Non-Correlating Stock Ideas
@ncsi.bsky.social
Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/non-correlating-stock-ideas
Pinned
While the 10Y did break the Bear trend last week, other indicators are right up against it like the 30Y $TYX. I have so much short duration on that I decided to start picking up a preferred security of all things. The trend feels higher, but I've decided to nibble just in case.
It's easy to tell when you're on a parabola, but it's hard to tell which part of it.
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
December 29, 2025 at 5:38 PM
It's easy to tell when you're on a parabola, but it's hard to tell which part of it.
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Between the YE mark-up and non-binding MOU BS, $NVDA was able to reverse the Sell signal on its 2% box size P&F chart. Does make me feel like we might have to wait for the $NDX to give a relative Sell signal before we're good to go to the downside. We'll see what '26 brings.
December 26, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Between the YE mark-up and non-binding MOU BS, $NVDA was able to reverse the Sell signal on its 2% box size P&F chart. Does make me feel like we might have to wait for the $NDX to give a relative Sell signal before we're good to go to the downside. We'll see what '26 brings.
Many years ago, I wrote up $BCX as an option for income accounts to also gain exposure to broad commodity returns. I still own some, but after a massive gain this year thanks mostly to the precious metals rip, I've monetized a chunk to reduce my exposure to any regression we see in '26.
December 24, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Many years ago, I wrote up $BCX as an option for income accounts to also gain exposure to broad commodity returns. I still own some, but after a massive gain this year thanks mostly to the precious metals rip, I've monetized a chunk to reduce my exposure to any regression we see in '26.
I had always wondered why kids were moving to this dead social network in $SNAP. After reading this now it's clear, and I'm 100% sure it was done with intent by Snapchat. New front runner for worst social media network? I know it's hard with X out there.
A case in Louisiana highlights the nightmarish potential of AI deepfakes to upend children’s lives. And while schools are working to address artificial intelligence in classroom instruction, they often have done little to prepare for what the new tech means for cyberbullying and harassment.
Boys at her school shared AI-generated, nude images of her. After a fight, she was the one expelled
A 13-year-old girl at a Louisiana middle school got into a fight with classmates who were sharing AI-generated nude images of her.
bit.ly
December 22, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I had always wondered why kids were moving to this dead social network in $SNAP. After reading this now it's clear, and I'm 100% sure it was done with intent by Snapchat. New front runner for worst social media network? I know it's hard with X out there.
I've been doing some work on $DEO. It's a bit hard to pin down the exact point, but I think it's in the zone of interest now for a few reasons. There were a few weeks during GFC when on a valuation basis it went even lower, but this is most likely a base zone. We'll see. No position yet.
December 22, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I've been doing some work on $DEO. It's a bit hard to pin down the exact point, but I think it's in the zone of interest now for a few reasons. There were a few weeks during GFC when on a valuation basis it went even lower, but this is most likely a base zone. We'll see. No position yet.
When I went searching through desk drawers for every silver oz coin I could find to sell in the $50's, I didn't expect $SLV to make a new all-time high on the monthly rsi. 😆
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
December 22, 2025 at 3:23 PM
When I went searching through desk drawers for every silver oz coin I could find to sell in the $50's, I didn't expect $SLV to make a new all-time high on the monthly rsi. 😆
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
The AI YE rally is in full force. Even flipped $PLTR back to Buy on the 2% box chart. $NVDA still lagging. Needs 188+ to follow.
December 22, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The AI YE rally is in full force. Even flipped $PLTR back to Buy on the 2% box chart. $NVDA still lagging. Needs 188+ to follow.
Just as a point of discussion, I think the math problem here is when the mcap index gets so concentrated, and outperforms the EW index to a significant degree, the assumption that low correlation = good stock picking doesn't work. I have similar issues with our popular measures of volatility.
S&P 500 3-month realized average stock correlation remains low... stockpickers' market... yet most stockpickers have sucked wind this year (see: SPIVA)... funny how that works
December 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Just as a point of discussion, I think the math problem here is when the mcap index gets so concentrated, and outperforms the EW index to a significant degree, the assumption that low correlation = good stock picking doesn't work. I have similar issues with our popular measures of volatility.
Looks like Fridays are when the garbage gets picked up.
December 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Looks like Fridays are when the garbage gets picked up.
My $BTC / $RSP signal generated a relative Sell signal yesterday. That's only happened a few times in its short history so far. I put red X's by the time periods when this signal was generated on BTC's chart. Looks like winter has come. Not necessarily down from here, but 1-2 years of sideways min.
December 19, 2025 at 3:53 PM
My $BTC / $RSP signal generated a relative Sell signal yesterday. That's only happened a few times in its short history so far. I put red X's by the time periods when this signal was generated on BTC's chart. Looks like winter has come. Not necessarily down from here, but 1-2 years of sideways min.
It would go down as one of the greatest market surprises to me if this Tech bubble continues to collapse with only 9 more trading days to go, after $NDX put up an intra-year rally of basically 60%. Either way, January '26 is going to be extra spicy.
December 17, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It would go down as one of the greatest market surprises to me if this Tech bubble continues to collapse with only 9 more trading days to go, after $NDX put up an intra-year rally of basically 60%. Either way, January '26 is going to be extra spicy.
On a 0-10 scale, if 10 is 'table pounding,' I'm at a 9 on this right now. Just missing a fundamental improvement element economically. $RHI
December 17, 2025 at 3:23 PM
On a 0-10 scale, if 10 is 'table pounding,' I'm at a 9 on this right now. Just missing a fundamental improvement element economically. $RHI
There's a few caveats here: it happened on the open, and yes there was a false signal back in May, but this is also a triple Buy signal on the 2% box size, and that nearly perfect inverse correlation with the AI trade has been backing off. I've finally bumped this one up to a full position. $RHI
December 15, 2025 at 4:21 PM
There's a few caveats here: it happened on the open, and yes there was a false signal back in May, but this is also a triple Buy signal on the 2% box size, and that nearly perfect inverse correlation with the AI trade has been backing off. I've finally bumped this one up to a full position. $RHI
While the 10Y did break the Bear trend last week, other indicators are right up against it like the 30Y $TYX. I have so much short duration on that I decided to start picking up a preferred security of all things. The trend feels higher, but I've decided to nibble just in case.
December 13, 2025 at 11:41 PM
While the 10Y did break the Bear trend last week, other indicators are right up against it like the 30Y $TYX. I have so much short duration on that I decided to start picking up a preferred security of all things. The trend feels higher, but I've decided to nibble just in case.
Can this ratio go negative? No position but starting to watch.
$DEO / $SPXEW total return basis.
$DEO / $SPXEW total return basis.
December 12, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Can this ratio go negative? No position but starting to watch.
$DEO / $SPXEW total return basis.
$DEO / $SPXEW total return basis.
I just setup an alert for this. Don't expect it to trigger before the end of the year. Just too much at stake for YE Comp, but January may be in play. $NDX
December 12, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I just setup an alert for this. Don't expect it to trigger before the end of the year. Just too much at stake for YE Comp, but January may be in play. $NDX
While the AI trade continues to provide more cracking sounds, old friend $RHI also gets even more interesting. Still yields 8.5% with no debt blah blah blah. Risk is AI replaces accountants and auditors. Otherwise, big opportunity might be knocking.
December 12, 2025 at 4:37 PM
While the AI trade continues to provide more cracking sounds, old friend $RHI also gets even more interesting. Still yields 8.5% with no debt blah blah blah. Risk is AI replaces accountants and auditors. Otherwise, big opportunity might be knocking.
Ok, this $SPX is getting interesting. 30 minute 1 month bar chart.
December 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Ok, this $SPX is getting interesting. 30 minute 1 month bar chart.
$AVGO joins the list of AI related stocks generating Sell signals on 2% box size P&F chart, but it did so as far back as... November, so might want to wait for another confirmation signal.
December 12, 2025 at 4:17 PM
$AVGO joins the list of AI related stocks generating Sell signals on 2% box size P&F chart, but it did so as far back as... November, so might want to wait for another confirmation signal.
The Value/Growth ratio is having a good day today, and on a ytd basis you can see outside of that late Nov dip, it's been basing here in the .63x line of the total return ratio. That's interesting because that was the bottom level it reached during the last tech bubble in March of 2000. $RLV/$RLG
December 11, 2025 at 4:19 PM
The Value/Growth ratio is having a good day today, and on a ytd basis you can see outside of that late Nov dip, it's been basing here in the .63x line of the total return ratio. That's interesting because that was the bottom level it reached during the last tech bubble in March of 2000. $RLV/$RLG
$NVDA's relative performance has been lagging, as it couldn't get up through that mid-180's zone that was an old resistance level. A 166.98 print on the 2% box chart would generate a 2nd Sell signal, and a potential repeat for a period of underperformance for the most important stock in the world.
December 11, 2025 at 3:21 PM
$NVDA's relative performance has been lagging, as it couldn't get up through that mid-180's zone that was an old resistance level. A 166.98 print on the 2% box chart would generate a 2nd Sell signal, and a potential repeat for a period of underperformance for the most important stock in the world.
I prefer the % box vs traditional price on P&F, but that's not going to work with $WLK given its long down column of O's on that basis. Hence, I still do pay attention to the price box, and when I see something like this with a Quad Buy signal I'll take notice. Still view Chems as interesting.
December 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
I prefer the % box vs traditional price on P&F, but that's not going to work with $WLK given its long down column of O's on that basis. Hence, I still do pay attention to the price box, and when I see something like this with a Quad Buy signal I'll take notice. Still view Chems as interesting.
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
December 9, 2025 at 2:18 PM
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀