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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 23d

Wrote a piece for @theworldtoday.org and @chathamhouse.org on US-China fracturing and what we get wrong about the future of globalisation...

The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 23d

📢Our autumn issue is OUT NOW!

Check out stories about the world order after Trump, new climate thinking ahead of #COP30, the changing views of Israeli society on the war in Gaza and lots more. 🌎

Read here 👉 www.chathamhouse.org/publications...

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · May 22

There's nothing good about high and rising US Treasury yields. The only silver lining is that it shuts down all the #MMT nonsense of recent years, which claimed that "deficits don't matter." Deficits do matter and fiscal space is very much finite. Time for #MMT to finally go the way of the dodo...

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · May 8

Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 30

The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 25

Walk Lincoln Memorial to Congress - stop at Smithsonian if you’ve time. G&T on the terrace at the Willard optional.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 8

Out in August, but available for pre-order in the usual places. More to follow!
www.amazon.co.uk/Fractured-Ag...

The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy

Buy The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy by Shearing, Neil (ISBN: 9781399825726) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

www.amazon.co.uk

Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 8

It will create costs for some, but bring benefits to others - see, for example, Apple’s announcement that it will respond to US tariffs on China by increasing production in India.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 8

It’s the story of how a deepening superpower rivalry between the US and China will reshape the global economy, with implications for everything from trade and capital flows, to technology transfers and efforts to secure critical minerals.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Apr 8

Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Mar 13

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Mar 5

Striking that China has announced a target for REAL GDP growth this year of 5% but the budget docs from today's Work Plan suggest that the government is expecting NOMINAL GDP growth of just ~4.9%. So much for a reflationary recovery.

Reposted by Neil Shearing

Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · Feb 28

“Why don’t you say thank you”

Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · Feb 28

A Russian drone just struck a crowded hospital in Kharkiv. Fire is raging at the site. Rescuers are rushing to the scene.

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · Feb 28

Brexit has never looked quite so daft

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Feb 28

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused.

(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)

Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · Feb 28

You economist idiots with your GDP that includes government spending!

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · Feb 28

My latest - pushing back on the idea that we're witnessing a fundamental geoeconomic realignment. Weird times but there's still more that unites than divides the US and Europe. The big schism remains between the US and China.

www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...

A geoeconomic realignment – or is it? | Capital Economics

Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too.

www.capitaleconomics.com