Martin Modrák
Martin Modrák
@modrakm.bsky.social
Biostatistics/bioinformatics at Charles University, 2nd faculty of Medicine. Bayesian in practice, but not a fan of Bayesian epistemology. Main on fedi: https://bayes.club/@modrak_m
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
We need to frame our research as associational otherwise we loose plausible deniability when the MDs reading it will inevitably interpret it causally....
February 6, 2026 at 2:02 PM
A shameless plug of the SBC R package that tries to make the development cost of doing SBC as low as possible hyunjimoon.github.io/SBC/
Simulation Based Calibration for Bayesian models
SBC helps perform Simulation Based Calibration on Bayesian models. SBC lets you check for bugs in your model code and/or algorithm that fits the model. SBC focuses on models built with Stan <https://m...
hyunjimoon.github.io
February 4, 2026 at 4:44 PM
No worries, just thought the recommendations in the paper look a bit too bleak. Also, wouldn't winner’s curse be also amenable to modelling as truncation?
February 3, 2026 at 7:50 AM
First, love this. Second, shouldn't there be a modelling solution to this that lets you keep the first study in (and handle sign alignment)? E.g. treating the first study as folded normal. Might help people who fear "loosing power" by removing the study...
February 3, 2026 at 5:31 AM
Reposted by Martin Modrák
As far as I'm aware, this is the first time anyone has shown that innocuous data-dependent reporting practices can bias meta-analyses (please let know if I'm wrong!), so we should be very careful interpreting big metascientific meta-analyses going forward. 9/x
February 2, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Another possible reason for this could be different versions of BLAS/LAPACK across machines (was once bitten by this). sessionInfo() reports this so easy to check
February 2, 2026 at 4:53 AM
IMHO the underlying problem is that the standard (simpler) formulation of multinomial logistic is sensitive to category orderings. There are ways to reformulate the model to make the ordering irrelevant. I tried to give some links to lit in an answer... discourse.mc-stan.org/t/problem-in...
January 30, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Very, very, slight preference for positive.
January 8, 2026 at 6:37 AM
Czechia has this.
January 2, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Reposted by Martin Modrák
We have weirdly benefitted from the fact that all the 2010s data science boom Medium posts littering the training corpus were so consistently terrible.
December 18, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Violin plots?
December 17, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Interpeting individual coefficients is definitely a problem in such models, but I think the interpretation challenge can be overcome with things like estimated marginal means/g-computation so I don't think that's necessarily an argument against complex models per se.
December 12, 2025 at 2:06 PM