Willem
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Willem
@nzwillem.bsky.social
15 followers 90 following 1 posts
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Reposted by Willem
musicalchairs.bsky.social
Favourite chart of the weekend. Scan down to the bottom and find NZ. Note how we can only afford to shovel cash and financial assets into offshore ownership because households go into debt to bid up the price of weatherboard shacks? Compare our profile to Aus or the UK. What do you see?
June 8, 2025 at 5:27 AM
Reposted by Willem
bloomberg.com
Trump’s attack on the Fed and his trade war have called into question US economic dominance and ushered in a sell-America trade
Markets Are Discovering the Real Trump Trade Is ‘Sell America’
The president’s attacks on the Fed are pushing the world further off its American axis, as governments and investors lose confidence in the US dollar and bonds.
bloom.bg
April 21, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Reposted by Willem
musicalchairs.bsky.social
Few DMs to answer 🧵
Here's how NZ dollars flow into our bank accounts.
When Govt spend more than they tax, we own more dollars.
When banks lend us more dollars than we repay, we own more dollars.
This is possible because Govt and banks create loadsa brand new $$$ everyday. Notes in ALT [1/n]
graphic representing the text above - deficit spending adds to private sector balances, so does net bank lending (loans net of repayments). when we run a current account deficit with the rest of the world, we lose dollars. Note that Govt Bonds are considered equivalent to cash here because they are redeemable as cash and backed by the Crown.
April 5, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Reposted by Willem
jessedjenkins.com
Michael Cembalest heads market investment strategy for JP Morgan Asset Management & writes the Eye on the Market report which is always worth reading. Here's his note today on the impacts of Trump Admin policy decisions in a brutal, concise, accurate way.

The #StateOfTheUnion is not so strong...
A few words on yesterday’s tariff announcements. In the 2025 Outlook, I wrote the following about the incoming Administration, whom I described as the Alchemists: “The Alchemists aim to break something, whether it’s globalization, the Federal bureaucracy, the IRS, the FBI, Medicare, US vaccine policy, lax US border policies, its Deep State opponents or something else. Whatever the goals, I take the Alchemists at their word: they are going to break something, I just don’t know what. For investors, there’s little room for error with valuations this high and since valuations are now driving markets just as much as earnings growth. While US equity markets should end the year higher than they began, I expect a 10%-15% correction at some point in 2025 as the Alchemists apply their elixirs to the US economy”. Since the inauguration, the Administration has upended decades of US trade policy and raised tariffs to the highest levels in ~50 years, it has wiped out billions in market capitalization for diagnostic tool and genomics companies due to NIH funding cuts, it launched a Section 232 investigation to justify higher tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports at a time of almost all-time lows in US housing affordability, its policy announcements were followed by a collapse in small business capital spending plans close to the lowest levels since 1976 (other than during the Financial Crisis and Double-Dip 1980 recession), its reconciliation bill will expand budgets deficits given insufficient revenues to offset tax cuts, and during one of the worst measles outbreaks in decades, the HHS Secretary wrote that “good nutrition remains a best defense against most chronic and infectious diseases”. After having raised the cost of productive goods through tariffs, it now reportedly plans to lower the cost of unproductive ones by arguing for zero capital gains taxes on crypto. Sounds like my forecast is right on track. Michael Cembalest JP Morgan Asset Management
March 5, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Reposted by Willem
matthewfacciani.bsky.social
“It is hard to put into words the extent of the damage being done to the US research enterprise, which is of almost incalculable value to both the nation itself and the wider world.”
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Trump 2.0: an assault on science anywhere is an assault on science everywhere
US President Donald Trump is taking a wrecking ball to science and to international institutions. The global research community must take a stand against these attacks.
www.nature.com
February 28, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Reposted by Willem
svartflagg.bsky.social
Running thread of people trying to normalize the sieg heil. It's not an "Elon gesture", it's not autism, it's not your heart going out, it's not parody or trolling. It's fucking despicable. Don't ever let this shit become normal. Fuck any excuse given, there is none. Zero tolerance.

1. Elon Musk
February 22, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Reposted by Willem
marlat.bsky.social
Proud of us New Zealand! Now let's go at this government for their silence on genocide with the same rigour!!! Shame them for making us complicit in international war crimes! #nzpol #EveryoneMustGo

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...
New Zealand’s ‘Everyone must go!’ tourism campaign ridiculed as emigration hits record high
Tagline has quickly become the subject of derision, with some critics likening it to a clearance sale slogan
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Join our New Year & Network drinks with the Dutch and New Zealand business community!

Great opportunity to meet new people, discuss New Zealand business opportunities and enjoy a few drinks!

#TheNetherlands#NewZealand#Network#Global#Business#Innovation

www.linkedin.com/posts/dutchb...
Dutch Business Association in New Zealand (DBANZ) on LinkedIn: Join our New Year & Network drinks with the Dutch Business Association in…
Join our New Year & Network drinks with the Dutch Business Association in Auckland! Register now!
www.linkedin.com
February 16, 2025 at 8:14 AM