math democrat
@mathdemocrat.bsky.social
Progressive democrat. Proud supporter of the Democratic Party and President Biden & Vice President Kamala Harris. I love 😺 cats very much! Academic background/ degrees are in mathematics (ie proof/theory). Math=Logic. Longtime Daily Kos poster.
Pinned
The "socialist" label energizes a specific coalition—young people, people of color, and lower-income Democrats—but it simultaneously alienates a larger and, in most competitive elections, more decisive coalition of older voters, white voters, higher-income voters, and political independents.
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That only shows that ideologues on the left are every bit as apathetic to truth as MAGA on the right. That not a handful of people. It's 75,000. It's hard to imagine they don't know she is lying to them. Yet they are still following her. That is wild stuff.
November 25, 2025 at 3:26 PM
That only shows that ideologues on the left are every bit as apathetic to truth as MAGA on the right. That not a handful of people. It's 75,000. It's hard to imagine they don't know she is lying to them. Yet they are still following her. That is wild stuff.
Somebody with 75.3K followers put up what I am almost certain was a fake President Obama video pushing to impeach and remove Trump's regime and Democrats right now. With these numbers and the call including Democrats, Obama didn't say that. Yet 75K followers are okay being lied to. Crazy.
November 25, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Somebody with 75.3K followers put up what I am almost certain was a fake President Obama video pushing to impeach and remove Trump's regime and Democrats right now. With these numbers and the call including Democrats, Obama didn't say that. Yet 75K followers are okay being lied to. Crazy.
Reposted by math democrat
"Mr. Trump's attempt to bludgeon GOP state legislatures to redo their districts could turn out to be a misjudgment that costs Republicans their House majority.” — Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal
November 24, 2025 at 7:36 PM
"Mr. Trump's attempt to bludgeon GOP state legislatures to redo their districts could turn out to be a misjudgment that costs Republicans their House majority.” — Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal
Reposted by math democrat
there is a genuine question of whether the House will have a Republican majority in 2026
November 22, 2025 at 4:48 AM
there is a genuine question of whether the House will have a Republican majority in 2026
Reposted by math democrat
Punchbowl News: "The idea that Republicans could lose their majority this Congress is no longer far-fetched"
A senior House Republican: "'Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.'"
punchbowl.news/archive/1124...
A senior House Republican: "'Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.'"
punchbowl.news/archive/1124...
11/24/25 ☀️ AM:
PRESENTED BY IN THIS EDITION What MTG got rightCIA in Mexico raised concerns about Crenshaw to LangleyCan Congress actually pass Russia sanctions
punchbowl.news
November 24, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Punchbowl News: "The idea that Republicans could lose their majority this Congress is no longer far-fetched"
A senior House Republican: "'Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.'"
punchbowl.news/archive/1124...
A senior House Republican: "'Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.'"
punchbowl.news/archive/1124...
Reposted by math democrat
Reposted by math democrat
We must win this race!! Go Doug Jones!
The lamebrain tuberville is no one that should be in charge of anything.
Let's go @fieldteam6.org
Let's go @demcast.com
Donate @dougjones.bsky.social
www.dougjones.com
#Voices4Victory
#USDemocracy
The lamebrain tuberville is no one that should be in charge of anything.
Let's go @fieldteam6.org
Let's go @demcast.com
Donate @dougjones.bsky.social
www.dougjones.com
#Voices4Victory
#USDemocracy
November 24, 2025 at 11:04 PM
We must win this race!! Go Doug Jones!
The lamebrain tuberville is no one that should be in charge of anything.
Let's go @fieldteam6.org
Let's go @demcast.com
Donate @dougjones.bsky.social
www.dougjones.com
#Voices4Victory
#USDemocracy
The lamebrain tuberville is no one that should be in charge of anything.
Let's go @fieldteam6.org
Let's go @demcast.com
Donate @dougjones.bsky.social
www.dougjones.com
#Voices4Victory
#USDemocracy
Again, voters who were unallocated in the aggregate of polls voting for president does not make them wrong. Secretary Clinton, President Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris all held onto almost all of their vote that polls said they had.
November 25, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Again, voters who were unallocated in the aggregate of polls voting for president does not make them wrong. Secretary Clinton, President Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris all held onto almost all of their vote that polls said they had.
Simply because the unallocated did in the end vote for president doesn't make the polling wrong. If somebody thinks it shows the polls were far off, then it means that they simply ignored the fact that the aggregate had a segment of their respondents who were unallocated.
November 25, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Simply because the unallocated did in the end vote for president doesn't make the polling wrong. If somebody thinks it shows the polls were far off, then it means that they simply ignored the fact that the aggregate had a segment of their respondents who were unallocated.
So what happened in the past? What has happened has been that the Democratic Party's nominee has held with very little loss from the aggregate in the poll. We have simply seen the unallocated finally make a choice.
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
So what happened in the past? What has happened has been that the Democratic Party's nominee has held with very little loss from the aggregate in the poll. We have simply seen the unallocated finally make a choice.
So you come up with how you believe the unallocated will end up voting and get a ratio and add this to each major political party's nominee's poll number in the aggregate and that should give you an accurate estimate of the percentage of the vote that each major political party's nominee will win.
November 25, 2025 at 9:13 AM
So you come up with how you believe the unallocated will end up voting and get a ratio and add this to each major political party's nominee's poll number in the aggregate and that should give you an accurate estimate of the percentage of the vote that each major political party's nominee will win.
If the polling momentum (the trend), the national political environment, and the economy all strongly lean one way then that can be enough to overcome the partisan lean of those in the same demographic groups who are unallocated.
November 25, 2025 at 9:09 AM
If the polling momentum (the trend), the national political environment, and the economy all strongly lean one way then that can be enough to overcome the partisan lean of those in the same demographic groups who are unallocated.
So you look at the demographics, but that can be overcome but only in the most extreme of circumstances. The other main factors are the economy and the voters' perception of the economy, the national political environment, and polling momentum.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 AM
So you look at the demographics, but that can be overcome but only in the most extreme of circumstances. The other main factors are the economy and the voters' perception of the economy, the national political environment, and polling momentum.
Some may not vote for president and some may vote third party, but not most. So you need to allocate them. How do you allocate them? The dominant factor will be their demographics. It takes a lot to overcome the demographic's partisan lean.
November 25, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Some may not vote for president and some may vote third party, but not most. So you need to allocate them. How do you allocate them? The dominant factor will be their demographics. It takes a lot to overcome the demographic's partisan lean.
So if the aggregate of the polls has A at say 47% (D Party's nominee) and B (R Party's nominee) at 46% and we'll ignore third party. That gives us 7% of the surveys in the aggregate who are not allocated. But the 7% likely lean one way and likely will vote for one of the 2 parties' nominees.
November 25, 2025 at 9:02 AM
So if the aggregate of the polls has A at say 47% (D Party's nominee) and B (R Party's nominee) at 46% and we'll ignore third party. That gives us 7% of the surveys in the aggregate who are not allocated. But the 7% likely lean one way and likely will vote for one of the 2 parties' nominees.
Then there will be a certain percentage of the vote in the aggregate for the other major political party's nominee for president. The rest are what I call "unallocated". I don't call them undecided because most aren't actually truly undecided.
November 25, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Then there will be a certain percentage of the vote in the aggregate for the other major political party's nominee for president. The rest are what I call "unallocated". I don't call them undecided because most aren't actually truly undecided.
I prefer to start with the Democratic Party's nominee for president. So surveys give a certain percentage of the vote to that candidate. There will be some third party vote, but generally it will be low and as we get closer to the election, that percentage will fall in this partisan time .
November 25, 2025 at 8:57 AM
I prefer to start with the Democratic Party's nominee for president. So surveys give a certain percentage of the vote to that candidate. There will be some third party vote, but generally it will be low and as we get closer to the election, that percentage will fall in this partisan time .
We need to look at the aggregate (a good aggregate that doesn't include junk partisan pollsters with bad methodology and/or a bad track record) and see what the number is for one major political party's nominee. That's where they start in your prognostication.
November 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM
We need to look at the aggregate (a good aggregate that doesn't include junk partisan pollsters with bad methodology and/or a bad track record) and see what the number is for one major political party's nominee. That's where they start in your prognostication.
I am going to offer some of my thoughts on polling. Contrary to pundits, polling in the last 3 presidential elections has not been far off. People who think that don't understand how to read polls. I am going to explain what I mean.
November 25, 2025 at 8:52 AM
I am going to offer some of my thoughts on polling. Contrary to pundits, polling in the last 3 presidential elections has not been far off. People who think that don't understand how to read polls. I am going to explain what I mean.
d. CA Prop 50
1. Zero candidates on ballot
2. Won by nearly 30 percentage points, Harris won by only 20.
1. Zero candidates on ballot
2. Won by nearly 30 percentage points, Harris won by only 20.
November 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
d. CA Prop 50
1. Zero candidates on ballot
2. Won by nearly 30 percentage points, Harris won by only 20.
1. Zero candidates on ballot
2. Won by nearly 30 percentage points, Harris won by only 20.
7. PA retention of PA state Supreme Court judges
a. Republican billionaire spent hundreds of millions of dollars
b. All 3 Democratic PA state Supreme Court judges won by 20%
c. Democrats won statewide utility government positions in GA by 20%
a. Republican billionaire spent hundreds of millions of dollars
b. All 3 Democratic PA state Supreme Court judges won by 20%
c. Democrats won statewide utility government positions in GA by 20%
November 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
7. PA retention of PA state Supreme Court judges
a. Republican billionaire spent hundreds of millions of dollars
b. All 3 Democratic PA state Supreme Court judges won by 20%
c. Democrats won statewide utility government positions in GA by 20%
a. Republican billionaire spent hundreds of millions of dollars
b. All 3 Democratic PA state Supreme Court judges won by 20%
c. Democrats won statewide utility government positions in GA by 20%
6. AG VA election
a. Republican incumbent Miyares
b. Jones (Democracy challenger) unethical text scandal
c. Jones polls were bad
d. Jones predicted to lose won by 6 percentage points
a. Republican incumbent Miyares
b. Jones (Democracy challenger) unethical text scandal
c. Jones polls were bad
d. Jones predicted to lose won by 6 percentage points
November 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
6. AG VA election
a. Republican incumbent Miyares
b. Jones (Democracy challenger) unethical text scandal
c. Jones polls were bad
d. Jones predicted to lose won by 6 percentage points
a. Republican incumbent Miyares
b. Jones (Democracy challenger) unethical text scandal
c. Jones polls were bad
d. Jones predicted to lose won by 6 percentage points
5. Muslim Democrat running for Lieutenant Governor won by double digits and was first Muslim woman to win a statewide election in US Ghazala Hashmi
6
6
November 24, 2025 at 6:40 PM
5. Muslim Democrat running for Lieutenant Governor won by double digits and was first Muslim woman to win a statewide election in US Ghazala Hashmi
6
6
b. NJ Gov
1. close polls
2. Unpopular Democratic incumbent Governor Murphy
3. 3 consecutive Dem terms in Governor has not happened in 60 years
4. Mikie Sherrill won by 13 percentage points
1. close polls
2. Unpopular Democratic incumbent Governor Murphy
3. 3 consecutive Dem terms in Governor has not happened in 60 years
4. Mikie Sherrill won by 13 percentage points
November 24, 2025 at 6:40 PM
b. NJ Gov
1. close polls
2. Unpopular Democratic incumbent Governor Murphy
3. 3 consecutive Dem terms in Governor has not happened in 60 years
4. Mikie Sherrill won by 13 percentage points
1. close polls
2. Unpopular Democratic incumbent Governor Murphy
3. 3 consecutive Dem terms in Governor has not happened in 60 years
4. Mikie Sherrill won by 13 percentage points
9. Off year election results- not simply Democrats winning in Blue states
a. VA Gov
1. Harris won VA by 6
2. Youngkin won VA by 2 percentage points
3. Spanberger won by 15 percentage points
a. VA Gov
1. Harris won VA by 6
2. Youngkin won VA by 2 percentage points
3. Spanberger won by 15 percentage points
November 24, 2025 at 6:38 PM
9. Off year election results- not simply Democrats winning in Blue states
a. VA Gov
1. Harris won VA by 6
2. Youngkin won VA by 2 percentage points
3. Spanberger won by 15 percentage points
a. VA Gov
1. Harris won VA by 6
2. Youngkin won VA by 2 percentage points
3. Spanberger won by 15 percentage points