Sierkovitz
@sierkovitz.bsky.social
Data analysis in Magic: The Gathering; Magic Numbers podcast; Limited Resources regular guest. Interested in coaching - ping me a message.
linktr.ee/sierkovitz for socials
linktr.ee/sierkovitz for socials
New Magic Numbers are live now! We try to find best homes for each of the Avatar: The Last Airbender card. Which color pair in draft will house them most favourably?
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
November 29, 2025 at 11:19 PM
New Magic Numbers are live now! We try to find best homes for each of the Avatar: The Last Airbender card. Which color pair in draft will house them most favourably?
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
Join me on twitch!
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
First deck was clearly weaker but still had some potential. Issue was removal really - Was wondering if I should have just played B for the 4 excellent removal spells.
Feel free to look through pool, build and games.
www.17lands.com/details/2d6e...
www.17lands.com/details/c1e7...
2/2
Feel free to look through pool, build and games.
www.17lands.com/details/2d6e...
www.17lands.com/details/c1e7...
2/2
November 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
First deck was clearly weaker but still had some potential. Issue was removal really - Was wondering if I should have just played B for the 4 excellent removal spells.
Feel free to look through pool, build and games.
www.17lands.com/details/2d6e...
www.17lands.com/details/c1e7...
2/2
Feel free to look through pool, build and games.
www.17lands.com/details/2d6e...
www.17lands.com/details/c1e7...
2/2
🏆 Collector box - here we come. On the second bullet (both logs below). This deck was hard-carried by the Barrels of Blasting Jelly - they made the mana possible and in last game killed 4 creatures in total (thanks Toph). Some really wild games but managed a clean 7-0
November 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
🏆 Collector box - here we come. On the second bullet (both logs below). This deck was hard-carried by the Barrels of Blasting Jelly - they made the mana possible and in last game killed 4 creatures in total (thanks Toph). Some really wild games but managed a clean 7-0
Marshall - having a rant about disliking Vehicles on Limited Resources.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
November 28, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Marshall - having a rant about disliking Vehicles on Limited Resources.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
Someone in the design team: "Hear me out!"
Apocryphal, but sounds true. They definitely overshot - card has wild numbers in terms of win rate. Pick it high, they still travel too far round the table.
🏆 Bit of a surprise, but we do take those. Deck performed well and I was probably a bit lucky with never having mana issues. The key themes were card draw and evasion.
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
November 27, 2025 at 2:32 PM
🏆 Bit of a surprise, but we do take those. Deck performed well and I was probably a bit lucky with never having mana issues. The key themes were card draw and evasion.
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
If you have an OK defence and outdraw opponent while they can't block you - turns out you're favoured.
7-2
1/2
Looking at both C and U - you can clearly see UB and WU are the deepest colors. White looks very powerful at U level - all 4 W pairs have more good uncommons than commons. This is led by the Aang, Water Tribe Rallier and Earth Kingdom Jailer, three great uncommons.
7/9
7/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Looking at both C and U - you can clearly see UB and WU are the deepest colors. White looks very powerful at U level - all 4 W pairs have more good uncommons than commons. This is led by the Aang, Water Tribe Rallier and Earth Kingdom Jailer, three great uncommons.
7/9
7/9
Yesterday I looked at the commons, today time for uncommons. Which colors in Avatar draft are the deepest? I look at Game in Hand Win Rate of 1st, 2nd .... nth best common in each color pair. And again UB, WU, UR come out on top. This time with addition of WG.
1/9
1/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Yesterday I looked at the commons, today time for uncommons. Which colors in Avatar draft are the deepest? I look at Game in Hand Win Rate of 1st, 2nd .... nth best common in each color pair. And again UB, WU, UR come out on top. This time with addition of WG.
1/9
1/9
The first graph is complex and messy because that what limited Magic is - complex mess where wins and losses are defined by fine margins. So here is a simplified version with number of commons with a win rate > 57%. The same picture emerges.
7/9
7/9
November 25, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The first graph is complex and messy because that what limited Magic is - complex mess where wins and losses are defined by fine margins. So here is a simplified version with number of commons with a win rate > 57%. The same picture emerges.
7/9
7/9
Color pair power in limited depends on many factors. One of them is colour pair "depth" - availability of good commons in a pod. That's what we are exploring today. Here are all the non-land commons for each of the 10 color pairs in Avatar plotted by Game in Hand WR rank.
1/9
1/9
November 25, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Color pair power in limited depends on many factors. One of them is colour pair "depth" - availability of good commons in a pod. That's what we are exploring today. Here are all the non-land commons for each of the 10 color pairs in Avatar plotted by Game in Hand WR rank.
1/9
1/9
And last thing - there was a ton of speculation about decks going to time and making rounds last long. Here is the data on % of draws for each of those archetypes.
And Amulet doesn't look like an offender in that aspect. 2.3% draws is on par with Boros.
7/9
And Amulet doesn't look like an offender in that aspect. 2.3% draws is on par with Boros.
7/9
November 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
And last thing - there was a ton of speculation about decks going to time and making rounds last long. Here is the data on % of draws for each of those archetypes.
And Amulet doesn't look like an offender in that aspect. 2.3% draws is on par with Boros.
7/9
And Amulet doesn't look like an offender in that aspect. 2.3% draws is on par with Boros.
7/9
Today some hot constructed data - I put together the results from EU, US and Canada RCs in Modern and here are the win rates. Since we are measuring unsure numbers - displayed as 95% confidence intervals (so we are 95% sure the real WR is within the bars for each deck.
1/9
1/9
November 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Today some hot constructed data - I put together the results from EU, US and Canada RCs in Modern and here are the win rates. Since we are measuring unsure numbers - displayed as 95% confidence intervals (so we are 95% sure the real WR is within the bars for each deck.
1/9
1/9
Going Live with new Magic Numbers - all about early 17Lands draft data for Avatar set. How does the meta look like, which cards surprised, which ones are traps and all that jazz.
twich.tv/sierkovitz
twich.tv/sierkovitz
November 22, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Going Live with new Magic Numbers - all about early 17Lands draft data for Avatar set. How does the meta look like, which cards surprised, which ones are traps and all that jazz.
twich.tv/sierkovitz
twich.tv/sierkovitz
🏆 Only Allies in the building. It was maybe not the best aggro deck but mid to late game value was through the roof - a classic deck where first turns are set-up and later is total domination. Lost to Momo into Reinforcement into W Suki. This is what it took.
7-1
7-1
November 19, 2025 at 4:55 PM
🏆 Only Allies in the building. It was maybe not the best aggro deck but mid to late game value was through the roof - a classic deck where first turns are set-up and later is total domination. Lost to Momo into Reinforcement into W Suki. This is what it took.
7-1
7-1
Looking at the super early data from Avatar draft win rates - it's basically the power cube...
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
November 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Looking at the super early data from Avatar draft win rates - it's basically the power cube...
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
Grain of salt etc. but White or Naya looks like the place to be. Let's see what the next days bring.
PSA for Python 17Lands users - you need to update the client or the data won't upload - you wouldn't want to miss the early avatar drafts, would you? This is how your Event History would look like if you need an update:
Please share generously to reach as many as possible.
Please share generously to reach as many as possible.
November 18, 2025 at 3:55 PM
PSA for Python 17Lands users - you need to update the client or the data won't upload - you wouldn't want to miss the early avatar drafts, would you? This is how your Event History would look like if you need an update:
Please share generously to reach as many as possible.
Please share generously to reach as many as possible.
Skeleton Crew is back for the Avatar: The Last Airbender. Join our deck-centric eccentric limited set review with
@zakagan.bsky.social, @sampratt.bsky.social, Tresio
Join us at twitch.tv/sierkovitz
@zakagan.bsky.social, @sampratt.bsky.social, Tresio
Join us at twitch.tv/sierkovitz
November 10, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Skeleton Crew is back for the Avatar: The Last Airbender. Join our deck-centric eccentric limited set review with
@zakagan.bsky.social, @sampratt.bsky.social, Tresio
Join us at twitch.tv/sierkovitz
@zakagan.bsky.social, @sampratt.bsky.social, Tresio
Join us at twitch.tv/sierkovitz
I am a man of exquisite taste. And very flexible with the definition of a common
November 10, 2025 at 8:01 PM
I am a man of exquisite taste. And very flexible with the definition of a common
Hello friends! If you like me and would like to support me, and like Spider-Man, or unique promos - I put on the foil Spotlight Liverpool Spectacular Spider-Man on Ebay.
Obvs straight to sleeve, straight to toploader, shipping globally.
ebay.us/m/vlb0ww
Obvs straight to sleeve, straight to toploader, shipping globally.
ebay.us/m/vlb0ww
November 4, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Hello friends! If you like me and would like to support me, and like Spider-Man, or unique promos - I put on the foil Spotlight Liverpool Spectacular Spider-Man on Ebay.
Obvs straight to sleeve, straight to toploader, shipping globally.
ebay.us/m/vlb0ww
Obvs straight to sleeve, straight to toploader, shipping globally.
ebay.us/m/vlb0ww
New Magic Numbers are up on YT. A bit on Liverpool experience, a bit on general Spiderman set situation but mainly looking at signals in pick 2 draft. I do think pick 2 is a fine idea and stronger signalling is an interesting aspect of it, worth exploring.
youtu.be/ryDhc9Rv5Ek
youtu.be/ryDhc9Rv5Ek
November 4, 2025 at 12:50 PM
New Magic Numbers are up on YT. A bit on Liverpool experience, a bit on general Spiderman set situation but mainly looking at signals in pick 2 draft. I do think pick 2 is a fine idea and stronger signalling is an interesting aspect of it, worth exploring.
youtu.be/ryDhc9Rv5Ek
youtu.be/ryDhc9Rv5Ek
It's all been fun and games in Liverpool but back to harsh reality of being a limited content creator. Back with Magic Numbers after a hiatus and don't worry - back for good. Today - let's see what pick 2 draft does with draft signals.
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
November 3, 2025 at 9:16 PM
It's all been fun and games in Liverpool but back to harsh reality of being a limited content creator. Back with Magic Numbers after a hiatus and don't worry - back for good. Today - let's see what pick 2 draft does with draft signals.
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
twitch.tv/sierkovitz
I don’t know if people are ready for the truth.
October 30, 2025 at 7:13 PM
I don’t know if people are ready for the truth.
I need a shower to cry under but my planned prep for the Spotlight is done. List locked and I managed for the first time ever to get to Mythic. It was a pain with BO3 but at least I have a half decent plan against the mirror and against monoR. Shame the pilot is flawed.
October 29, 2025 at 12:47 PM
I need a shower to cry under but my planned prep for the Spotlight is done. List locked and I managed for the first time ever to get to Mythic. It was a pain with BO3 but at least I have a half decent plan against the mirror and against monoR. Shame the pilot is flawed.
My prep for Spotlight Liverpool:
Also - if you are going make sure to say hi.
Also - if you are going make sure to say hi.
October 28, 2025 at 5:44 PM
My prep for Spotlight Liverpool:
Also - if you are going make sure to say hi.
Also - if you are going make sure to say hi.