infrequent Fires and Trend Inconsistencies

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 4

To help the community, we’ve provided two NetCDF datasets:
zenodo.org/records/1496...

• A mask identifying regions with infrequent fires at 1° resolution.
• A mask highlighting areas where trend biases occur using daily approximations.

This repository contains two complementary NetCDF datasets that support the analyses presented in our arXiv preprint:https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.01818 They provide global fire danger masks at a 1° spat...

zenodo.org

Fire danger likely overestimated in future climate projections

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 4

We analyzed global Fire Weather Index (FWI) trends from 1980–2023 and found that using daily meteorological approximations inflates the number of extreme fire weather days. This can lead to an overestimation of wildfire danger in climate projections.

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 4

Excited to share our new preprint on challenges in estimating the Fire Weather Index with climate models!

Daily approximations can overestimate extreme fire danger by up to 10%.

Read the full preprint on arXiv 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2503.01818

Masks available on Zenodo 👉 zenodo.org/records/1496...

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is widely used to assess wildfire danger and relies on meteorological data at local noon. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated data, which ...

arxiv.org

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Mar 3

Hybrid dynamical & ML models deliver seasonal wildfire forecasts by combining SPI data & random forests 🔥🌍
Check out the study here: www.nature.com/articles/s44... #Wildfire #ClimateScience #ML

Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models - npj Natural Hazards

npj Natural Hazards - Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models

www.nature.com

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Feb 17

We’re happy to share our preprint "From Night Lights to Wildfire Risk: Uncovering Human Exposure in a Mediterranean Hotspot": Urban growth is amplifying wildfire exposure in Catalonia.

Feedback is welcome! Read the preprint here: doi.org/10.21203/rs....

🔥🌍 #Wildfires #ClimateChange #Urbanization

From Night Lights to Wildfire Risk: Uncovering Human Exposure in a Mediterranean Hotspot

This study examines the evolution of human exposure to wildfires in Catalonia, Spain, over the period 1992–2021, by integrating geospatial data on fire perimeters, population, satellite-derived nightt...

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Feb 13

This is the global mean

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Feb 13

🔥📊 2024: A Record Year for Extreme Fire Weather 📊🔥

2024 has set a new record since 1979, with 9 more days of extreme Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions than any previous year in the ERA5 dataset.

#ClimateChange #Wildfires #FireWeather #FWI #ClimateCrisis #ERA5 #ExtremeEvents

The bars represent FWI anomalies (days above the 95th percentile) from ERA5 data, colored by temperature anomalies.

2024 stands out as the year with the highest number of extreme FWI days since 1979.

The data suggest a strong link between rising temperatures and an increasing frequency of extreme fire weather conditions.

The FWI is a meteorological index that indicates how favorable conditions are for fire spread and intensity, driven by temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation.

Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Feb 8

Are you working on groundbreaking research in natural hazards? 🌊🌋🌩️

npj Natural Hazards (Nature Portfolio) welcomes your submissions! 📝✨
Join a global community addressing climate risks, extreme weather, wildfires, landslides, and more.

🔗 Submit your work today: www.nature.com/npjnathazards/

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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · Jan 23

I left twitter:

#Xodus