math democrat
@mathdemocrat.bsky.social
Progressive democrat. Proud supporter of the Democratic Party and President Biden & Vice President Kamala Harris. I love 😺 cats very much! Academic background/ degrees are in mathematics (ie proof/theory). Math=Logic. Longtime Daily Kos poster.
The timeline effectively eliminates the claim that the great reduction in the rate of inflation in the US was caused by the Federal Reserve Board and this graph makes that clear.
January 29, 2026 at 4:59 PM
The timeline effectively eliminates the claim that the great reduction in the rate of inflation in the US was caused by the Federal Reserve Board and this graph makes that clear.
My graph makes it impossible to reasonably argue that anything unique to the United States (something connected to President Biden) was a non-trivial cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. .90 synchronicity.
January 29, 2026 at 4:54 PM
My graph makes it impossible to reasonably argue that anything unique to the United States (something connected to President Biden) was a non-trivial cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. .90 synchronicity.
Period (Last 6 Months)
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
January 29, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Period (Last 6 Months)
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Comparative Job Growth Table
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Comparative Job Growth Table
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
Further, the United States economy has created only about between 24,000 jobs to 90,000 jobs over the last six months, an average of only about between 4,000 jobs created per month to 15,000 jobs created per month.
.
.
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Further, the United States economy has created only about between 24,000 jobs to 90,000 jobs over the last six months, an average of only about between 4,000 jobs created per month to 15,000 jobs created per month.
.
.
Thus, the last most current and credible rate of inflation, 3.0%, was a foreseeable outcome of the choice made in November.
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Thus, the last most current and credible rate of inflation, 3.0%, was a foreseeable outcome of the choice made in November.
It's something else entirely when inflation is driven back up because certain policies are chosen, namely steep tariffs against almost every trading partner we have and mass deportation, that are known to be inflationary.
January 29, 2026 at 4:29 PM
It's something else entirely when inflation is driven back up because certain policies are chosen, namely steep tariffs against almost every trading partner we have and mass deportation, that are known to be inflationary.
Presumably the rate of inflation would have continued to fall had the vice president prevailed.
January 29, 2026 at 4:29 PM
Presumably the rate of inflation would have continued to fall had the vice president prevailed.
It's one thing when inflation is high because of an external exogenous event like a once in a century pandemic and then it is brought down dramatically by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 to June of 2023.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
It's one thing when inflation is high because of an external exogenous event like a once in a century pandemic and then it is brought down dramatically by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 to June of 2023.
On the other hand, the policies advocated for by the alternative candidate were known to be inflationary and many economists warned voters of this prior to the election.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
On the other hand, the policies advocated for by the alternative candidate were known to be inflationary and many economists warned voters of this prior to the election.
Moreover, the rate of inflation fell sharply in the US by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 through June of 2023 not because of the actions of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but because of the action of restoring the supply chain by the administration.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Moreover, the rate of inflation fell sharply in the US by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 through June of 2023 not because of the actions of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but because of the action of restoring the supply chain by the administration.
We have learned that while inflation was high in the United States during 2021 and 2022 especially, this was almost completely caused by the pandemic, not the administration or their oil production policy or the legislation they passed .
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
We have learned that while inflation was high in the United States during 2021 and 2022 especially, this was almost completely caused by the pandemic, not the administration or their oil production policy or the legislation they passed .
Again, replacing them with citizens increases the wages paid which drives prices up. There is already a shortage in housing supply which is already causing an increase in rent and mortgages across the country. Thus, mass deportation is actually an inflationary policy.
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Again, replacing them with citizens increases the wages paid which drives prices up. There is already a shortage in housing supply which is already causing an increase in rent and mortgages across the country. Thus, mass deportation is actually an inflationary policy.
Eliminating this labor supply means reducing crop supply. When we reduce supply, then unless demand falls equivalently, we see an increase in price. Moreover, many undocumented people work in construction, helping to build homes.
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Eliminating this labor supply means reducing crop supply. When we reduce supply, then unless demand falls equivalently, we see an increase in price. Moreover, many undocumented people work in construction, helping to build homes.
Many undocumented people are part of the food production and crop process. This is especially true of gathering crops. These workers frequently are paid less than citizens who mostly would not do the work at any price because of the physically demanding conditions.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Many undocumented people are part of the food production and crop process. This is especially true of gathering crops. These workers frequently are paid less than citizens who mostly would not do the work at any price because of the physically demanding conditions.
Therefore, the history as well as the theory, suggests that retailers pass through the tariff to consumers by increasing the price. If the good is not essential, then demand is not inelastic with regard to price. This can lead to a reduction in consumer spending.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Therefore, the history as well as the theory, suggests that retailers pass through the tariff to consumers by increasing the price. If the good is not essential, then demand is not inelastic with regard to price. This can lead to a reduction in consumer spending.
This means, the retailer now faces a new and significant expense while having a low profit margin on the good. They generally can't afford to absorb much of the expense themselves because of the low profit margin and the reduction this would cause in their overall profit.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
This means, the retailer now faces a new and significant expense while having a low profit margin on the good. They generally can't afford to absorb much of the expense themselves because of the low profit margin and the reduction this would cause in their overall profit.
The retailer can refuse to pay the tariff, but they would not be able to take possession of the goods they paid the Chinese supplier to manufacture. Thus, they pay the federal government the tariff.
January 29, 2026 at 4:25 PM
The retailer can refuse to pay the tariff, but they would not be able to take possession of the goods they paid the Chinese supplier to manufacture. Thus, they pay the federal government the tariff.
The Chinese supplier manufactures the good and places it on a container ship and it is sent to a US port. When the goods arrive, the retailer can only take possession of the good if they pay the federal government the tariff.
January 29, 2026 at 4:25 PM
The Chinese supplier manufactures the good and places it on a container ship and it is sent to a US port. When the goods arrive, the retailer can only take possession of the good if they pay the federal government the tariff.
This is because the good can have the highest quality available at a very low cost. If there were a less expensive alternative, the retailer would have chosen it. Therefore, there is no room to negotiate for lower prices.
January 29, 2026 at 4:24 PM
This is because the good can have the highest quality available at a very low cost. If there were a less expensive alternative, the retailer would have chosen it. Therefore, there is no room to negotiate for lower prices.
Retailers in the United States place orders for goods to be manufactured by suppliers, perhaps in China. The retailer pays the Chinese supplier. The retailer chose to have their good manufactured in China because it was the most profitable place to have it manufactured.
January 29, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Retailers in the United States place orders for goods to be manufactured by suppliers, perhaps in China. The retailer pays the Chinese supplier. The retailer chose to have their good manufactured in China because it was the most profitable place to have it manufactured.
It is well-understood that a wide imposition of steep tariffs against major trading partners all over the world is an inflationary Act. This is different than a few isolated, moderate tariffs on specific goods for specific reasons.
January 29, 2026 at 4:23 PM
It is well-understood that a wide imposition of steep tariffs against major trading partners all over the world is an inflationary Act. This is different than a few isolated, moderate tariffs on specific goods for specific reasons.
The rate of inflation was high in 2021 and 2022, but it was high because of an external exogenous event. Then it fell dramatically primarily due to the actions of the administration in clearing the supply chain.
Inflation reached 2.4% in the beginning of 2025.
Inflation reached 2.4% in the beginning of 2025.
January 29, 2026 at 4:23 PM
The rate of inflation was high in 2021 and 2022, but it was high because of an external exogenous event. Then it fell dramatically primarily due to the actions of the administration in clearing the supply chain.
Inflation reached 2.4% in the beginning of 2025.
Inflation reached 2.4% in the beginning of 2025.
So, the status of orders in the ports was confusing. The administration made all of this information & what was happening at each port widely available to retailers. This greatly helped clear up the supply chain. By restoring the supply chain, the administration brought down the rate of inflation.
January 29, 2026 at 4:22 PM
So, the status of orders in the ports was confusing. The administration made all of this information & what was happening at each port widely available to retailers. This greatly helped clear up the supply chain. By restoring the supply chain, the administration brought down the rate of inflation.
Retailers did not know where their orders were or if they were being filled. Consequently, they commonly placed multiple orders to meet customer demand because they did not known whether the orders were being filled or not.
January 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Retailers did not know where their orders were or if they were being filled. Consequently, they commonly placed multiple orders to meet customer demand because they did not known whether the orders were being filled or not.