Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Magic Data Science

@mtgds.bsky.social

2.9K followers 90 following 1.9K posts

Doing math with Magic; doing Magic with math. (Chromatic Lantern; Julie Dillon)

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Pinned

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · Jul 28

A thread that serves as a directory for articles I've written, links to things I've created, and recurring themes.

This is a good place to start if you're new to Magic Data Science.

2 1 12

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1h

I guess the new willingness to just use different names for the UW version of identical UB mechanics now means that we don't have to get too hung up on the portability of those mechanics' names.

1 1

Reposted by Magic Data Science

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 19h

Pizza returns to Magic for the first time since M19.

2 11 83

Reposted by Magic Data Science

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 20h

Tired: "Every mechanic is kicker"

Wired: "Every mechanic is Ninjutsu"

3 2 15

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 14h

With "a turtle in every pack!", are you taking over/under 36 cards with creature type Turtle in this main set?

36 being, of course, the number of planeswalkers in War of the Spark. I suspect the numbers will be different, since Turtles might run into the commons, but 🤷‍♂️

3 9

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 18h

I'm impressed you can remember it, from one pretty obscure (and horizontally flipped) frame!

1 1

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 18h

1 7

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 18h

I'm not 100% sure this is definitive. The basic lands are in the 250s. Could just be lots of multicolor? Or could be some other unorthodox numbering scheme. 🤞

1 1

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 19h

Cleaner image, from the CIG

1 12

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 19h

Pizza returns to Magic for the first time since M19.

2 11 83

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 20h

I have long wanted an artifact token that turns into counters. I hope "Mutagen" is plane-agnostic enough that we can get it in Ikoria or even for the Simic...

Jason Fanelli 🔜 NYCC @jasonfanelli.com · 21h

The secret of the ooze, apparently, is +1/+1 counters.

3 10

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 20h

Tired: "Every mechanic is kicker"

Wired: "Every mechanic is Ninjutsu"

3 2 15

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

What's your P1P1? Vote here: cubecobra.com/cube/p1p1/77...

This one is a little tougher... I'm not really seeing any power outliers.

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

I'm sure I've named other things that I'm just not thinking of now -- feel free to remind me. Or, if you're about to name something, I'd be happy to serve as a name consultant, pro bono.

Names are important! They have power, and should not be taken lightly.

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

platform. Before starting, I thought about calling my blog/identity "Modeling Magic", after @maro254.bsky.social's "Making Magic" column, but I think I ended up in a better place.

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

consider anything in the union of Magic, data, and science, but especially focus on the intersection. Oddly, I rarely use the abbreviation MDS -- I essentially always use MTGDS. I have come to like how that looks, and it's just hard to claim three-letter usernames on any...

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

back at this point, and I still like it fine, but it's more that I have become endeared to it than it is an objectively good name.

Magic Data Science
Several years into this project, I think it holds up well. My logo is a nod to the "data science venn diagram", where I...

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

signposts. I sometimes think I should have gone with #GUDS, instead: gold uncommon draft signposts. This opens me up to three-color buildarounds and sounds like the word "good", which is good, because I think they are "good" cards to care about. I think it's too late to turn...

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

name for a Limited prediction contest!
mtgds.wordpress.com/2023/11/08/p...

#2CUDS
This one I'm not too sure about. It's extremely not-obvious what it stands for (two-color uncommon draft signpost), it's not easy to pronounce, and it constrains me to only considering the *two* color...

P0P1 Challenge

Here’s the idea: before this set goes live on Arena, you pick a “team” of eight unique cards that you think will be the strongest in Arena Premier Draft. Your team is scored by su…

mtgds.wordpress.com

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

kind of nerd Venn diagram: mtgds.wordpress.com/2025/07/29/t...

#P0P1 Challenge
I think this one is pretty clean. Everyone knows what a P1P1 means in a Limited context -- it's the first pick in your first pack. But what's your first pick before any packs are open? Well, that's a perfect...

The Shadowfax Award

Each set, there is a card which most perfectly nails the marriage of mechanics and flavor; a huge win for resonant gameplay. And also, enfranchised players can’t wait to tell you about why it…

mtgds.wordpress.com

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

Haste doesn't usually come with reminder text, and you know that Gandalf asked Shadowfax to "show [him] the meaning of haste", then you get the joke. And the Shadowfax Award is all about finding the cards in other sets that reward players for being at the intersection of this...

1 1

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

The 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒅𝒐𝒘𝒇𝒂𝒙 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝

I give this a "good." In the Magic context, Shadowfax refers to exactly one thing -- a mostly forgettable draft signpost from LTR. It's not an EDH staple, and it wasn't particularly strong in Limited. It *is* a shibboleth: If you know that...

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

of. I give this another "fine": www.tcgplayer.com/content/arti...

TCGplayer

We apologize, but we do not support Internet Explorer. Please use Chrome or Firefox for the best viewing experience on TCGplayer.

www.tcgplayer.com

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

the Empirical Vanilla Test

Similar story here, although this has the advantage of borrowing from the well-known phrase "Vanilla Test". I just added "Empirical" to the front of it because... it's... based on observed data. "EVT" has a good rhythm, and no conflicts that I know...

1 1

Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 1d

Adjusted and Expected Win Rate

These are... fine. They're a little jargony, but I really do not care for the trend in sports/cultural analytics to give things super-cutesy names or backronyms. I feel like these just say what they do.

mtgds.wordpress.com/2022/02/28/k...

Knowledge and Power: Estimating Adjusted Win Rate in Magic: the Gathering limited

Winning in Limited is all about drafting strong cards that have good synergy with each other. In this post, I detail an “Adjusted Win Rate” (AWR) model that attempts to find how much ea…

mtgds.wordpress.com