Sierkovitz
@sierkovitz.bsky.social
Data analysis in Magic: The Gathering; Magic Numbers podcast; Limited Resources regular guest. Interested in coaching - ping me a message.
linktr.ee/sierkovitz for socials
linktr.ee/sierkovitz for socials
Pinned
Sierkovitz
@sierkovitz.bsky.social
· Feb 7
Since I got a load of new followers who, I suspect, have no idea who I am, a short introductory thread.
Starting with the basics: I look at data in Magic and try to convert numbers to actionable advice. You might have heard me on Limited Resources, but I also have my own podcast, Magic Numbers.
1/8
Starting with the basics: I look at data in Magic and try to convert numbers to actionable advice. You might have heard me on Limited Resources, but I also have my own podcast, Magic Numbers.
1/8
Going live with Magic Numbers for this week and we will be talking about drafting fears and how to overcome them. With data. Because.
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
December 10, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Going live with Magic Numbers for this week and we will be talking about drafting fears and how to overcome them. With data. Because.
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
🏆 Enough constructed talk. Opened United Front P1P1 and had agonising decision whether to pick it since W has been quite cut recently or pick UB Azula instead. Picked W, it was predictably cut, saw Rise of Sozin, Day of the B Sun zoom by, started 1-2 but somehow got there.
1/2
1/2
December 10, 2025 at 6:36 PM
🏆 Enough constructed talk. Opened United Front P1P1 and had agonising decision whether to pick it since W has been quite cut recently or pick UB Azula instead. Picked W, it was predictably cut, saw Rise of Sozin, Day of the B Sun zoom by, started 1-2 but somehow got there.
1/2
1/2
You might be wondering: what's up with this wall of cards? Well, those 31 cards represent over 50% of all cards registered in the recent World Championship (standard portion). There were 9451* cards in the deck lists and 4778 of those were one of the 31 listed below.
1/14
1/14
December 10, 2025 at 1:54 PM
You might be wondering: what's up with this wall of cards? Well, those 31 cards represent over 50% of all cards registered in the recent World Championship (standard portion). There were 9451* cards in the deck lists and 4778 of those were one of the 31 listed below.
1/14
1/14
Working hard on my family Christmas presents:
December 9, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Working hard on my family Christmas presents:
What were your first four commander decks?
.....
.....
.....
Although I am flirting with the idea of building a Chevill, Bane of Monsters but only cause we are lookalikes
.....
.....
.....
Although I am flirting with the idea of building a Chevill, Bane of Monsters but only cause we are lookalikes
What were your first four commander decks?
December 7, 2025 at 11:25 PM
What were your first four commander decks?
.....
.....
.....
Although I am flirting with the idea of building a Chevill, Bane of Monsters but only cause we are lookalikes
.....
.....
.....
Although I am flirting with the idea of building a Chevill, Bane of Monsters but only cause we are lookalikes
On Fridays I volunteer to sort bulk in my local mental health charity LGS (yes we have such a thing and it is great - consider supporting them) Roll the Dice and found 12 of those bad boys which reminded me that every time of the day should be @shivambhatt.bsky.social O’Clock!
December 6, 2025 at 2:21 PM
On Fridays I volunteer to sort bulk in my local mental health charity LGS (yes we have such a thing and it is great - consider supporting them) Roll the Dice and found 12 of those bad boys which reminded me that every time of the day should be @shivambhatt.bsky.social O’Clock!
🏆 Watching the Worlds and drafting - what a perfect Friday evening.
And finally managed to get a proper tempo deck and it worked a charm. 7-1 largely on the tired and aged shoulders of Gran Grans. Yangchen helped. For example exiled opponent's Yangchen.
1/3
And finally managed to get a proper tempo deck and it worked a charm. 7-1 largely on the tired and aged shoulders of Gran Grans. Yangchen helped. For example exiled opponent's Yangchen.
1/3
December 6, 2025 at 1:30 AM
🏆 Watching the Worlds and drafting - what a perfect Friday evening.
And finally managed to get a proper tempo deck and it worked a charm. 7-1 largely on the tired and aged shoulders of Gran Grans. Yangchen helped. For example exiled opponent's Yangchen.
1/3
And finally managed to get a proper tempo deck and it worked a charm. 7-1 largely on the tired and aged shoulders of Gran Grans. Yangchen helped. For example exiled opponent's Yangchen.
1/3
I got my annual Spotify stats for Magic Numbers and good news - thanks to y'all the podcast is growing. But what spiked my interest is: the top 3 artists my followers listen to and the top 3 podcasts they listen to. Do you think there is a connection across the ranks?
December 5, 2025 at 12:43 PM
I got my annual Spotify stats for Magic Numbers and good news - thanks to y'all the podcast is growing. But what spiked my interest is: the top 3 artists my followers listen to and the top 3 podcasts they listen to. Do you think there is a connection across the ranks?
Based on my draft experience:
6 Spider Man
5 Aetherdrift
4 Tarkir: Dragonstorm
3 Final Fantasy
2 Avatar
1 Edge of Eternities
Order may change as Avatar may still benefit from being new.
6 Spider Man
5 Aetherdrift
4 Tarkir: Dragonstorm
3 Final Fantasy
2 Avatar
1 Edge of Eternities
Order may change as Avatar may still benefit from being new.
Put the sets from 2025 in order from best to worst.
We have 6 sets:
Aetherdrift
Tarkir: Dragonstorm
Final Fantasy
Edge of Eternities
Spider-Man
Avatar the Last Airbender
We have 6 sets:
Aetherdrift
Tarkir: Dragonstorm
Final Fantasy
Edge of Eternities
Spider-Man
Avatar the Last Airbender
December 2, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Based on my draft experience:
6 Spider Man
5 Aetherdrift
4 Tarkir: Dragonstorm
3 Final Fantasy
2 Avatar
1 Edge of Eternities
Order may change as Avatar may still benefit from being new.
6 Spider Man
5 Aetherdrift
4 Tarkir: Dragonstorm
3 Final Fantasy
2 Avatar
1 Edge of Eternities
Order may change as Avatar may still benefit from being new.
OK - trying to sell my Spotlight promo one more time after my last attempt was removed cause reading terms be hard.
If you like Spider-Man and my content - why not merging the two interests and getting yourself a pretty rare and good looking piece?
ebay.us/m/H8Lz3b
If you like Spider-Man and my content - why not merging the two interests and getting yourself a pretty rare and good looking piece?
ebay.us/m/H8Lz3b
December 2, 2025 at 2:40 PM
OK - trying to sell my Spotlight promo one more time after my last attempt was removed cause reading terms be hard.
If you like Spider-Man and my content - why not merging the two interests and getting yourself a pretty rare and good looking piece?
ebay.us/m/H8Lz3b
If you like Spider-Man and my content - why not merging the two interests and getting yourself a pretty rare and good looking piece?
ebay.us/m/H8Lz3b
🏆 A premium deck in best colors filled to the brim with powerful cards - easy 7-1. Did I break the format? Probably not. But hey, it worked. We take those. But I have to say - Corrupt Court Official is growing on me - restricting oppo resources still good.
December 1, 2025 at 11:45 PM
🏆 A premium deck in best colors filled to the brim with powerful cards - easy 7-1. Did I break the format? Probably not. But hey, it worked. We take those. But I have to say - Corrupt Court Official is growing on me - restricting oppo resources still good.
I know I bore you with "sample size is important" so for a change, today let's celebrate small sample sizes and how important they are in our lives.
I am not biased.
I am not biased.
December 1, 2025 at 12:56 PM
I know I bore you with "sample size is important" so for a change, today let's celebrate small sample sizes and how important they are in our lives.
I am not biased.
I am not biased.
🏆 I was as surprised as you probably are that this got me a box, but somehow a 7-1 with my WB not-really-sacrifice + a veeeery dodgy Azula splash. Turns out hard removal can win games and restricting resources works well.
Hey - 3 bullets, 2 boxes - can't complain.
Hey - 3 bullets, 2 boxes - can't complain.
December 1, 2025 at 12:29 PM
🏆 I was as surprised as you probably are that this got me a box, but somehow a 7-1 with my WB not-really-sacrifice + a veeeery dodgy Azula splash. Turns out hard removal can win games and restricting resources works well.
Hey - 3 bullets, 2 boxes - can't complain.
Hey - 3 bullets, 2 boxes - can't complain.
Not a shame to lose out by the whiskers to @tedfro.bsky.social and Adam, a staple of the Skeleton Crew. Game is still afoot! Please people - tank Foggy Swamp Spirit Keepers win rate to help :P
One thing I enjoy about the #P0P1 contest is that there is *definitely* some skill to it -- it's clearly not just random. As evidence, I'll note that the top of the table is always full of familiar names -- folks who have placed well before. And... this time... @sierkovitz.bsky.social!
November 30, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Not a shame to lose out by the whiskers to @tedfro.bsky.social and Adam, a staple of the Skeleton Crew. Game is still afoot! Please people - tank Foggy Swamp Spirit Keepers win rate to help :P
New Magic Numbers are live now! We try to find best homes for each of the Avatar: The Last Airbender card. Which color pair in draft will house them most favourably?
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
November 29, 2025 at 11:19 PM
New Magic Numbers are live now! We try to find best homes for each of the Avatar: The Last Airbender card. Which color pair in draft will house them most favourably?
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
🏆 Collector box - here we come. On the second bullet (both logs below). This deck was hard-carried by the Barrels of Blasting Jelly - they made the mana possible and in last game killed 4 creatures in total (thanks Toph). Some really wild games but managed a clean 7-0
November 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
🏆 Collector box - here we come. On the second bullet (both logs below). This deck was hard-carried by the Barrels of Blasting Jelly - they made the mana possible and in last game killed 4 creatures in total (thanks Toph). Some really wild games but managed a clean 7-0
Marshall - having a rant about disliking Vehicles on Limited Resources.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
November 28, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Marshall - having a rant about disliking Vehicles on Limited Resources.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
🏆 Bit of a surprise, but we do take those. Deck performed well and I was probably a bit lucky with never having mana issues. The key themes were card draw and evasion.
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
November 27, 2025 at 2:32 PM
🏆 Bit of a surprise, but we do take those. Deck performed well and I was probably a bit lucky with never having mana issues. The key themes were card draw and evasion.
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
Yesterday I looked at the commons, today time for uncommons. Which colors in Avatar draft are the deepest? I look at Game in Hand Win Rate of 1st, 2nd .... nth best common in each color pair. And again UB, WU, UR come out on top. This time with addition of WG.
1/9
1/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Yesterday I looked at the commons, today time for uncommons. Which colors in Avatar draft are the deepest? I look at Game in Hand Win Rate of 1st, 2nd .... nth best common in each color pair. And again UB, WU, UR come out on top. This time with addition of WG.
1/9
1/9
Color pair power in limited depends on many factors. One of them is colour pair "depth" - availability of good commons in a pod. That's what we are exploring today. Here are all the non-land commons for each of the 10 color pairs in Avatar plotted by Game in Hand WR rank.
1/9
1/9
November 25, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Color pair power in limited depends on many factors. One of them is colour pair "depth" - availability of good commons in a pod. That's what we are exploring today. Here are all the non-land commons for each of the 10 color pairs in Avatar plotted by Game in Hand WR rank.
1/9
1/9
Today some hot constructed data - I put together the results from EU, US and Canada RCs in Modern and here are the win rates. Since we are measuring unsure numbers - displayed as 95% confidence intervals (so we are 95% sure the real WR is within the bars for each deck.
1/9
1/9
November 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Today some hot constructed data - I put together the results from EU, US and Canada RCs in Modern and here are the win rates. Since we are measuring unsure numbers - displayed as 95% confidence intervals (so we are 95% sure the real WR is within the bars for each deck.
1/9
1/9
New Magic Numbers are live on YT and Spotify (give me follows, or whatever those are called, there to get the updates automatically.
We are diving into early data for Avatar and there is a lot to explore there: Best colors, strongest cards and what makes each color pair tick.
youtu.be/K50WFq3fgKk
We are diving into early data for Avatar and there is a lot to explore there: Best colors, strongest cards and what makes each color pair tick.
youtu.be/K50WFq3fgKk
Magic Numbers #168: Early 17Lands Draft data for Avatar: the Last Airbender
YouTube video by Sierkovitz
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 1:34 PM
New Magic Numbers are live on YT and Spotify (give me follows, or whatever those are called, there to get the updates automatically.
We are diving into early data for Avatar and there is a lot to explore there: Best colors, strongest cards and what makes each color pair tick.
youtu.be/K50WFq3fgKk
We are diving into early data for Avatar and there is a lot to explore there: Best colors, strongest cards and what makes each color pair tick.
youtu.be/K50WFq3fgKk
Going Live with new Magic Numbers - all about early 17Lands draft data for Avatar set. How does the meta look like, which cards surprised, which ones are traps and all that jazz.
twich.tv/sierkovitz
twich.tv/sierkovitz
November 22, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Going Live with new Magic Numbers - all about early 17Lands draft data for Avatar set. How does the meta look like, which cards surprised, which ones are traps and all that jazz.
twich.tv/sierkovitz
twich.tv/sierkovitz
🏆 Only Allies in the building. It was maybe not the best aggro deck but mid to late game value was through the roof - a classic deck where first turns are set-up and later is total domination. Lost to Momo into Reinforcement into W Suki. This is what it took.
7-1
7-1
November 19, 2025 at 4:55 PM
🏆 Only Allies in the building. It was maybe not the best aggro deck but mid to late game value was through the roof - a classic deck where first turns are set-up and later is total domination. Lost to Momo into Reinforcement into W Suki. This is what it took.
7-1
7-1
Looking at the super early data from Avatar draft win rates - it's basically the power cube...
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
November 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Looking at the super early data from Avatar draft win rates - it's basically the power cube...
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.