Mostafa Bushehri
@mostafab.bsky.social
Interested in Macro | Columbia alum
Pinned
Persian Gulf’s AI-ization: Playing Both Sides in a Bipolar Tech World
Guest Article by Mostafa BushehriCaught between Silicon Valley and Shenzhen, the Gulf is betting its oil fortune on becoming the world’s next AI super-node. “We are in the age of a huge industrial …
sinosoutheastinitiative.com
My latest piece on a side of the Middle East that’s often overlooked: Geoeconomics and tech.
Persian Gulf’s AI-ization: Playing Both Sides in a Bipolar Tech World
sinosoutheastinitiative.com/2025/07/02/p...
Persian Gulf’s AI-ization: Playing Both Sides in a Bipolar Tech World
sinosoutheastinitiative.com/2025/07/02/p...
Happy #Thanksgiving ! The most wonderful time of the year is beginning.
November 27, 2025 at 5:40 AM
Happy #Thanksgiving ! The most wonderful time of the year is beginning.
Equity returns over the past five years have been the Magnificent Seven versus everyone else. But this gap can’t persist forever.
November 8, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Equity returns over the past five years have been the Magnificent Seven versus everyone else. But this gap can’t persist forever.
Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms the shortlist for the next Fed Chair:
- Christopher Waller
- Michelle Bowman
- Kevin Warsh
- Kevin Hassett
- Rick Rieder
Decision expected by year end. 👀 #Fed
- Christopher Waller
- Michelle Bowman
- Kevin Warsh
- Kevin Hassett
- Rick Rieder
Decision expected by year end. 👀 #Fed
Suggested bet on Kalshi/Polymarket: Who will succeed Powell as Fed Chair? Waller, Bowman, or someone else? 👀
Fed Governors Waller, Bowman Dissented in Favor of Rate Cut. First time for two governors to dissent since 1993!
October 27, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms the shortlist for the next Fed Chair:
- Christopher Waller
- Michelle Bowman
- Kevin Warsh
- Kevin Hassett
- Rick Rieder
Decision expected by year end. 👀 #Fed
- Christopher Waller
- Michelle Bowman
- Kevin Warsh
- Kevin Hassett
- Rick Rieder
Decision expected by year end. 👀 #Fed
The US dominates global data center buildout. The US alone has 1.7× more data centers than all other major countries combined.
October 26, 2025 at 6:08 PM
The US dominates global data center buildout. The US alone has 1.7× more data centers than all other major countries combined.
One of the best podcasts I’ve listened to (so good I played it twice!) Insightful conversation between @paul_podolsky and Alexei Andreev on Autonomous Vehicles and the future of cars as we know them.
substack.com/@paulpodolsk...
substack.com/@paulpodolsk...
Cars Are Going the Way of Typewriters
While journalists breathlessly report on a plane crash or a train derailment, they are silent on a more salient fact: about 1.2 million people will die this year in car crashes.
substack.com
October 12, 2025 at 12:54 AM
One of the best podcasts I’ve listened to (so good I played it twice!) Insightful conversation between @paul_podolsky and Alexei Andreev on Autonomous Vehicles and the future of cars as we know them.
substack.com/@paulpodolsk...
substack.com/@paulpodolsk...
Historically, markets have mostly shrugged off US government shutdowns. The real risk this time is delayed economic data, like the jobs report, that the Fed relies on for monetary decisions.
October 11, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Historically, markets have mostly shrugged off US government shutdowns. The real risk this time is delayed economic data, like the jobs report, that the Fed relies on for monetary decisions.
China’s new restrictions on rare earths mark one of the toughest export controls ever. The trend is clear; the winners will be companies driving reshoring of critical minerals.
China accounts for over 80% of global rare earth mineral production. Its latest export controls could impact a wide range of industries, including automotive and defense.
October 10, 2025 at 6:26 PM
China’s new restrictions on rare earths mark one of the toughest export controls ever. The trend is clear; the winners will be companies driving reshoring of critical minerals.
Soybeans will be a key topic in US-China talks in the weeks ahead.
October 1, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Soybeans will be a key topic in US-China talks in the weeks ahead.
By this time last year, China had bought ~40% of US soybean exports. This year? Zero.
Midwest farmers are losing share fast to South American suppliers.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
Midwest farmers are losing share fast to South American suppliers.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
China is turning up its nose at American soyabeans
Midwestern farmers want their $12bn market back
www.economist.com
September 26, 2025 at 10:57 PM
By this time last year, China had bought ~40% of US soybean exports. This year? Zero.
Midwest farmers are losing share fast to South American suppliers.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
Midwest farmers are losing share fast to South American suppliers.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
Looks like the current US administration is preparing to support its friend in Argentina. Let’s see if that’s enough to stabilize Mileinomics!
September 22, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Looks like the current US administration is preparing to support its friend in Argentina. Let’s see if that’s enough to stabilize Mileinomics!
The Fed went with a 25 bps cut today. Based on the distribution of participants’ views for the appropriate FFR midpoint in 2025, it looks like we’re likely to see at least one more 25 bps cut this year (assuming no unexpected shocks!).
September 17, 2025 at 9:52 PM
The Fed went with a 25 bps cut today. Based on the distribution of participants’ views for the appropriate FFR midpoint in 2025, it looks like we’re likely to see at least one more 25 bps cut this year (assuming no unexpected shocks!).
assive investment through ETFs and mutual funds has grown significantly over the past decade. The consequences include reduced market efficiency, weaker price discovery, and higher volatility. These conditions should create opportunities for alpha. 1/2
September 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
assive investment through ETFs and mutual funds has grown significantly over the past decade. The consequences include reduced market efficiency, weaker price discovery, and higher volatility. These conditions should create opportunities for alpha. 1/2
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged again this month (-4.8% M-M and -21% Y-Y).
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
September 12, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged again this month (-4.8% M-M and -21% Y-Y).
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Today’s CPI makes a 25 bps cut look more likely. The real question is whether the Fed stick with that, or go 50 bps to get ahead of a recession instead of waiting for it?
Final demand PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (vs. +0.3% expected).
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
September 11, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Today’s CPI makes a 25 bps cut look more likely. The real question is whether the Fed stick with that, or go 50 bps to get ahead of a recession instead of waiting for it?
Final demand PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (vs. +0.3% expected).
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
September 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Final demand PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (vs. +0.3% expected).
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Markets are euphoric on AI, and billions are pouring into private deals and infrastructure. The numbers suggest this party won’t last forever, but until then the dancing goes on!
September 8, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Markets are euphoric on AI, and billions are pouring into private deals and infrastructure. The numbers suggest this party won’t last forever, but until then the dancing goes on!
T-bills account for over 20% of all marketable Treasury debt. When the Fed cuts, short-term yields tend to follow.
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
August 24, 2025 at 2:18 PM
T-bills account for over 20% of all marketable Treasury debt. When the Fed cuts, short-term yields tend to follow.
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
How is AI showing up in GDP data?
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
August 18, 2025 at 4:24 PM
How is AI showing up in GDP data?
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 hit its highest level since the dot-com bubble.
August 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 hit its highest level since the dot-com bubble.
Since January, Ivy League schools have issued over $1.7B in debt, the most since 2020. Despite federal pushback, the debt market is lending at rates comparable to “triple A” US companies like Johnson & Johnson.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Ivy League universities are on a debt binge
The borrowers, including Harvard, Princeton and Yale, benefit from a “prestige premium”
www.economist.com
August 15, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Since January, Ivy League schools have issued over $1.7B in debt, the most since 2020. Despite federal pushback, the debt market is lending at rates comparable to “triple A” US companies like Johnson & Johnson.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Aramco inks $11B leaseback deal for Jafurah gas facilities with a BlackRock's GIP-led consortium, part of its plan to boost gas production 60% by 2030.
www.aramco.com/en/news-medi...
www.aramco.com/en/news-medi...
Jafurah midstream deal
Transaction to support optimization of Aramco’s assets, reflecting positive outlook for gas demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
www.aramco.com
August 14, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Aramco inks $11B leaseback deal for Jafurah gas facilities with a BlackRock's GIP-led consortium, part of its plan to boost gas production 60% by 2030.
www.aramco.com/en/news-medi...
www.aramco.com/en/news-medi...
Private credit is stepping into the gap left by the long decline in the number of banks and tighter post-GFC regulations.
August 14, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Private credit is stepping into the gap left by the long decline in the number of banks and tighter post-GFC regulations.
The US remains the most dynamic economy in the world.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
August 9, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The US remains the most dynamic economy in the world.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
A symbolic place to meet!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
August 8, 2025 at 10:52 PM
A symbolic place to meet!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!