banner
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman
@mijrahman.bsky.social
36K followers 270 following 1.4K posts
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth https://www.eurasiagroup.net
www.eurasiagroup.net
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Pinned
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Nov 13
I've put together a starter pack for smart voices on EU politics

I learned a lot from these accounts on Twitter

There are gaps - either because I've missed people or because they're not yet on BlueSky, so pls send suggestions and I'll amend periodically

go.bsky.app/2QjVmxC
64 220 970
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 22h
On 🇫🇷: I think tonight we are looking at an extension of the Lecornu process (not a deal or a dissolution). If there was to be a decision tonight, Macron would speak not Lecornu. He will say, I predict cautiously, that he is making progress & has been given more time by Macron
1 3 14
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 3d
Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..
5 4 44
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
eurasiagroup.net
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 3d
An age-old French nightmare — that of growing German military might — is resurfacing in a new form.

As Berlin inevitably becomes the EU’s dominant military power, our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social explains how strategic autonomy is now in Germany’s hands:

@politico.eu
European strategic autonomy is in German hands
As Berlin inevitably becomes the EU's dominant military power, its billions could either build or blur Macron's vision of European defense.
www.politico.eu
3 6 16
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 22d
‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine
6 100 430
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 22d
‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine
6 100 430
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
eddavey.libdems.org.uk
Ed Davey @eddavey.libdems.org.uk · 24d
I've written to Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, urging them to join me in condemning Elon Musk's dangerous remarks inciting violence yesterday.

As leaders, we must stand together and make clear Musk will face serious consequences for these actions.
Letter from Ed Davey to Keir Starmer condemning Elon Musk for inciting violence and urging unity to defend democracy.
350 1.9K 7K
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 29d
Can he succeed and can he survive? He is a listener and an energetic networker. If anyone can find a way forward it may be him but his problems will be immense
1 22
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 29d
🇫🇷‼️ Sebastien Lecornu, the new French PM, is a confidante of President Macron, a centre right politician from Normandy who joined Macron in 2017 and has been in every government since then.
3 5 41
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 8
‼️🇫🇷 The French PM Francois Bayrou lost a parliamentary confidence vote by a landslide tonight - 364 to 194. 16 members of his own coalition voted against him or abstained
2 11 29
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
Her fate depends on findings of PM’s adviser on ministerial standards. If she breached ministerial code, she’ll have to go. May hinge on whether she took proper advice from tax lawyer on stamp duty rather than informal advice eg from solicitor (not good enough). 60-40 she stays - she is in danger
4 2 13
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
Couldnt make this stuff up

www.ft.com/content/064f...
UK deputy prime minister Angela Rayner admits underpaying tax
Labour politician refers herself to government’s ethics adviser over £800,000 Hove flat
www.ft.com
2 7 24
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
The Far Right would remain unchanged on around 31-33% and both the splintered Left and the Centre Right would advance slightly. Although no second round seat totals are projected, the figures suggest that the Assembly would remain split three ways with no obvious governing majority ENDS
1 11
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
In an Ifop poll (see screenshot), the governing Centre alliance is given only 15% of the vote in a new election. An Elabe poll at the weekend gave them 14% - compared to 23% in the indecisive snap election last June 5/
2 7
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
Two other polls in recent days will confirm Macron’s determination not to call another parliamentary election to try to resolve the budget impasse. Both polls suggest that Macron’s Centre would lose seats, the Far Right would gain but France would still be left without a parliamentary majority 4/
1 4
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
The Prime Minister, François Bayrou, is even less popular than Macron – down to 14% in the Figaro barometer. He is expected to lose a confidence vote in the National Assembly on Monday after proposing a harsh 2026 outline budget to correct France’s 5.4% of GDP deficit 3/
1 4
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
The Figaro Magazine barometer suggests that Macron is now the second least popular President of the Fifth Republic (since 1958) but has not descended to the single figures once reached by his predecessor, François Hollande 2/
1 5
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Sep 3
A flurry of opinion polls makes bleak reading for President Emmanuel Macron before the almost certain removal of his fourth Prime Minister in 21 months next Monday. Macron’s approval rate fell to a new low of 15% in one survey today 1/

www.lefigaro.fr/politique/so...
Sondage : Emmanuel Macron encore plus impopulaire que pendant la crise des gilets jaunes
BAROMÈTRE FIGARO MAGAZINE - La cote de confiance du chef de l’État chute de six points pour atteindre son plus bas niveau depuis 2017 : 15 % !
www.lefigaro.fr
3 6 25
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 28
Exceptional piece by the exceptional @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/8a14...
Trump is oblivious to Europe’s history
The US president’s indifference to the past blinds him to Russia’s intentions in Ukraine
www.ft.com
7 22 73
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 28
“Several leading executives who publicly supported Labour in the run-up to the July 4 poll said they were “horrified” by its record in office so far, criticising “poor political decisions” and a “lack of ability”.“

www.ft.com/content/b103...
Why Labour has to woo business all over again
Executives who had warmed up to Sir Keir Starmer’s party now feel cold-shouldered
www.ft.com
5 9 34
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/
4 18 83
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
Both Marine Le Pen’s Far Right and harder parts of the Left immediately announced that they would refuse to support Bayrou. His survival will therefore depend on winning the support of the Socialists and the more moderate Left.

ENDS
1 1 18
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
Bayrou said he wanted to challenge his opponents on the Far Right & Left to confront the “gravity of the situation” & accept that the French state and the French nation” must make painful budgetary choices to preserve their autonomy. The details of budget cuts and taxes could come later, he said 4/
1 14
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
In a risky exercise in political ju-jitsu, Bayrou decided instead to ask President Macron to call a special early session of the National Assembly from 8 September. He will seek a vote of confidence in an assembly where his centre and centre-right coalition is 70 votes short of a majority 3/
1 14
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
Bayrou had been expected to face a series of censure motions, starting on 22 September as he seeks approval for €44bn in cuts and higher taxes – and the abolition of two bank holidays - to reduce France’s exploding budget deficit next year 2/
1 10
mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · Aug 25
‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/
4 18 83