Mujtaba Rahman
@mijrahman.bsky.social
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth
https://www.eurasiagroup.net
https://www.eurasiagroup.net
Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..
October 6, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..
In an Ifop poll (see screenshot), the governing Centre alliance is given only 15% of the vote in a new election. An Elabe poll at the weekend gave them 14% - compared to 23% in the indecisive snap election last June 5/
September 3, 2025 at 1:12 PM
In an Ifop poll (see screenshot), the governing Centre alliance is given only 15% of the vote in a new election. An Elabe poll at the weekend gave them 14% - compared to 23% in the indecisive snap election last June 5/
Is the dial about to shift?
August 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Is the dial about to shift?
Janan Ganesh in the FT -excellent as usual
“Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”
“Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”
August 20, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Janan Ganesh in the FT -excellent as usual
“Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”
“Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”
Madness. Thankfully Olivier doesn't run the Commission. It would have been insane for the EU to retaliate against the US given EU's geopolitical vulnerabilities. What Olivier describes as "stormy waters" could have meant Ukraine being thrown under the bus. Even if a 1% risk, would it be worth it? 1/
July 28, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Madness. Thankfully Olivier doesn't run the Commission. It would have been insane for the EU to retaliate against the US given EU's geopolitical vulnerabilities. What Olivier describes as "stormy waters" could have meant Ukraine being thrown under the bus. Even if a 1% risk, would it be worth it? 1/
End of a beautiful friendship? Trump's decision to attack on Macron while the middle east teeters on the brink is probably nothing much to do with Israel or Iran. It could be in response to Macron's "hands off" comments on his visit to Greenland on Sunday
June 17, 2025 at 6:23 AM
End of a beautiful friendship? Trump's decision to attack on Macron while the middle east teeters on the brink is probably nothing much to do with Israel or Iran. It could be in response to Macron's "hands off" comments on his visit to Greenland on Sunday
Spent a very productive 2 days in Prague, discussing the current state of transatlantic relations, the outlook for US/EU trade negotiations and the Ukraine war, the end-June NATO summit and European Council, and what Europe can do to bolster its own competitiveness #GLOBSEC2025
June 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Spent a very productive 2 days in Prague, discussing the current state of transatlantic relations, the outlook for US/EU trade negotiations and the Ukraine war, the end-June NATO summit and European Council, and what Europe can do to bolster its own competitiveness #GLOBSEC2025
Exceptional essay by Mark Mazower, putting US-EU relations into their historical context and analysing what may come next
June 1, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Exceptional essay by Mark Mazower, putting US-EU relations into their historical context and analysing what may come next
Hard to see the EU and US avoiding an escalatory (trade) cycle at this point, if Trump follows through on his threats on 1 June
May 23, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Hard to see the EU and US avoiding an escalatory (trade) cycle at this point, if Trump follows through on his threats on 1 June
So. No longer standing behind the need for a ceasefire. This reads as more pressure on Ukraine. Fragile alignment that had emerged between the US and Europeans no longer does. US position (is there such a thing?) changing by the day
May 11, 2025 at 6:06 PM
So. No longer standing behind the need for a ceasefire. This reads as more pressure on Ukraine. Fragile alignment that had emerged between the US and Europeans no longer does. US position (is there such a thing?) changing by the day
From Tusk this evening. So many good things to say about this photograph!
May 9, 2025 at 10:27 PM
From Tusk this evening. So many good things to say about this photograph!
We're all on trade. Then this..
May 8, 2025 at 9:25 PM
We're all on trade. Then this..
A reminder that this Administration's allies in the EU are the AfD, Orban, Fico, Kickl, Le Pen et al
May 3, 2025 at 9:08 AM
A reminder that this Administration's allies in the EU are the AfD, Orban, Fico, Kickl, Le Pen et al
Spent an excellent & productive 3 days in DC - talking to senior EU & US officials about the outlook for the transatlantic alliance, Trump's tariffs, and the Ukraine war. Particularly enjoyed speaking with German finance minister Jörg Kukies & Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe
April 27, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Spent an excellent & productive 3 days in DC - talking to senior EU & US officials about the outlook for the transatlantic alliance, Trump's tariffs, and the Ukraine war. Particularly enjoyed speaking with German finance minister Jörg Kukies & Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe
Nothing very new in what Macron says here but the mood music around the papal funeral diplomacy today is upbeat
April 26, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Nothing very new in what Macron says here but the mood music around the papal funeral diplomacy today is upbeat
Some clearly important diplomacy happening in Rome/Vatican City this morning
April 26, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Some clearly important diplomacy happening in Rome/Vatican City this morning
These are *all* things the US could do unilaterally: recognition of territories, commitment not to admit Ukraine to NATO, sanctions lifting, and economic normalisation. Zelensky isn't the barrier. Huge implications for Europe if US moves this forward unilaterally
April 23, 2025 at 7:54 PM
These are *all* things the US could do unilaterally: recognition of territories, commitment not to admit Ukraine to NATO, sanctions lifting, and economic normalisation. Zelensky isn't the barrier. Huge implications for Europe if US moves this forward unilaterally
Zelensky isn't going to agree to this
We'll know if the US is bluffing by the end of the day
We'll know if the US is bluffing by the end of the day
April 23, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Zelensky isn't going to agree to this
We'll know if the US is bluffing by the end of the day
We'll know if the US is bluffing by the end of the day
Russia invaded Ukraine.
April 15, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Russia invaded Ukraine.
Unsurprising
🇪🇺🇺🇸
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April 13, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Unsurprising
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US tariff policy is a Truss moment where misguided policy and terrible communication has set off a market correction which has its own dynamic. In UK, what followed was a limited CB intervention, a complete fiscal policy reversal and defenestration of the CX and PM. Not obvious what happens in US
April 9, 2025 at 8:07 AM
US tariff policy is a Truss moment where misguided policy and terrible communication has set off a market correction which has its own dynamic. In UK, what followed was a limited CB intervention, a complete fiscal policy reversal and defenestration of the CX and PM. Not obvious what happens in US
The original Trolls were figures in Scandinavian, including Danish, mythology. How appropriate that France should “troll” Donald Trump by signing a “strategic partnership” with Copenhagen which “reaffirms our commitment to DK’s territorial intregrity and sovereignty”. 1/
April 9, 2025 at 7:41 AM
The original Trolls were figures in Scandinavian, including Danish, mythology. How appropriate that France should “troll” Donald Trump by signing a “strategic partnership” with Copenhagen which “reaffirms our commitment to DK’s territorial intregrity and sovereignty”. 1/
71% of Brits favour UKG retaliation against Trump's tariffs, according to YouGov
The longer a UK/US trade deal takes to agree and 10% tariffs remain, while the EU retaliates, the harder Starmer's US/EU balancing act becomes
The longer a UK/US trade deal takes to agree and 10% tariffs remain, while the EU retaliates, the harder Starmer's US/EU balancing act becomes
April 4, 2025 at 8:23 AM
71% of Brits favour UKG retaliation against Trump's tariffs, according to YouGov
The longer a UK/US trade deal takes to agree and 10% tariffs remain, while the EU retaliates, the harder Starmer's US/EU balancing act becomes
The longer a UK/US trade deal takes to agree and 10% tariffs remain, while the EU retaliates, the harder Starmer's US/EU balancing act becomes
Not just Americans. Most Europeans too
April 2, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Not just Americans. Most Europeans too