Non-Correlating Stock Ideas
@ncsi.bsky.social
Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/non-correlating-stock-ideas
Earnings are the primary driver over time, but I think there's some argument about recent years. Admit I don't have time to drill into this, but my guess is most of those recent earnings are non-gaap and have a huge spread to gaap. Not sure this is the best dataset, but gets my point across.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Earnings are the primary driver over time, but I think there's some argument about recent years. Admit I don't have time to drill into this, but my guess is most of those recent earnings are non-gaap and have a huge spread to gaap. Not sure this is the best dataset, but gets my point across.
Seeing this across Chemicals and Materials sector overall. $LYB just generated a Buy signal on the 2% box size. Haven't seen or heard any fundamental improvement yet, but the valuations were at GFC crisis lows.
January 6, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Seeing this across Chemicals and Materials sector overall. $LYB just generated a Buy signal on the 2% box size. Haven't seen or heard any fundamental improvement yet, but the valuations were at GFC crisis lows.
Another name I don't talk about much is $WAB. This is its 5 year relative log chart: $WAB / $RSP total return basis. It still eked out a positive relative return last year, but took a break from its trajectory. Pause that refreshes, or prelude to a trend change?
January 5, 2026 at 8:26 PM
Another name I don't talk about much is $WAB. This is its 5 year relative log chart: $WAB / $RSP total return basis. It still eked out a positive relative return last year, but took a break from its trajectory. Pause that refreshes, or prelude to a trend change?
I am a long-term investor, and I often will hold onto positions for years. I always track cumulative, current, and each year's relative return for every position vs $RSP and $SPSM. $MLI has just been on an amazing run the last three years. Just love the steady stellar returns. log chart $MLI / $RSP
January 5, 2026 at 8:26 PM
I am a long-term investor, and I often will hold onto positions for years. I always track cumulative, current, and each year's relative return for every position vs $RSP and $SPSM. $MLI has just been on an amazing run the last three years. Just love the steady stellar returns. log chart $MLI / $RSP
I wanted to do a favorite bounce back stocks for '26 idea but have been too busy. I've talked a lot about one $RHI, but the other I haven't shared and that's $SW. I started buying late last year and it's been strong already. It should face some resistance here, but I think due dill is worthwhile.
January 5, 2026 at 5:30 PM
I wanted to do a favorite bounce back stocks for '26 idea but have been too busy. I've talked a lot about one $RHI, but the other I haven't shared and that's $SW. I started buying late last year and it's been strong already. It should face some resistance here, but I think due dill is worthwhile.
Holiday stuff kept me from posting this previously, and I know it's up today, but $PLTR generated another Sell signal on the 2% box chart. That's a lot of negative chop for an AI leader.
January 5, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Holiday stuff kept me from posting this previously, and I know it's up today, but $PLTR generated another Sell signal on the 2% box chart. That's a lot of negative chop for an AI leader.
An interesting relative signal change at the start of the new year. The Materials sector has long been out of favor with money managers, and it didn't generate a Buy signal yet as you can see, but the turn up into a column of X's is from such a low level that one should take notice. $RSPM / $RSP
January 5, 2026 at 1:43 PM
An interesting relative signal change at the start of the new year. The Materials sector has long been out of favor with money managers, and it didn't generate a Buy signal yet as you can see, but the turn up into a column of X's is from such a low level that one should take notice. $RSPM / $RSP
Didn't expect that on day 1. Year of the Midcaps? 👀
January 2, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Didn't expect that on day 1. Year of the Midcaps? 👀
Actually profitable companies comprised in the S&P 400 & 600 (Mid & Small caps) indexes, had a particularly bad year in '25 relatively speaking. This level of gap has happened before, but historically the spread should be expected to narrow.
January 2, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Actually profitable companies comprised in the S&P 400 & 600 (Mid & Small caps) indexes, had a particularly bad year in '25 relatively speaking. This level of gap has happened before, but historically the spread should be expected to narrow.
It's easy to tell when you're on a parabola, but it's hard to tell which part of it.
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
December 29, 2025 at 5:38 PM
It's easy to tell when you're on a parabola, but it's hard to tell which part of it.
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Silver is clearly a parabola. It looks and feels like it might be post peak. I certainly felt that a month ago in the low 50's. Wait for a signal, then short. $SLV $SI/
Between the YE mark-up and non-binding MOU BS, $NVDA was able to reverse the Sell signal on its 2% box size P&F chart. Does make me feel like we might have to wait for the $NDX to give a relative Sell signal before we're good to go to the downside. We'll see what '26 brings.
December 26, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Between the YE mark-up and non-binding MOU BS, $NVDA was able to reverse the Sell signal on its 2% box size P&F chart. Does make me feel like we might have to wait for the $NDX to give a relative Sell signal before we're good to go to the downside. We'll see what '26 brings.
Just was curious what the total return of $BCX has been since that article in 2018. Turns out it's basically matched $SPXEW thanks to this year, and well outperformed $DJP which it was supposed to mimic.
December 24, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Just was curious what the total return of $BCX has been since that article in 2018. Turns out it's basically matched $SPXEW thanks to this year, and well outperformed $DJP which it was supposed to mimic.
Many years ago, I wrote up $BCX as an option for income accounts to also gain exposure to broad commodity returns. I still own some, but after a massive gain this year thanks mostly to the precious metals rip, I've monetized a chunk to reduce my exposure to any regression we see in '26.
December 24, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Many years ago, I wrote up $BCX as an option for income accounts to also gain exposure to broad commodity returns. I still own some, but after a massive gain this year thanks mostly to the precious metals rip, I've monetized a chunk to reduce my exposure to any regression we see in '26.
I've been doing some work on $DEO. It's a bit hard to pin down the exact point, but I think it's in the zone of interest now for a few reasons. There were a few weeks during GFC when on a valuation basis it went even lower, but this is most likely a base zone. We'll see. No position yet.
December 22, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I've been doing some work on $DEO. It's a bit hard to pin down the exact point, but I think it's in the zone of interest now for a few reasons. There were a few weeks during GFC when on a valuation basis it went even lower, but this is most likely a base zone. We'll see. No position yet.
When I went searching through desk drawers for every silver oz coin I could find to sell in the $50's, I didn't expect $SLV to make a new all-time high on the monthly rsi. 😆
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
December 22, 2025 at 3:23 PM
When I went searching through desk drawers for every silver oz coin I could find to sell in the $50's, I didn't expect $SLV to make a new all-time high on the monthly rsi. 😆
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
You rarely top tik and no regrets. Like $METC earlier this year, if I still owned I would at least have a tight stop.
The AI YE rally is in full force. Even flipped $PLTR back to Buy on the 2% box chart. $NVDA still lagging. Needs 188+ to follow.
December 22, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The AI YE rally is in full force. Even flipped $PLTR back to Buy on the 2% box chart. $NVDA still lagging. Needs 188+ to follow.
Looks like Fridays are when the garbage gets picked up.
December 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Looks like Fridays are when the garbage gets picked up.
My $BTC / $RSP signal generated a relative Sell signal yesterday. That's only happened a few times in its short history so far. I put red X's by the time periods when this signal was generated on BTC's chart. Looks like winter has come. Not necessarily down from here, but 1-2 years of sideways min.
December 19, 2025 at 3:53 PM
My $BTC / $RSP signal generated a relative Sell signal yesterday. That's only happened a few times in its short history so far. I put red X's by the time periods when this signal was generated on BTC's chart. Looks like winter has come. Not necessarily down from here, but 1-2 years of sideways min.
For me it was Tortoise a few weeks ago, and Chanukah last night too. Such a good sounding venue, but the cashless bar freaked me out a bit. Was thinking this is a move to make sure no cash bar transactions just wind up in the tip jar?
December 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
For me it was Tortoise a few weeks ago, and Chanukah last night too. Such a good sounding venue, but the cashless bar freaked me out a bit. Was thinking this is a move to make sure no cash bar transactions just wind up in the tip jar?
It would go down as one of the greatest market surprises to me if this Tech bubble continues to collapse with only 9 more trading days to go, after $NDX put up an intra-year rally of basically 60%. Either way, January '26 is going to be extra spicy.
December 17, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It would go down as one of the greatest market surprises to me if this Tech bubble continues to collapse with only 9 more trading days to go, after $NDX put up an intra-year rally of basically 60%. Either way, January '26 is going to be extra spicy.
On a 0-10 scale, if 10 is 'table pounding,' I'm at a 9 on this right now. Just missing a fundamental improvement element economically. $RHI
December 17, 2025 at 3:23 PM
On a 0-10 scale, if 10 is 'table pounding,' I'm at a 9 on this right now. Just missing a fundamental improvement element economically. $RHI
Of course. Even with Quants, Value stinks now.
December 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Of course. Even with Quants, Value stinks now.
Yup. Sorry. I had it set on the per day level versus total, and for some reason China and India weren't on the per day calculation which is weird. They have the same number of days as we do right? ;-)
December 16, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Yup. Sorry. I had it set on the per day level versus total, and for some reason China and India weren't on the per day calculation which is weird. They have the same number of days as we do right? ;-)
This is a really underappreciated point and not just in terms of Russia. If one reduced the price/demand for Oil, then a vast majority of anti-democracy nations would be significantly inhibited in their abilities. Considering the US is the #1 consumer by a massive amount... the ball is in our court.
December 16, 2025 at 3:34 PM
This is a really underappreciated point and not just in terms of Russia. If one reduced the price/demand for Oil, then a vast majority of anti-democracy nations would be significantly inhibited in their abilities. Considering the US is the #1 consumer by a massive amount... the ball is in our court.