Was happy to present "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space" yesterday on the first day this conference, cehd.uchicago.edu?page_id=8916, co-organized by
Corvinus U. Budapest & University of Chicago.

Thanks to James Heckman for the invitation!

This is in addition to updated results on what we're calling the "Great Reconvergence." Our model predicts a re-distribution of high-earners & college educated back OUT of big coastal city centers. According to latest data it's *already happening*. 7/

Remote workers either want to ski, or go to the opera, or at least have a big house! In low- (Jackson Hole) & high- (Manhattan) -density locations, they seek high amenities in spite of prices. In medium density locations, they just look for lower prices. 6/

NON-remote workers move for job access (CMA)=*shorter commutes*. Controlling for density, they seek out low prices & stay away from high amenities, but always move towards high CMA.

Departure of telecommuters lowers cost of short-commute locations, so non-remotes substitute. 5/

NEW draft analyzes motives for moving. 4 main ones--house price, non-tradable goods price, amenities, & job access (CMA), are all correlated w/density. So we 1st calc. overall corrlations (shown below), then control for density by calculating corr. for ventiles (vent = 20). 4/

A key prediction is that remote-capable workers will move out of city centers to suburbs and smaller cities; while non-remote-capable move towards city centers in response. This visualization shows the NY metro, but the trend is very general. 3/

Main motivation of the paper is to understand how and why the US urban landscape will be reshaped by the post-Covid shift towards remote & hybrid work. As we can see in this graph (data credit WFH Research), it is 3-5X higher than pre-Covid and shows few signs of fading away: 2/

🚨New WP alert🚨

An updated draft of "Spatial Implications of Telecommuting," joint work with Andrii Parkhomenko, is now resubmitted to
@reveconstudies.bsky.social !

mattdelventhal.com/publication/...

In this thread, we'll review the high points of the paper and have a look at what's new. 1/