New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre)
@nestcentre.bsky.social
We bring together the best expertise on Russia and the surrounding region. Based in London and Washington, DC.
https://nestcentre.org/
https://nestcentre.org/
Read our final briefing note of the year. 🗒️ nestcentre.org/year-in-revi...
The analysis highlights the continuity of the regime’s core priorities – the war, the economy, and social and demographic policy – and the continued absence of any articulated long-term development goals.
The analysis highlights the continuity of the regime’s core priorities – the war, the economy, and social and demographic policy – and the continued absence of any articulated long-term development goals.
Year in review: What future does Putin offer Russia?
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
nestcentre.org
December 29, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Read our final briefing note of the year. 🗒️ nestcentre.org/year-in-revi...
The analysis highlights the continuity of the regime’s core priorities – the war, the economy, and social and demographic policy – and the continued absence of any articulated long-term development goals.
The analysis highlights the continuity of the regime’s core priorities – the war, the economy, and social and demographic policy – and the continued absence of any articulated long-term development goals.
"The recent deal on the release of political prisoners struck by Lukashenka and the Trump administration, which led to the partial easing of potash sanctions against Belarus, took place with Moscow’s tacit approval."
Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note 🗒️ nestcentre.org/belarusian-p...
Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note 🗒️ nestcentre.org/belarusian-p...
Belarusian potash: Why the Kremlin is interested in Lukashenka’s deal with the Trump administration
The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in trans...
nestcentre.org
December 22, 2025 at 7:29 PM
"The recent deal on the release of political prisoners struck by Lukashenka and the Trump administration, which led to the partial easing of potash sanctions against Belarus, took place with Moscow’s tacit approval."
Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note 🗒️ nestcentre.org/belarusian-p...
Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note 🗒️ nestcentre.org/belarusian-p...
Missed this week's briefing? Watch it now on YouTube 📽️ 🔗 youtube.com/watch?v=bq6C...
Vytis Jurkonis joined John Lough to discuss the release of 123 Belorussian political prisoners in exchange for limited sanctions relief on potash.
Vytis Jurkonis joined John Lough to discuss the release of 123 Belorussian political prisoners in exchange for limited sanctions relief on potash.
Prisoners for potash: motivations and implications
YouTube video by NEST Centre
youtube.com
December 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Missed this week's briefing? Watch it now on YouTube 📽️ 🔗 youtube.com/watch?v=bq6C...
Vytis Jurkonis joined John Lough to discuss the release of 123 Belorussian political prisoners in exchange for limited sanctions relief on potash.
Vytis Jurkonis joined John Lough to discuss the release of 123 Belorussian political prisoners in exchange for limited sanctions relief on potash.
"Russia hopes to make European governments more cautious, more divided, and more focused on avoiding short-term risks rather than on Ukraine’s long-term security."
Katia Glod, NEST Centre's Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for The i Paper 📰
Katia Glod, NEST Centre's Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for The i Paper 📰
If we surrender to Putin now, he will shape Europe's security for years to come
The Kremlin is taking a bullying, psychological approach drawn straight from the KGB playbook - and it is banking on a hesitant, cautious West backing down
inews.co.uk
December 18, 2025 at 6:26 PM
"Russia hopes to make European governments more cautious, more divided, and more focused on avoiding short-term risks rather than on Ukraine’s long-term security."
Katia Glod, NEST Centre's Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for The i Paper 📰
Katia Glod, NEST Centre's Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for The i Paper 📰
The U.S. and Europe are divided on Belarus’ sanctions - will Russia sanctions be next? Join our mid-week briefing, 'Prisoners for Potash,' as Lithuanian Belarus' expert Vytis Jurkonis joins John Lough.
18 Dec | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST
Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
18 Dec | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST
Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
December 17, 2025 at 2:33 PM
The U.S. and Europe are divided on Belarus’ sanctions - will Russia sanctions be next? Join our mid-week briefing, 'Prisoners for Potash,' as Lithuanian Belarus' expert Vytis Jurkonis joins John Lough.
18 Dec | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST
Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
18 Dec | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST
Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Despite the absence of breakthrough agreements, Putin's recent visit to India sent a clear signal to Washington and Beijing that Moscow and New Delhi continue to preserve room for independent manoeuvre.
Read our latest briefing note on the Russia-India Partnership 🗒️
nestcentre.org/a-partnershi...
Read our latest briefing note on the Russia-India Partnership 🗒️
nestcentre.org/a-partnershi...
A partnership under pressure: Russia, India, and the limits of Western leverage
Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre
nestcentre.org
December 16, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Despite the absence of breakthrough agreements, Putin's recent visit to India sent a clear signal to Washington and Beijing that Moscow and New Delhi continue to preserve room for independent manoeuvre.
Read our latest briefing note on the Russia-India Partnership 🗒️
nestcentre.org/a-partnershi...
Read our latest briefing note on the Russia-India Partnership 🗒️
nestcentre.org/a-partnershi...
In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough, Boris Bondarev and Sarang Shidore 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqby...
The deepening Russia-India relationship
YouTube video by NEST Centre
www.youtube.com
December 15, 2025 at 2:28 PM
In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough, Boris Bondarev and Sarang Shidore 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqby...
"The Russian economy is close to stagnation... [but the Kremlin's] glass is half full."
Sergey Aleksashenko spoke with @cnbc.com on Putin's ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine for two or three more years, despite rising economic pressures.
www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/u...
Sergey Aleksashenko spoke with @cnbc.com on Putin's ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine for two or three more years, despite rising economic pressures.
www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/u...
Putin can fund Ukraine war for years to come, ex-official says as Trump's resolve is tested
Ukraine and its allies are scrambling to keep Trump onside as the U.S. piles pressure on Kyiv to make a peace deal.
www.cnbc.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:18 PM
"The Russian economy is close to stagnation... [but the Kremlin's] glass is half full."
Sergey Aleksashenko spoke with @cnbc.com on Putin's ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine for two or three more years, despite rising economic pressures.
www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/u...
Sergey Aleksashenko spoke with @cnbc.com on Putin's ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine for two or three more years, despite rising economic pressures.
www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/u...
"The Russians want Europeans to believe they are vulnerable and that Russia will ultimately be able to dictate the terms for a new security system in Europe."
NEST Centre's John Lough spoke to @euronews.com on European defence capabilities and Moscow's hybird war.
www.euronews.com/2025/12/11/e...
NEST Centre's John Lough spoke to @euronews.com on European defence capabilities and Moscow's hybird war.
www.euronews.com/2025/12/11/e...
NATO chief lauds Germany as it aims for 'most capable army in Europe'
While Washington seems inclined to tilt towards Moscow, Germany is rearming and may soon have the strongest army in Europe.
www.euronews.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:11 PM
"The Russians want Europeans to believe they are vulnerable and that Russia will ultimately be able to dictate the terms for a new security system in Europe."
NEST Centre's John Lough spoke to @euronews.com on European defence capabilities and Moscow's hybird war.
www.euronews.com/2025/12/11/e...
NEST Centre's John Lough spoke to @euronews.com on European defence capabilities and Moscow's hybird war.
www.euronews.com/2025/12/11/e...
Tomorrow Sarang Shidore and Boris Bondarev join John Lough, to assess the results of Putin's recent visit to India and the current state of the Russia-India relationship.
Midweek Briefing | 11 Dec | 16:00 CET
zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Midweek Briefing | 11 Dec | 16:00 CET
zoom.us/webinar/regi...
December 10, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Tomorrow Sarang Shidore and Boris Bondarev join John Lough, to assess the results of Putin's recent visit to India and the current state of the Russia-India relationship.
Midweek Briefing | 11 Dec | 16:00 CET
zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Midweek Briefing | 11 Dec | 16:00 CET
zoom.us/webinar/regi...
📸 Photos from our recent book talk on 'The Disorderly Society' by Bobo Lo, moderated by NEST's Katia Glod 📸
Watch recording of the discussion now: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmQ...
#GreatPowers #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #BookLaunch
Watch recording of the discussion now: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmQ...
#GreatPowers #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #BookLaunch
December 10, 2025 at 8:01 PM
📸 Photos from our recent book talk on 'The Disorderly Society' by Bobo Lo, moderated by NEST's Katia Glod 📸
Watch recording of the discussion now: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmQ...
#GreatPowers #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #BookLaunch
Watch recording of the discussion now: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmQ...
#GreatPowers #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #BookLaunch
“Russia has to reckon with the fact that Donald Trump has three more years in the White House. Will he be a lame-duck president in a year?”
On Times Radio, John Lough warns Putin doubts MAGA can avoid collapse — shaping Moscow’s stance on any future Ukraine deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKnr...
On Times Radio, John Lough warns Putin doubts MAGA can avoid collapse — shaping Moscow’s stance on any future Ukraine deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKnr...
Putin fears Trump's administration will collapse dooming his invasion of Ukraine
YouTube video by Times Radio
www.youtube.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:13 PM
“Russia has to reckon with the fact that Donald Trump has three more years in the White House. Will he be a lame-duck president in a year?”
On Times Radio, John Lough warns Putin doubts MAGA can avoid collapse — shaping Moscow’s stance on any future Ukraine deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKnr...
On Times Radio, John Lough warns Putin doubts MAGA can avoid collapse — shaping Moscow’s stance on any future Ukraine deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKnr...
"The US President’s comments appear indicative of some alignment between Trump and Putin on their desire to try to remove Zelensky from the game."
John Lough spoke to The I paper on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
John Lough spoke to The I paper on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Trump accused Zelensky of not reading his peace plan. Here's what he's actually doing
The US President's comments may be 'disingenuous' but they are a worrying sign of alignment with Putin, experts warn
inews.co.uk
December 8, 2025 at 9:02 PM
"The US President’s comments appear indicative of some alignment between Trump and Putin on their desire to try to remove Zelensky from the game."
John Lough spoke to The I paper on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
John Lough spoke to The I paper on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough and Mark Galeotti now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FF...
Peace talks: What next?
YouTube video by NEST Centre
www.youtube.com
December 8, 2025 at 2:06 PM
In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough and Mark Galeotti now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FF...
NEST’s latest briefing reveals how the war economy has reshaped the incentives of Russian elites, and why neither beneficiaries nor peace advocates are likely to get the outcome they expect.
nestcentre.org/beneficiarie...
nestcentre.org/beneficiarie...
Beneficiaries of the war versus advocates of peace: Elite expectations and the reality of war
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
nestcentre.org
December 8, 2025 at 1:33 AM
NEST’s latest briefing reveals how the war economy has reshaped the incentives of Russian elites, and why neither beneficiaries nor peace advocates are likely to get the outcome they expect.
nestcentre.org/beneficiarie...
nestcentre.org/beneficiarie...
“There is no reason to believe that the parties will take advantage of the window of opportunity that has arisen, but it is safe to say that they currently have one."
Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Head of Research, in @washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Head of Research, in @washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Confident of military success, Putin refuses compromise in Moscow talks
European officials, who were not included in the talks, said at a NATO meeting in Brussels that Russia appears to be inflexible in the negotiations.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:48 PM
“There is no reason to believe that the parties will take advantage of the window of opportunity that has arisen, but it is safe to say that they currently have one."
Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Head of Research, in @washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Head of Research, in @washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
"We're a very long way away from a deal because there is an enormous gulf here between the two sides."
John Lough spoke to ABC News AU about key sticking points for Russia and Ukraine in ongoing peace negotiations
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
John Lough spoke to ABC News AU about key sticking points for Russia and Ukraine in ongoing peace negotiations
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
Here's what experts say about the Russia–Ukraine peace process
After a flurry of meetings, Russia's war in Ukraine continues. So where is the peace process at?
www.abc.net.au
December 4, 2025 at 3:39 PM
"We're a very long way away from a deal because there is an enormous gulf here between the two sides."
John Lough spoke to ABC News AU about key sticking points for Russia and Ukraine in ongoing peace negotiations
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
John Lough spoke to ABC News AU about key sticking points for Russia and Ukraine in ongoing peace negotiations
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
Russia’s 2012 “May-decree” incentivized officials to reassign causes of death — causing dramatic drops in reported cardiovascular deaths and spikes in dubious categories. As a result, official mortality data may no longer reflect reality.
Read the new analysis → nestcentre.org/how-the-2012...
Read the new analysis → nestcentre.org/how-the-2012...
How the 2012 health decree allows for manipulation with death statistics in Russia
Putin’s 2012 decrees have triggered widespread manipulation of cause-of-death data ever since, with cardiovascular deaths re-coded into other categories to meet political targets
nestcentre.org
December 3, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Russia’s 2012 “May-decree” incentivized officials to reassign causes of death — causing dramatic drops in reported cardiovascular deaths and spikes in dubious categories. As a result, official mortality data may no longer reflect reality.
Read the new analysis → nestcentre.org/how-the-2012...
Read the new analysis → nestcentre.org/how-the-2012...
“If Trump’s plan ultimately fails (which is highly likely), it will not be because the conversation was leaked... I fear that the hype surrounding this leak is greatly exaggerated." — Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Research Director, in the Kyiv Post.
📰 🔗 www.kyivpost.com/post/65167
📰 🔗 www.kyivpost.com/post/65167
Witkoff Advises Ushakov: a Scandal?
A leak by Bloomberg is causing a commotion. The media company has published a dialogue said to be a transcript of a telephone conversation between Steve Witkoff and Putin aide Yuri Ushakov.
www.kyivpost.com
December 2, 2025 at 4:14 PM
“If Trump’s plan ultimately fails (which is highly likely), it will not be because the conversation was leaked... I fear that the hype surrounding this leak is greatly exaggerated." — Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Research Director, in the Kyiv Post.
📰 🔗 www.kyivpost.com/post/65167
📰 🔗 www.kyivpost.com/post/65167
John Lough tells Times Radio the Witkoff leak may have come from inside the GOP: Republicans who oppose Trump’s approach to Ukraine and reject a deal that rewards Russian aggression “stand to gain” from exposing Witkoff’s alignment with Moscow.
🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ljm...
🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ljm...
Trump’s own base may be behind the Witkoff leak
YouTube video by Times Radio
www.youtube.com
December 2, 2025 at 2:56 PM
John Lough tells Times Radio the Witkoff leak may have come from inside the GOP: Republicans who oppose Trump’s approach to Ukraine and reject a deal that rewards Russian aggression “stand to gain” from exposing Witkoff’s alignment with Moscow.
🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ljm...
🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ljm...
Duncan Allan’s new research paper for the NEST Centre unpacks how Russia’s drive to be a “great power” means dismantling the post-1991 order in Europe. He traces the roots of this clash and Moscow’s strategy since 2000.
Read the full paper 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/to-be-a-grea...
Read the full paper 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/to-be-a-grea...
To be a great power: Russia’s quest to destroy the post-1991 order in Europe
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
nestcentre.org
December 1, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Duncan Allan’s new research paper for the NEST Centre unpacks how Russia’s drive to be a “great power” means dismantling the post-1991 order in Europe. He traces the roots of this clash and Moscow’s strategy since 2000.
Read the full paper 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/to-be-a-grea...
Read the full paper 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/to-be-a-grea...
The recording of this week’s NEST Centre midweek briefing is now available. John Lough and Elizaveta Fokht unpack the Kremlin’s negotiating strategy, the risks driving Moscow’s calculations, and what this means for Europe’s security environment.
📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69e...
📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69e...
Does Putin want a peace deal?
YouTube video by NEST Centre
www.youtube.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:16 PM
The recording of this week’s NEST Centre midweek briefing is now available. John Lough and Elizaveta Fokht unpack the Kremlin’s negotiating strategy, the risks driving Moscow’s calculations, and what this means for Europe’s security environment.
📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69e...
📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69e...
"In a prolonged war of attrition, Moscow uses negotiations as an additional tool of pressure rather than a means of reaching compromise."
Read our latest briefing note, 'Negotiations of Attrition' 📃🔗 nestcentre.org/negotiations...
Read our latest briefing note, 'Negotiations of Attrition' 📃🔗 nestcentre.org/negotiations...
Negotiations of attrition: Why the Kremlin is in no hurry to strike a deal on Ukraine
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
nestcentre.org
December 1, 2025 at 3:08 PM
"In a prolonged war of attrition, Moscow uses negotiations as an additional tool of pressure rather than a means of reaching compromise."
Read our latest briefing note, 'Negotiations of Attrition' 📃🔗 nestcentre.org/negotiations...
Read our latest briefing note, 'Negotiations of Attrition' 📃🔗 nestcentre.org/negotiations...
By late November 2025, the Russian economy began to show clear signs of weakness. Industrial decline has intensified, the federal budget is still in deficit, while inflation remains unstable. Read new economic analysis by Sergey Aleksashenko: nestcentre.org/russia-faces...
November 27, 2025 at 8:45 PM
By late November 2025, the Russian economy began to show clear signs of weakness. Industrial decline has intensified, the federal budget is still in deficit, while inflation remains unstable. Read new economic analysis by Sergey Aleksashenko: nestcentre.org/russia-faces...
“I think that there is a question for Putin … whether he wants to miss the opportunity to gain from Trump’s assistance – because at some point Trump’s going to become fed up."
John Lough spoke with CNN's Lauren Kent on the latest push for peace in Ukraine 📰 🔗 www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/e...
John Lough spoke with CNN's Lauren Kent on the latest push for peace in Ukraine 📰 🔗 www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/e...
Could the latest Ukraine talks actually end the war? Here’s what to know | CNN
Meetings in Switzerland. Talks in the United Arab Emirates. A possible Ukrainian presidential visit to the United States.
www.cnn.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:04 PM
“I think that there is a question for Putin … whether he wants to miss the opportunity to gain from Trump’s assistance – because at some point Trump’s going to become fed up."
John Lough spoke with CNN's Lauren Kent on the latest push for peace in Ukraine 📰 🔗 www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/e...
John Lough spoke with CNN's Lauren Kent on the latest push for peace in Ukraine 📰 🔗 www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/e...