math democrat
@mathdemocrat.bsky.social
Progressive democrat. Proud supporter of the Democratic Party and President Biden & Vice President Kamala Harris. I love 😺 cats very much! Academic background/ degrees are in mathematics (ie proof/theory). Math=Logic. Longtime Daily Kos poster.
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math democrat
@mathdemocrat.bsky.social
· Nov 22
The "socialist" label energizes a specific coalition—young people, people of color, and lower-income Democrats—but it simultaneously alienates a larger and, in most competitive elections, more decisive coalition of older voters, white voters, higher-income voters, and political independents.
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The timeline effectively eliminates the claim that the great reduction in the rate of inflation in the US was caused by the Federal Reserve Board and this graph makes that clear.
January 29, 2026 at 4:59 PM
The timeline effectively eliminates the claim that the great reduction in the rate of inflation in the US was caused by the Federal Reserve Board and this graph makes that clear.
My graph makes it impossible to reasonably argue that anything unique to the United States (something connected to President Biden) was a non-trivial cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. .90 synchronicity.
January 29, 2026 at 4:54 PM
My graph makes it impossible to reasonably argue that anything unique to the United States (something connected to President Biden) was a non-trivial cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. .90 synchronicity.
But until they learn that inflation was high under Biden because of the pandemic, not because of his policies, and that it came down sharply because of him, they won't realize they should have voted for Vice President Kamala Harris.
January 29, 2026 at 4:49 PM
But until they learn that inflation was high under Biden because of the pandemic, not because of his policies, and that it came down sharply because of him, they won't realize they should have voted for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Many of the election deciders realize Trump has made inflation and the economy worse, not better. .
January 29, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Many of the election deciders realize Trump has made inflation and the economy worse, not better. .
Most people have some sense that the rate of inflation is higher than what Trump's regime is telling us, but they don't know just how strong the evidence is to support that proposition or why.
January 29, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Most people have some sense that the rate of inflation is higher than what Trump's regime is telling us, but they don't know just how strong the evidence is to support that proposition or why.
Moreover, most people credit the great reduction (they don't even realize how great it was) to the Federal Reserve Board and not President Biden's actions restoring the supply chain, again views flatly contradicted by the data.
January 29, 2026 at 4:43 PM
Moreover, most people credit the great reduction (they don't even realize how great it was) to the Federal Reserve Board and not President Biden's actions restoring the supply chain, again views flatly contradicted by the data.
Amazingly, despite all the data that contradicts this, a great many people believe that President Biden and specifically his The American Rescue Plan were a significant or even primary cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. This is flatly contradicted by the data.
January 29, 2026 at 4:41 PM
Amazingly, despite all the data that contradicts this, a great many people believe that President Biden and specifically his The American Rescue Plan were a significant or even primary cause of the increase in the rate of inflation in the US. This is flatly contradicted by the data.
Inflation and the broader economy were actually both reasons to vote for continuity and democracy, not Trump and fascism.
January 29, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Inflation and the broader economy were actually both reasons to vote for continuity and democracy, not Trump and fascism.
Unfortunately as we learned, this was not the case. Fascism does not generally produce a prosperous economy and authoritarians frequently call the shots over the central bank, leading to out of control inflation. Somehow too many voters didn't understand this simple truth.
January 29, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Unfortunately as we learned, this was not the case. Fascism does not generally produce a prosperous economy and authoritarians frequently call the shots over the central bank, leading to out of control inflation. Somehow too many voters didn't understand this simple truth.
The charts and graph are mine. The writing is my own original writing. It will appear later as part of a book arguing for democracy and against the fascism we currently see. One would have hoped most voters would know a fascist who attempted a coup isn't going to improve your financial situation.
January 29, 2026 at 4:36 PM
The charts and graph are mine. The writing is my own original writing. It will appear later as part of a book arguing for democracy and against the fascism we currently see. One would have hoped most voters would know a fascist who attempted a coup isn't going to improve your financial situation.
Period (Last 6 Months)
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
January 29, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Period (Last 6 Months)
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Metric
BLS (Reported/Revised)
ADP (Private Sector)
Total Gains
Total Jobs Created
~90,000
~24,000
Monthly Avg
Pace of Growth
15,000/mo
4,000/mo
Context
Vs. Historical
Significant Slowdown
Near Stagnation
Comparative Job Growth Table
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Comparative Job Growth Table
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
To highlight the cooling of the labor market we mentioned (the difference between 15,000/month BLS and 4,000/month ADP), so we include this simple comparison:
Further, the United States economy has created only about between 24,000 jobs to 90,000 jobs over the last six months, an average of only about between 4,000 jobs created per month to 15,000 jobs created per month.
.
.
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Further, the United States economy has created only about between 24,000 jobs to 90,000 jobs over the last six months, an average of only about between 4,000 jobs created per month to 15,000 jobs created per month.
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.
Thus, the last most current and credible rate of inflation, 3.0%, was a foreseeable outcome of the choice made in November.
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Thus, the last most current and credible rate of inflation, 3.0%, was a foreseeable outcome of the choice made in November.
It's something else entirely when inflation is driven back up because certain policies are chosen, namely steep tariffs against almost every trading partner we have and mass deportation, that are known to be inflationary.
January 29, 2026 at 4:29 PM
It's something else entirely when inflation is driven back up because certain policies are chosen, namely steep tariffs against almost every trading partner we have and mass deportation, that are known to be inflationary.
Presumably the rate of inflation would have continued to fall had the vice president prevailed.
January 29, 2026 at 4:29 PM
Presumably the rate of inflation would have continued to fall had the vice president prevailed.
It's one thing when inflation is high because of an external exogenous event like a once in a century pandemic and then it is brought down dramatically by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 to June of 2023.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
It's one thing when inflation is high because of an external exogenous event like a once in a century pandemic and then it is brought down dramatically by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 to June of 2023.
On the other hand, the policies advocated for by the alternative candidate were known to be inflationary and many economists warned voters of this prior to the election.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
On the other hand, the policies advocated for by the alternative candidate were known to be inflationary and many economists warned voters of this prior to the election.
Moreover, the rate of inflation fell sharply in the US by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 through June of 2023 not because of the actions of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but because of the action of restoring the supply chain by the administration.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Moreover, the rate of inflation fell sharply in the US by more than 2/3 in one year from June of 2022 through June of 2023 not because of the actions of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but because of the action of restoring the supply chain by the administration.
We have learned that while inflation was high in the United States during 2021 and 2022 especially, this was almost completely caused by the pandemic, not the administration or their oil production policy or the legislation they passed .
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
We have learned that while inflation was high in the United States during 2021 and 2022 especially, this was almost completely caused by the pandemic, not the administration or their oil production policy or the legislation they passed .
Again, replacing them with citizens increases the wages paid which drives prices up. There is already a shortage in housing supply which is already causing an increase in rent and mortgages across the country. Thus, mass deportation is actually an inflationary policy.
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Again, replacing them with citizens increases the wages paid which drives prices up. There is already a shortage in housing supply which is already causing an increase in rent and mortgages across the country. Thus, mass deportation is actually an inflationary policy.
Eliminating this labor supply means reducing crop supply. When we reduce supply, then unless demand falls equivalently, we see an increase in price. Moreover, many undocumented people work in construction, helping to build homes.
January 29, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Eliminating this labor supply means reducing crop supply. When we reduce supply, then unless demand falls equivalently, we see an increase in price. Moreover, many undocumented people work in construction, helping to build homes.
Many undocumented people are part of the food production and crop process. This is especially true of gathering crops. These workers frequently are paid less than citizens who mostly would not do the work at any price because of the physically demanding conditions.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Many undocumented people are part of the food production and crop process. This is especially true of gathering crops. These workers frequently are paid less than citizens who mostly would not do the work at any price because of the physically demanding conditions.
Therefore, the history as well as the theory, suggests that retailers pass through the tariff to consumers by increasing the price. If the good is not essential, then demand is not inelastic with regard to price. This can lead to a reduction in consumer spending.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Therefore, the history as well as the theory, suggests that retailers pass through the tariff to consumers by increasing the price. If the good is not essential, then demand is not inelastic with regard to price. This can lead to a reduction in consumer spending.
This means, the retailer now faces a new and significant expense while having a low profit margin on the good. They generally can't afford to absorb much of the expense themselves because of the low profit margin and the reduction this would cause in their overall profit.
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
This means, the retailer now faces a new and significant expense while having a low profit margin on the good. They generally can't afford to absorb much of the expense themselves because of the low profit margin and the reduction this would cause in their overall profit.