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Reposted by Paul Bivand

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 1d

👇🎯🧵

The Narrative™️ cannot fail. It can only be failed. "College isn't worth it for employment anymore & AI is taking all the jobs" edition.

Sam Thorpe @samthorpe.bsky.social · 1d

It turns out that once you correct for this error, unemployment is actually rising faster for NON-degree workers - meaning that explanations in terms of AI replacing the college-educated workforce don't make much sense, and this looks a lot more like an across-the-board labor market slowdown.

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Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 20h

Outstanding from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - the best way to get a job is to get a degree. You will almost almost always earn more as well.

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20h

Really interesting article from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com but especially intriguing to me is the number of comments below that are essentially 'OK the data don't agree with my hunch but here's an unrelated statement that proves that I'm right about AI, the death of higher education, etc'

What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong

People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts

www.ft.com

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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20h

Really interesting article from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com but especially intriguing to me is the number of comments below that are essentially 'OK the data don't agree with my hunch but here's an unrelated statement that proves that I'm right about AI, the death of higher education, etc'

What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong

People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts

www.ft.com

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Frances 'Cassandra' Coppola @francescoppola.bsky.social · 1d

Economic lessons from a Biblical fable: my latest piece at
@themintmag
.
Pharoah, advised by the talented Joseph, stored up enough grain to survive a famine, and in so doing engineered a fundamental change in the organisation of Egyptian society.

www.themintmagazine.com/from-reserve...

From Reserves to Repression – The Mint Magazine

www.themintmagazine.com

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Anna Dent @annadent.bsky.social · 1d

ICO orders DWP to

"disclose the list of all AI tools DWP plans to place on the Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standards Hub"

I.e. publish details of all the AI they are using unless there is a valid reason to keep it secret

h/t @rightsnet.org.uk

Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)

ico.org.uk

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Mark Sutton @marksuttonbike.bsky.social · 2d

Something like this?

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John Pring, DNS @johnpring.bsky.social · 2d

Alarm over government’s choices to lead ‘over-diagnosis’ review that could help ministers cut benefits
#MentalHealth #DisabilityBenefits
@ritb.bsky.social @dis-ppl-protest.bsky.social
www.disabilitynewsservice.com/alarm-over-g...

Alarm over government’s choices to lead ‘over-diagnosis’ review that could help ministers cut benefits

The government’s decision to commission a review of alleged “over-diagnosis” of mental health conditions and neurodivergence has caused alarm among many disabled people, with fears that it will all…

www.disabilitynewsservice.com

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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 2d

By me this week - the happiest thing I've got to report of late, with a glorious trip over the summer to Montreal

"Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport."

www.economist.com/internationa...

Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport

Pedal power is booming, spinning up a new culture war

www.economist.com

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 3d

Did US railroads use 1 chain measuring tapes?

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

NEW: The UK social security system offers relatively little income protection after job loss.

THREAD on Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter on the options for introducing ‘unemployment insurance’:

Chart shows net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner with no children. Title states: "Unemployment benefits in the UK are low compared to OECD countries, and contributory benefits are no higher than means-tested benefits."

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Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 4d

Sometimes a statistic is counterintuitive. This is not one: every adult in Britain has experienced greater interaction with people of different ethnic backgrounds over their lifetime

As I say in this thread, this statistical fact is obvious in every aspect of our lives, & all of us know/feel it

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 4d

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

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Elle @centristmum.bsky.social · 4d

Sometimes you think 'oh it can't really be that bad can it' and then you click on the link and it turns out it is exactly that bad www.bbc.com/news/article...

Council demolishes play area after noise complaints

Parents in a Derbyshire town say their children are 'devastated' they have lost the facility.

www.bbc.com

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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 4d

Great column from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com where she casts her forensic eye over the introduction of collective bargaining in the social care sector. TL:DR it could work given adult care is a weird market largely paid for by local authorities; but as usual will there be enough cash? on.ft.com/4mSfeVm

The most radical Labour plan you haven’t heard about

Collective bargaining in social care could save an ailing sector — but only if it’s done properly

on.ft.com

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 5d

Looked at OECD data on ageing population, and think we may have missed the fiscal effects of declining numbers of children. OECD chart ages only, France as similar population, more extreme changes.

Chart from OECD data showing age dependency rations (of 20-64 population) for UK and France from 1950 on.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 5d

This whole obsession with "too many people going to uni" is such a classic example of the parochialism of UK policymaking. No one bothers to ask why the % here is lower than in most other developed countries or whether that might be relevant.

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 5d

Visiting Czechoslovakia in 1972, 4 years after the tanks went in, might be a study in propaganda.

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 5d

With the demand following graduate earnings premia over A Levels or GCSEs. The case for young people doing qualifications below degrees based on earning/employment isn't clear, despite loud (and usually self-interested) voices.

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 6d

A pub in London Fields is trying to put up a timber canopy over its outside seating.

The planning process so far has taken FIVE YEARS. That’s longer than it took to build the entire Hoover Dam. capx.co/nimby-watch-...

capx.co

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 5d

Fortunately, no evidence yet that AI thinks hallucinating debts is just fine.

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 6d

So this is a partially AI report into the earlier version of AI known as 'Robodebt' which penalised low-income Australians on imaginary evidence. @annadent.bsky.social

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 6d

Reminder: this is to put a canopy on an existing outdoor pub deck. 🙃

Let’s take a look at this application. The application form is 21 pages long, and that’s just the very beginning. It has 26 supporting documents attached to it. Among them is a 16-page proposal document prepared by the consultancy Magenta Planning. There is a six page long form on the Community Infrastructure Levy. There is a 14-page long biodiversity survey and report, prepared by Arbtech, a second consultancy. That’s in turn dwarfed by a 59-page long heritage assessment, produced by Cotswold Archaeology – a third consultancy. And there’s absolutely no guarantee that this application will even succeed.

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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 6d

Though on the nimby/yimby dimension, conservatives look more like Lib Dems and Ramsay/Chowns Greens, and fairly clearly that has had an impact on local council votes.

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Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · 7d

None of the proposed two-child limit options are as efficient in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the policy.

Fully abolishing the two-child limit should be the starting point of any successful Child Poverty Strategy.

Read more➡️ buff.ly/DyvTYGN

Table 1 shows the cost per child lifted out of poverty for fully scrapping the two-child limit
and each of the floated options. The only option that has a similar cost-effectiveness to full
abolition is exempting families who are in work, at £7,540 per child lifted out of poverty,
(compared to £7,480 for full abolition). The lower cost-effectiveness of the other options
should be considered alongside the issues outlined above that each option would introduce.

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John Bull @garius.bsky.social · 8d

A lot of people don't understand how pensions (or benefits) really work.

They picture a national savings account in which their 'own' taxes are stored until they retire.

Not that they were paying for the person before them, and now someone else is doing it for them, so inflation doesn't screw them

Silversprite @silversprite.bsky.social · 8d

On a bus. Fares across Worcestershire are £1 per journey every weekend in October.

Four seniors boarded. They are loudly complaining. Quote: "They shouldn't do this £1 fare. It's workshy folk getting stuff for free yet again. No-one gives us pensioners anything."

The seniors all used bus passes.

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Work Foundation @workfoundation.bsky.social · 9d

🏆 Our #ResearchOfTheMonth goes to @timewise.bsky.social for their research paper 'Healthy By Design?' which shows that just 60,000 of the 2.4 million people economically inactive due to long-term ill health find a job each year. (1/5)

Read here: timewise.co.uk/article/why-...

Front cover of Timewise report, Health by design? Why better jobs for all should be a goal for UK Industrial Policy.

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