Magic Data Science
@mtgds.bsky.social
Doing math with Magic; doing Magic with math.
(Chromatic Lantern; Julie Dillon)
(Chromatic Lantern; Julie Dillon)
~ ≠ ≈
I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈.
Also, some wild keming choices here
I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈.
Also, some wild keming choices here
February 10, 2026 at 4:19 PM
~ ≠ ≈
I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈.
Also, some wild keming choices here
I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈.
Also, some wild keming choices here
Here is where ECL lands on the #PrinceVPauper ternary plot: decidedly _not_ Pauper. The rares and uncommons are relatively stronger than the commons, to a greater extent than pretty much any recent set.
At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!
At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!
February 10, 2026 at 12:21 AM
Here is where ECL lands on the #PrinceVPauper ternary plot: decidedly _not_ Pauper. The rares and uncommons are relatively stronger than the commons, to a greater extent than pretty much any recent set.
At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!
At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!
5) The least Open cards -- the ones that are most narrowly drafted/played -- are mostly finely-targeted Typal synergy cards, many of which explicitly say the name of a creature type. This is very Bloomburresque.
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
5) The least Open cards -- the ones that are most narrowly drafted/played -- are mostly finely-targeted Typal synergy cards, many of which explicitly say the name of a creature type. This is very Bloomburresque.
4) The most "Open" mono-color cards are, as usual, the strong removal cards, which are (a) desirable and (b) not usually synergy-reliant
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
4) The most "Open" mono-color cards are, as usual, the strong removal cards, which are (a) desirable and (b) not usually synergy-reliant
3) Contrast those with the Typal hybrid "signposts", which are drafted and played much more like gold cards than hybrid. In the graph ^^^^, you can see the distinction between these two groups of hybrid commons -- the gluey Changelings are way at the top of the distribution.
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
3) Contrast those with the Typal hybrid "signposts", which are drafted and played much more like gold cards than hybrid. In the graph ^^^^, you can see the distinction between these two groups of hybrid commons -- the gluey Changelings are way at the top of the distribution.
2) The gluey hybrid Changelings are, as you might expect, pretty high-Openness. The "theoretical maximum" for these cards is a 7, which would be the 7 color-touching pairs playing the card equally frequently, and several of these are close, at 6+
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
2) The gluey hybrid Changelings are, as you might expect, pretty high-Openness. The "theoretical maximum" for these cards is a 7, which would be the 7 color-touching pairs playing the card equally frequently, and several of these are close, at 6+
...as the graph shows, it also has the wide/low distribution characteristic of a fairly on-rails format.
Here are some observations.
1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.
Here are some observations.
1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
...as the graph shows, it also has the wide/low distribution characteristic of a fairly on-rails format.
Here are some observations.
1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.
Here are some observations.
1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.
Some time ago, I came up with a method of measuring the "openness" of a card in Limited, which can summarize up to describing a particular format.
One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...
One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...
February 6, 2026 at 12:50 AM
Some time ago, I came up with a method of measuring the "openness" of a card in Limited, which can summarize up to describing a particular format.
One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...
One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...
@cubecobra.com Excited about the 1.5 update! Especially Scryfall drag'n'drop.
Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly?
Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?
Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly?
Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?
February 2, 2026 at 2:38 PM
@cubecobra.com Excited about the 1.5 update! Especially Scryfall drag'n'drop.
Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly?
Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?
Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly?
Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?
Clearly Alara, and specifically, Bant
January 29, 2026 at 6:36 PM
Clearly Alara, and specifically, Bant
Here is a plot of GIHWR by rank within color, for commons and uncommons in ECL, per @17lands.bsky.social
Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.
Among uncommons, ...
Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.
Among uncommons, ...
January 28, 2026 at 11:22 PM
Here is a plot of GIHWR by rank within color, for commons and uncommons in ECL, per @17lands.bsky.social
Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.
Among uncommons, ...
Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.
Among uncommons, ...
I'm one of these, @maro254.bsky.social
Watched 20 years, 20 lessons
Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that
Listened to every DtW at least once
Had a million ideas for models to build
Spent a year working on those intermittently
Started MTGDS.
Watched 20 years, 20 lessons
Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that
Listened to every DtW at least once
Had a million ideas for models to build
Spent a year working on those intermittently
Started MTGDS.
January 28, 2026 at 4:23 PM
I'm one of these, @maro254.bsky.social
Watched 20 years, 20 lessons
Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that
Listened to every DtW at least once
Had a million ideas for models to build
Spent a year working on those intermittently
Started MTGDS.
Watched 20 years, 20 lessons
Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that
Listened to every DtW at least once
Had a million ideas for models to build
Spent a year working on those intermittently
Started MTGDS.
They made a card just for me! 🥰
🫶 WotC
🫶 WotC
January 27, 2026 at 5:29 PM
They made a card just for me! 🥰
🫶 WotC
🫶 WotC
... the creatures were in FIN. FIN > MOM > EMN > IKO are the four sets with the highest mean P+T.)
January 24, 2026 at 8:17 PM
... the creatures were in FIN. FIN > MOM > EMN > IKO are the four sets with the highest mean P+T.)
This holds up if you look at all cards, not just commons & uncommons.
I just thought this was interesting, and a little counterintuitive. Especially after you add all of the -1/-1 counters, ECL is surprisingly low-toughness!
(It's also interesting to see just how big...
I just thought this was interesting, and a little counterintuitive. Especially after you add all of the -1/-1 counters, ECL is surprisingly low-toughness!
(It's also interesting to see just how big...
January 24, 2026 at 8:17 PM
This holds up if you look at all cards, not just commons & uncommons.
I just thought this was interesting, and a little counterintuitive. Especially after you add all of the -1/-1 counters, ECL is surprisingly low-toughness!
(It's also interesting to see just how big...
I just thought this was interesting, and a little counterintuitive. Especially after you add all of the -1/-1 counters, ECL is surprisingly low-toughness!
(It's also interesting to see just how big...
...all but 7 of these sets has higher average toughness than power, but the biggest toughness outliers are all old sets: Alpha, Alliances, & Antiquities.
But even in the last year, Final Fantasy and The Last Airbender are substantially more tough-leaning than Lorwyn Eclipsed.
But even in the last year, Final Fantasy and The Last Airbender are substantially more tough-leaning than Lorwyn Eclipsed.
January 24, 2026 at 8:17 PM
...all but 7 of these sets has higher average toughness than power, but the biggest toughness outliers are all old sets: Alpha, Alliances, & Antiquities.
But even in the last year, Final Fantasy and The Last Airbender are substantially more tough-leaning than Lorwyn Eclipsed.
But even in the last year, Final Fantasy and The Last Airbender are substantially more tough-leaning than Lorwyn Eclipsed.
With all of the Treefolk and -1/-1 counters running around ECL, folks have been talking about how high-toughness the creatures in this set are.
But, are they? 🤔
I went to make this graph, expecting ECL to be an obvious outlier, and it's... just not!
As you can see... 👇
But, are they? 🤔
I went to make this graph, expecting ECL to be an obvious outlier, and it's... just not!
As you can see... 👇
January 24, 2026 at 8:17 PM
With all of the Treefolk and -1/-1 counters running around ECL, folks have been talking about how high-toughness the creatures in this set are.
But, are they? 🤔
I went to make this graph, expecting ECL to be an obvious outlier, and it's... just not!
As you can see... 👇
But, are they? 🤔
I went to make this graph, expecting ECL to be an obvious outlier, and it's... just not!
As you can see... 👇
What does it say about a format if this is the highest GIHWR blue common?
January 23, 2026 at 1:33 PM
What does it say about a format if this is the highest GIHWR blue common?
@alanpep.bsky.social has been collecting these Archetype Guides from booster boxes since they started doing them, and was kind enough to share two with me: Unfinity and Dominaria Remastered.
Thanks so much!
Thanks so much!
January 22, 2026 at 11:30 PM
@alanpep.bsky.social has been collecting these Archetype Guides from booster boxes since they started doing them, and was kind enough to share two with me: Unfinity and Dominaria Remastered.
Thanks so much!
Thanks so much!
Several folks on @maro254.bsky.social's Blogatog reported that players at prerelease were confused by the official 5-pair archetype guide, hesitating to explore the other five pairs, despite some support for them.
So I made an unofficial guide to those secondary archetypes!
So I made an unofficial guide to those secondary archetypes!
January 22, 2026 at 1:27 AM
Several folks on @maro254.bsky.social's Blogatog reported that players at prerelease were confused by the official 5-pair archetype guide, hesitating to explore the other five pairs, despite some support for them.
So I made an unofficial guide to those secondary archetypes!
So I made an unofficial guide to those secondary archetypes!
#5 is even more out-of-left-field
January 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM
#5 is even more out-of-left-field
I love that Magic is so far from being "solved."
Here are your day-one top GIHWR commons.
Here are your day-one top GIHWR commons.
January 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM
I love that Magic is so far from being "solved."
Here are your day-one top GIHWR commons.
Here are your day-one top GIHWR commons.
Kotaki Sol Rings
January 21, 2026 at 12:06 AM
Kotaki Sol Rings