I agree about the extra £2.5bn of business taxes

0.7% rise from 0.5% above £3m threshold is not due to 29/30

Only In-Parliament change is reducing threshold for NLPs to £2m then £1m to raise £625m. A lot of political pain for little gain

Pay on all measures at 4.5-5.0%, falling slowly and CPI at 3.6% higher than expected

Likely base rate cut to 4.0% in Aug but uncertain for Nov

Large job losses in sectors offering first jobs to young people

But more 18s applying for FT HE and 16-17s likely in FT FE: Good news to keep NEET down

We now know that 43,000 16-24s will lose PIP (more than in the Royal Navy)

12K are employed but some are students

31K are not employed but some are students or NEET

Clearly, not all 16-24s losing PIP are NEET

Dropping out of education or employment could lead NEET to rise not fall

Welfare reforms for young people is not just a loss of LCWRA (18-21) but also a PIP issue (16-24s especially if DLAc extended to 18th birthday)

Welfare reforms for young people is not just a loss of LCWRA (18-21) but also a PIP issue (16-24s especially if DLAc extended to 18th birthday)

43,000 young people aged 16-24 in England and Wales would lose the DLE of PIP by not achieving 4 points in any activity

About 30% are employed but some could be full time students

The remaining 70% are full time students or NEET

DWP/DfE don’t know

Maybe now there will be more focus on 16-24s

A key question is how many of 430,000 will be 16-24 year olds?

The stock figure is that 43,000 16-24s would have lost PIP (DLE)

Only a minority are employed.

Some are
- employed in FT FE/HE
- full time FE/HE students not working
- already NEET

And another thing... just because a young person is in employment doesn't mean they aren't in education at the same time - they could be working some shifts around FE or HE courses. Losing the PIP funding could make this less workable, so maybe at risk of stopping one or both, and becoming NEET.

And not necessarily the main question for 16-24s losing PIP.

Main question is will loss of PIP cause more 16-24s in full time FE/HE and unemployed and inactive studying part time FE/HE to drop out or applying in the future?

And for the 16-24 year old group will the cut to the daily living element of PIP due to the 4 point threshold cause not just a fall in employment but a fall in Full Time Further and Higher Education?

Let’s see if the Education Select Committee makes the same proposal

Interesting that DfE Mains 2025/26 estimate says more core schools funding above £63.7bn to come in FY2025/26 (Page 27)

So 25/26 baseline could be higher than ‘protected schools’ of £n (core + other)?

But the strategy cannot just be employers and jobs

We need bumper recruitment this September in full time FE in our schools and colleges by 16-17 year olds and full time HE in our universities and colleges by 18 and 19 year olds

And even the LLE will create a single tuition fee loan at L4/6 there will still a further 5 operating at L3-8 in post-16 education and skills

And even the LLE will create a single tuition fee loan at L4/6 there will still a further 5 operating at L3-8 in post-16 education and skills

Two key points from today:

- still need to know the share of L7 apprentices under 22?

- will the Growth & Skills Levy be more directive than apprenticeship levy to ensure levy payers and non levy payers recruit under 22 or under 24 apprentices and how?

Historic falls in employer spending on training has coincided with falls in business investment & R&D

Key question is how much of the c£46bn spent by employers on training in England is on skills training which boosts firm based productivity (outside apprenticeships and Skills Bootcamps)