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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Aug 19

Thanks Jeff!

Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

For further details, see my 2018 essay in @twqgw.bsky.social. The situation is different now that Israel has already attacked but some of the conclusions may still hold. doi.org/10.1080/0163... 8/8

When Preventive War Threats Work for Nuclear Nonproliferation

Published in The Washington Quarterly (Vol. 41, No. 3, 2018)

doi.org

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

In sum, the following things would increase the odds of success: 1. Belief that the US/Israel knew the location of all relevant nuclear materials and components and could destroy them 2. Iran's ability or willingness to forcefully retaliate is reduced. 3. Iran resolve to get a nuke now goes down 7/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

3. The target’s costs of conflict exceed its determination to proliferate. How costly is US involvement in the war for Iran? Are those costs greater than its desire for a bomb? If yes, the odds of success for a US threat go up. 6/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

2. The threat-maker’s costs of attacking are low relative to the stakes. The stakes for the US are clear. POTUS has consistently said that Iran can't get the bomb. More uncertainty about how Iran might retaliate. If the costs would be massive for the US, the credibility of its threat goes down. 5/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

Maybe the bigger challenge is the uranium that Iran has already enriched and its centrifuge components. Does the US or Israel know for sure where this stuff is and have confidence they can destroy it? If the answer is no, this complicates things for the US. 4/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

I have questions about exactly how far underground Fordow is. For years, public sources said 200-300 feet. Now lots of sources are saying half a mile -- 2,640 feet -- apparently based on comments by IAEA DG Grossi. Big difference b/n 300 and 2,640. 3/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

Condition 1: The threat-maker has the capacity to erode the nuclear program. Here one challenge is the Fordow enrichment plant, buried deep underground. Could the US destroy it in airstrikes using GBU-57 bunker busters? Probably. But I wouldn't say success is guaranteed. 2/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 19

The US may be using threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities to get Iran to the negotiating table. Will it work? I can't credibly answer that. But I can tell you the factors that influence whether this type of threat works. There's 3 conditions for success, based on my research. 1/

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 18

On preventive strikes:

Feaver and Niou 1996 ISQ
Reiter 2006 Nonpro Rev.
Goldstein 2006 book
Ramberg 2006 BAS
Fuhrmann and Kreps JCR 2010 JSS 2011
Whitlark 2021 book
Ludvik 2019
Debs and Monteiro 2017 book
Fuhrmann 2018 TWQ
Bas and Coe 2016 JCR 2018 ISQ
Spaniel 2019 book
Braut-Heggehammer 2016 book

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Reposted by Matt Fuhrmann

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · Jun 18

🧵IR scholars, let's start a thread of what we know that's relevant for a US attack on Iran. Won't change any minds, but might help us teach this crisis and learn new angles. Please add (incl. your own work!), forgive/correct omissions. Nobody can cover everything and it's great to find new work. 1/?

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Jun 17

For context on Israel-Iran, here's a list of cases where countries considered or used military force to stop nuclear proliferation in peacetime. It's from my new @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org book Influence Without Arms. Chapter 6 is devoted to explaining why preventive strikes happen.

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Reposted by Matt Fuhrmann

William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Jun 12

Curious about a potential strike against Iran? I spoke to an expert (@mcfuhrmann.bsky.social) on preventive action targeting nuclear programs last month. Still relevant today! Skip to 24:52.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

Nuclear Ambitions and Preventive War, from Kyiv to Tehran (Feat. Matt Fuhrmann)

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Matt Fuhrmann

William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · May 5

After a long break, Lines on Maps Extra is back! Today, the topic is Ukraine's nuclear pathways, with some bonus thoughts about Iran. I brought in @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social, a professor and expert on nuclear proliferation, to share his thoughts.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

From Kyiv to Tehran: Nuclear Ambitions and Global Tensions (Feat. Matt Fuhrmann)

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

www.youtube.com

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Feb 12

Had a great time visiting Carnegie Mellon’s @cmist-cmu.bsky.social to talk about my new book “Influence Without Arms.” Link to video is below if you’re interested in checking it out.

Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology @cmist-cmu.bsky.social · Feb 12

Prof. Matthew Fuhrmann's book, "Influence Without Arms," explores the surprising power of nuclear latency. Hear his insights in our recent Scientists & Strategists, now available on YouTube!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwVi...

#nuclearlatency #carnegiemellon #security @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social

Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Nuclear Deterrence

YouTube video by CMIST at CMU

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Matt Fuhrmann

Taylor Fravel @fravel.bsky.social · Dec 21

Great opportunity for recent or soon to be college graduates

Security Studies Program MIT @ssp-mit.bsky.social · Dec 19

Recent college graduates who are interested in nuclear security are encouraged to apply to this 1-yr program, with the possibility of a 2nd-year renewal. This fellowship includes MIT benefits.

For more information and to apply: careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/cl...
@mitofficial.bsky.social (2/2)

Nuclear Security Research Support Associate 2

MIT - Nuclear Security Research Support Associate 2 - Cambridge MA 02139

careers.peopleclick.com

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 25

New job alert. The Council on Foreign Relations is searching for a Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow: careers-cfr.icims.com/jobs/2615/st...

Council on Foreign RelationsLogoSearchSearchPlayPlayLogo

careers-cfr.icims.com

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

Thanks, Maria. Your help with Egyptian sources was super helpful, and you'll see that cited in Chapter 2!

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

Thanks, Chris!

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

I hope you'll check it out! It's the culmination of nearly a decade of work. There were times I thought I'd never get to the end. Excited to now share this!

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

Can countries gain leverage over adversaries and allies with nuclear technology even if they don't have assembled bombs? Why does seeking nuclear technology sometimes invite military attacks? When do we see nuclear arms races?

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

The book helps answer some big questions: Why have only 10 countries built nuclear weapons? Would the world be safer and more secure if all nuclear powers disarmed? Will Iran or South Korea build nuclear weapons in the coming months/years?

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Nov 13

It's publication week! Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Deterrence is now available: www.cambridge.org/9781108824071. The book examines the role of nuclear technology in international relations.

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Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Sep 21

Great, thanks!

Matt Fuhrmann @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social · Sep 20

Can you please add me to polisky?