Sierkovitz
sierkovitz.bsky.social
Sierkovitz
@sierkovitz.bsky.social
Data analysis in Magic: The Gathering; Magic Numbers podcast; Limited Resources regular guest. Interested in coaching - ping me a message.

linktr.ee/sierkovitz for socials
it also works well with Sokka - was ok. Obviously first game I opened Momo into Glider ;)
December 1, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Word!
December 1, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Oh - I do remember that game all too well... The volume of removal you deployed against me was formidable. I though I had you but Roku had other plans it seems.

And 6-2 is not half bad - shame no box tho. Deck was sweet.
November 30, 2025 at 10:58 PM
November 30, 2025 at 10:55 PM
I knew of the Toph - Barrels combo but one game I did it with Submersible and it is as good as you can imagine.
November 29, 2025 at 8:29 PM
First deck was clearly weaker but still had some potential. Issue was removal really - Was wondering if I should have just played B for the 4 excellent removal spells.

Feel free to look through pool, build and games.

www.17lands.com/details/2d6e...
www.17lands.com/details/c1e7...

2/2
November 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Also - better Man-o-war
November 28, 2025 at 9:10 PM
2 clues + itself
November 28, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Log if you are interested. P1P1 doesn't unfortunately log on Arena as there were some changes to how they are constructed - I was tanking between Spirit I picked and Lightning Strike - I think red lane was a possibility in that draft.

www.17lands.com/draft/01cf7d...

2/2
17Lands.com
www.17lands.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:32 PM
That way you can estimate how likely it is to get hooked up with quality cards. Build those slight preferences for colors more likely to be open because of the card power and metagame implications. This will potentially give you an edge in the draft if applied correctly.

9/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
As a rule of the thumb you can multiply commons by 2, add uncommons and you have a good proxy for the number of good cards in a color pair opened per pod (so WB = 2*8+13 = 29). Opened ≠ passed. Look at cards that go late in the draft using the ALSA metric from 17Lands.

8/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Looking at both C and U - you can clearly see UB and WU are the deepest colors. White looks very powerful at U level - all 4 W pairs have more good uncommons than commons. This is led by the Aang, Water Tribe Rallier and Earth Kingdom Jailer, three great uncommons.

7/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
BG and UG look underwhelming with only a handfull of cards that look great. UG might want to be multicolor, so maybe data doesn't capture it well. And BG might need some more time to figure out the best plan, but they both may be poor too. Yet again Rakdos trails the rest.

6/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
WB and Boros (WR) look similar, but WR has a much better top cards, which is quite important. Top win rate cards is what you want to fill your deck with, so worth knowing those. But past top 7 or so uncommons, WB and WR look fairly even.

5/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
RG is an interesting case - wants a narrow range of cards at C and U: 16 or so. But those 16 look pretty powerful if you find the density of those specific cards you might be onto the winner. Question is - how often does that happen. Worth knowing the 16 in question tho.

4/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
UW and UB look similar to what we saw at common - deep colors with great top end cards. Question of building them well when the opportunity presents itself which may not be trivial.

UR has 6 great Uncommons, but then rapidly deteriorates in terms of card quality.

3/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
WG doesn't have a ton of Uncommons with >60% win rate, but there is a ton of them at 57-59% range. And 4 that barely missed my arbitrary threshold at 56.9%, making it the pair with the greatest depth of solid cards at Uncommon. But drafting WG be wary - commons are shallow.

2/9
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM