Mostafa Bushehri
@mostafab.bsky.social
Interested in Macro | Columbia alum
Equity returns over the past five years have been the Magnificent Seven versus everyone else. But this gap can’t persist forever.
November 8, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Equity returns over the past five years have been the Magnificent Seven versus everyone else. But this gap can’t persist forever.
The US dominates global data center buildout. The US alone has 1.7× more data centers than all other major countries combined.
October 26, 2025 at 6:08 PM
The US dominates global data center buildout. The US alone has 1.7× more data centers than all other major countries combined.
Historically, markets have mostly shrugged off US government shutdowns. The real risk this time is delayed economic data, like the jobs report, that the Fed relies on for monetary decisions.
October 11, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Historically, markets have mostly shrugged off US government shutdowns. The real risk this time is delayed economic data, like the jobs report, that the Fed relies on for monetary decisions.
Soybeans will be a key topic in US-China talks in the weeks ahead.
October 1, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Soybeans will be a key topic in US-China talks in the weeks ahead.
Looks like the current US administration is preparing to support its friend in Argentina. Let’s see if that’s enough to stabilize Mileinomics!
September 22, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Looks like the current US administration is preparing to support its friend in Argentina. Let’s see if that’s enough to stabilize Mileinomics!
The Fed went with a 25 bps cut today. Based on the distribution of participants’ views for the appropriate FFR midpoint in 2025, it looks like we’re likely to see at least one more 25 bps cut this year (assuming no unexpected shocks!).
September 17, 2025 at 9:52 PM
The Fed went with a 25 bps cut today. Based on the distribution of participants’ views for the appropriate FFR midpoint in 2025, it looks like we’re likely to see at least one more 25 bps cut this year (assuming no unexpected shocks!).
But the data says otherwise. Active funds, on average, continue to lag their benchmarks despite these shifts. 2/2
September 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
But the data says otherwise. Active funds, on average, continue to lag their benchmarks despite these shifts. 2/2
assive investment through ETFs and mutual funds has grown significantly over the past decade. The consequences include reduced market efficiency, weaker price discovery, and higher volatility. These conditions should create opportunities for alpha. 1/2
September 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
assive investment through ETFs and mutual funds has grown significantly over the past decade. The consequences include reduced market efficiency, weaker price discovery, and higher volatility. These conditions should create opportunities for alpha. 1/2
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged again this month (-4.8% M-M and -21% Y-Y).
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
September 12, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged again this month (-4.8% M-M and -21% Y-Y).
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Consumers see rising risks for business conditions, the labor market, and inflation.
Final demand PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (vs. +0.3% expected).
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
September 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Final demand PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (vs. +0.3% expected).
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Annually, headline PPI rose 2.6% YoY (below the 3.3% estimate).
A #Fed cut next week now looks nearly certain. Question is: 25 bps or 50 bps?
Markets are euphoric on AI, and billions are pouring into private deals and infrastructure. The numbers suggest this party won’t last forever, but until then the dancing goes on!
September 8, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Markets are euphoric on AI, and billions are pouring into private deals and infrastructure. The numbers suggest this party won’t last forever, but until then the dancing goes on!
T-bills account for over 20% of all marketable Treasury debt. When the Fed cuts, short-term yields tend to follow.
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
August 24, 2025 at 2:18 PM
T-bills account for over 20% of all marketable Treasury debt. When the Fed cuts, short-term yields tend to follow.
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
Behind the push to cut isn’t just growth worries, it’s also about paying less interest on government debt (more than $39 trillion in gross national debt).
How is AI showing up in GDP data?
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
August 18, 2025 at 4:24 PM
How is AI showing up in GDP data?
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Private consumption usually drives growth, but in 2025 the story flipped. So far this year, data center construction has contributed as much to GDP growth as consumer spending.
Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 hit its highest level since the dot-com bubble.
August 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 hit its highest level since the dot-com bubble.
Private credit is stepping into the gap left by the long decline in the number of banks and tighter post-GFC regulations.
August 14, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Private credit is stepping into the gap left by the long decline in the number of banks and tighter post-GFC regulations.
The US remains the most dynamic economy in the world.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
August 9, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The US remains the most dynamic economy in the world.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
Long-term optimism is strong, and new business application has surged since the November 2024 election.
A symbolic place to meet!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
August 8, 2025 at 10:52 PM
A symbolic place to meet!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
Alaska was purchased from Russia in the 1860s for about $7.2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s only around $120 million!
The chart shows the extreme AI concentration in the market today. Nvidia #NVDA now has the biggest weight in the S&P 500 of any individual stock since the data began in 1981.
August 8, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The chart shows the extreme AI concentration in the market today. Nvidia #NVDA now has the biggest weight in the S&P 500 of any individual stock since the data began in 1981.
This is why Modi calls Putin a “friend.”
Since the Ukraine war, sanctioned Russian crude & condensate have flowed to India, while Europe is effectively buying Russian oil via Indian intermediaries. #oott
Since the Ukraine war, sanctioned Russian crude & condensate have flowed to India, while Europe is effectively buying Russian oil via Indian intermediaries. #oott
August 8, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is why Modi calls Putin a “friend.”
Since the Ukraine war, sanctioned Russian crude & condensate have flowed to India, while Europe is effectively buying Russian oil via Indian intermediaries. #oott
Since the Ukraine war, sanctioned Russian crude & condensate have flowed to India, while Europe is effectively buying Russian oil via Indian intermediaries. #oott
Fossil fuels will supply more than 50% of data center power until 2030.
August 7, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Fossil fuels will supply more than 50% of data center power until 2030.
The previous admin turned a blind eye to India’s stance on the Ukraine war, all in the name of “China containment.” This one isn’t.
US-India ties have long been a one-way street. Time for a reset!
US-India ties have long been a one-way street. Time for a reset!
August 4, 2025 at 3:23 PM
The previous admin turned a blind eye to India’s stance on the Ukraine war, all in the name of “China containment.” This one isn’t.
US-India ties have long been a one-way street. Time for a reset!
US-India ties have long been a one-way street. Time for a reset!
If core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) hasn’t hit the 2% target since 2021, maybe it’s not just a Fed problem. Without fiscal discipline, monetary policy alone might not be enough, or maybe the 2% target is gone for good!
July 31, 2025 at 9:04 PM
If core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) hasn’t hit the 2% target since 2021, maybe it’s not just a Fed problem. Without fiscal discipline, monetary policy alone might not be enough, or maybe the 2% target is gone for good!
Q2 2025 GDP came in stronger than expected at 3% annualized. Business import panic has eased, consumption remains solid, and contributions from state/local governments and U.S. defense have picked up.
July 30, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Q2 2025 GDP came in stronger than expected at 3% annualized. Business import panic has eased, consumption remains solid, and contributions from state/local governments and U.S. defense have picked up.
