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Matt Malis

@mattmalis.bsky.social

300 followers 170 following 25 posts

https://mattmalis.github.io/

mattmalis.github.io

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Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · 12d

If you’re gonna use this framing you also need to publish “Trumps fails to deliver on his promise to lock up Hillary Clinton”

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · 12d

I’m losing my fucking mind here

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · 13d

The disincentive against politicizing the DOJ was always political, not legal. Trump v US had all sorts of terrible ramifications but this isn’t one of them

Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 13d

They’re literally giving prosecutors the names of people and organizations, and telling them to go find crimes. It’s clear from the NYT that the directive came from Trump.

This is a direct consequence of Roberts explicitly immunizing weaponization of DOJ in Trump v. US.

Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 13d

We’ve created a system in which there’s no disincentive stopping a shameless, power mad administration from doing this. At worst, they get struck down in court and they get to ruin a lot of people in the process. But civil, criminal liability for this sort of abuse of power are nonstarters.

Reposted by Matt Malis

Texas Tribune @texastribune.org · 20d

Breaking: Texas A&M University President Mark A. Welsh III will resign after more than a week of turmoil sparked by a viral video of a student confronting a professor over gender content in a children’s literature course.

Texas A&M President Mark A. Welsh III to resign after a week of turmoil over viral classroom video

Calls for Welsh’s ousting intensified over his handling of a student’s complaints about gender identity discussions in a children’s literature class.

www.texastribune.org

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jul 24

Feel free to get in touch with any questions (and definitely if you notice any errors!)

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jul 24

I've posted my PhD level Quant I slides, in case they're useful for anyone else:
www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ysvgl...

The material follows texts by Aronow & Miller, Hansen, and @mattblackwell.bsky.social, covering basic probability through OLS, with a brief intro to causal inference

#polisky

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

Here's an overview of the paper's findings.

We're planning to release the Key Officers dataset soon, so keep an eye out for that, and feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about it.

summary of findings

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

Another finding: there seems to be an implicit "quota" system in effect, preventing multiple women from serving in leadership roles in the same embassy.

(As one female FSO describes: "I have never heard anyone complain about too many men in the embassy.")

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

We also find, at all levels, women are assigned to smaller and less important posts.

We find no relationship between host-country gender equality conditions and the gender distribution of US diplomats assigned there.

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

Women face a large disadvantage in promotion to the low-visibility DCM position, but not the higher-visibility CG. Then, among DCMs, women are more likely to reach ambassador (high viz), but no more likely to reach DAS (low viz).

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

But our data allow us to look more closely at individual appointment decisions, focusing on 1997-2017.

We compare appointments to two pairs of positions that are equal in status, but differ in visibility: Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) vs. CG, and Ambassador vs. Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS)

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

Top-line finding: women face substantial penalties in promotion into the middle and upper ranks, but only in low-visibility positions.

Looking only at representation in the aggregate, things seem to be trending in a positive direction:

aggregate trends in women's representation in foreign service positions

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 17

New working paper!

with @calvin-thrall.bsky.social and David Lindsey, we collect the largest existing dataset on diplomatic personnel, and use it to analyze gender disparities in U.S. Foreign Service assignments

draft here: mattmalis.github.io/files/pdf/LM...

🧵 below

abstract: "Representation Without Influence: Evidence from Gender
Disparities in the U.S. Foreign Service"

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 4

Just curious, could you say a bit more? I can see simulations revealing e.g. you’re underpowered or you’re using the wrong SEs, but not obvious to me what sort of “mistake” you would make in the analysis that you wouldn’t also make when simulating the analysis

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jun 1

bluesky is a funny name for the most depressing fucking place on the internet

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · May 29

If the causal chain is X -> Y -> Z, then a regression of Z on X while conditioning on Y is problematic because of collider bias / conditioning on a post-treatment variable. Lots of relevant cites, eg onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · May 9

so proud to live in a country where no one serves more than two months in prison for an op-ed 🥲

Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · May 9

BREAKING: Rumeysa OZTURK must be released from detention, a federal judge ruled Friday, describing her incarceration as an egregious First Amendment violation that could chill the speech of millions.

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Apr 21

It’s hilarious and sort of endearing watching this grown man, whose full time job is just thinking and talking ideas, come to a profound realization about rights and civil liberties that most of us arrived at sometime in high school

Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · Apr 20

Joe Rogan explains to his audience why due process is important and quotes Ben Franklin — "it is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer.”

He argues against shipping people to a prison in El Salvador without trial because we think they’re gang members.

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Apr 17

Glad to see that the what Gorka said in the clip is not quite as bad as @meidastouch.com describes. Exaggerating the danger people face for just speaking out about these issues is good social media fodder but it is counterproductive to mounting an effective opposition.

MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · Apr 17

JUST IN: Deputy Assistant to the President and "Counterterrorism Czar" Sebastian Gorka says anyone advocating for due process for Kilmar Abrego Garcia could be viewed as "aiding and abetting a terrorist" and be federally charged. (h/t Philip Germain)

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Jan 30

Has anyone collected and published data from the president’s daily diaries? Seems like something a lot of Americanists would be interested in but I can’t find anything on it…
#polisky

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Dec 5

But have you considered that this creates disadvantages for certain groups of scholars (people who like to p-hack)

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Dec 3

If “doesn’t” means “doesn’t and never will again”, then sure, I guess, but it seems like any meaningful concept of a “norm” has to entail expectations that survive despite short-term deviations

Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · Dec 2

If the other side doesn't follow the norm, it's not a norm. That is like the DEFINITION of a norm

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Dec 30

Thanks all for the suggestions!

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Dec 29

Polisky: I’m thinking about using one week (total 3hr class time) at the end of my undergrad econometrics class as an intro to ML/AI, with the intended takeaway being “ML/AI is accessible and not scary given what you learned this semester”.

What specific methods/applications would you include?

Matt Malis @mattmalis.bsky.social · Dec 28

Thanks Anton!