3/

5/ I’m very honored that this piece was published by
@unitartupress.bsky.social's De Facto States Research Unit, whose work has shaped this field for years: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

4/ The key lesson from NK’s experience: don’t procrastinate. Stay vigilant as the world changes, and engage pragmatically with conflicts that are far from resolved.

3/ These reflections are not only for niche experts, but for anyone thinking about the future of similar entities - including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

2/ In the blog I examine what happens when your main external supporter disappears, you fail to find new ones, and there’s no presence/effective engagement with international organizations.

See this white device in #GEOLocalElections2025? It acknowledges a key flaw in last year’s parliamentary vote: the machines failed to ensure secrecy, letting the ruling party control results. The opposition even demanded new elections, which Georgian Dream still refuses.

One of today’s stunning moments from local elections: Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of ruling Georgian Dream, froze when a journalist shouted a question about possible new UK sanctions. U.S. sanctions have already cost him a good part of his fortune.

8/ Whatever happens next, the Washington summit has already made history. Its biggest achievement: raising confidence that another war in the South Caucasus is not imminent - if not for decades, then at least for the coming months and perhaps years. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

7/ And yes, there’s still a talk of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. If that happens, he might even show up in DCAF's next crosswords of the winners! (You can test your knowledge here: dcaf.ch/sites/defaul...)

6/ But the biggest factor is still Turkey. If Ankara does not agree to open its border with Armenia, the “peace through transit” vision will remain incomplete. Talks between Armenian & Turkish delegations are expected soon - and could be decisive.

5/ Much will depend on whether the EU steps in with funds for infrastructure. Just last week, the EU Special Representative’s team toured the region to explore options.

4/ On the transit route, the real challenge is still ahead. The devil is very much in the details - those can either make the deal work or sink it entirely.

3/ The treaty also implies ending legal disputes at international courts and likely beginning talks on the future of the EU Mission in Armenia - possibly downsized & re-focused to avoid angering Baku.

2/ The piece offers insights into how the summit came together. One major outcome: initiation of a peace treaty. Not the final step, but Baku & Yerevan can now start discussing appointing ambassadors - likely first based outside each other’s capitals, perhaps even in Tbilisi.

12/ Whether it ends in a handshake or another deadlock, this DC meeting will be a turning point - hopefully for better, not worse - in the decades-long Armenia–Azerbaijan saga.

📷 The White House