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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 7d

See this white device in #GEOLocalElections2025? It acknowledges a key flaw in last year’s parliamentary vote: the machines failed to ensure secrecy, letting the ruling party control results. The opposition even demanded new elections, which Georgian Dream still refuses.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 7d

One of today’s stunning moments from local elections: Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of ruling Georgian Dream, froze when a journalist shouted a question about possible new UK sanctions. U.S. sanctions have already cost him a good part of his fortune.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · 7d

Georgians are still showing they’re able and willing to protest. Even as the regime jails dozens and imposes huge fines just for appearing in the street. #GeorgiaProtests

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 26d

This week in the newsletter: @nateschenkkan.bsky.social on assassinations, abductions and other forms of transnational repression

thehundred.substack.com/p/how-dictat...

How Dictators Hunt Enemies Abroad

#92: With Nate Schenkkan

thehundred.substack.com

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

8/ Whatever happens next, the Washington summit has already made history. Its biggest achievement: raising confidence that another war in the South Caucasus is not imminent - if not for decades, then at least for the coming months and perhaps years. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace?

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

carnegieendowment.org

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

7/ And yes, there’s still a talk of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. If that happens, he might even show up in DCAF's next crosswords of the winners! (You can test your knowledge here: dcaf.ch/sites/defaul...)

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

6/ But the biggest factor is still Turkey. If Ankara does not agree to open its border with Armenia, the “peace through transit” vision will remain incomplete. Talks between Armenian & Turkish delegations are expected soon - and could be decisive.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

5/ Much will depend on whether the EU steps in with funds for infrastructure. Just last week, the EU Special Representative’s team toured the region to explore options.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

4/ On the transit route, the real challenge is still ahead. The devil is very much in the details - those can either make the deal work or sink it entirely.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

3/ The treaty also implies ending legal disputes at international courts and likely beginning talks on the future of the EU Mission in Armenia - possibly downsized & re-focused to avoid angering Baku.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

2/ The piece offers insights into how the summit came together. One major outcome: initiation of a peace treaty. Not the final step, but Baku & Yerevan can now start discussing appointing ambassadors - likely first based outside each other’s capitals, perhaps even in Tbilisi.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Sep 11

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Aug 19

"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate."

Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social

OBCT @balcanicaucaso.org · Aug 19

Il fallimento della missione russa di peacekeeping nel Caucaso meridionale evidenzia la necessità di mandati chiari e forti, sorretti da ampie garanzie e allineati ai principi internazionali. Diversamente si rischia la stessa sorte della piccola regione del Nagorno Karabakh che è sparita dalle mappe

Nagorno Karabakh, il fallimento dei peacekeeper russi

Il recente fallimento della missione russa di peacekeeping nel Caucaso meridionale evidenzia la necessità di mandati chiari e forti, sorretti da ampie garanzie e allineati ai principi internazionali.…

buff.ly

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

EVN Report @evnreport.bsky.social · Aug 12

Washington’s signing ceremony holds the promise of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real work—steady, patient and far from the cameras—is only beginning, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.

Beyond the Ceremony: The Real Test for Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace

This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,

evnreport.com

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

Sonja Schiffers @sonjaschiffers.bsky.social · Aug 8

Great thread on the significance of and challenges ahead of of today's Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in D.C. ⬇️

Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

1/ If you’re enjoying your summer, Donald Trump is about to interrupt it - possibly with significant news.

He’s expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Oval Office this week. The goal: a handshake after 30+ years of conflict. But much remains uncertain. 🧵

📷 by AFP

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Reposted by Olesya Vartanyan

Batumelebi&Netgazeti @netgazeti.org · Aug 5

🗣️“The activation of the U.S. is particularly important for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, more broadly, for the South Caucasus,” says Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on South Caucasus affairs, aboutWashington’s initiative to improve relations between Baku and Yerevan.

#SouthCaucasus
#Caucasus

"U.S. Involvement in Baku-Yerevan Talks Is Good News for the South Caucasus" — Olesya Vartanyan - Batumelebi

Stories from the South Caucasus •

batumelebi.netgazeti.ge

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

12/ Whether it ends in a handshake or another deadlock, this DC meeting will be a turning point - hopefully for better, not worse - in the decades-long Armenia–Azerbaijan saga.

📷 The White House

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

11/ Still, this is a historic moment.

It’s the Armenian PM’s first Oval Office visit - despite strong ties with the Biden administration, Pashinyan had never made it there.

More notably, no Armenian or Azerbaijani leaders have ever held a joint meeting at the White House.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

10/ Meanwhile, plenty of risks remain. Armenia and Azerbaijan have a much longer history of broken deals and wars than of successful diplomacy.

Recall: the April 2016 escalation followed a failed U.S.-led summit.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

9/ One open question: who pays for all this?

Armenia had looked to the EU to support road rehabilitation. But with Brussels playing a limited role in current negotiations, it’s unclear who would fund infrastructure on the ground.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

8/ Here too, views diverge:

▪️Azerbaijan wants to prioritize the so-called Zangezur corridor in southern Armenia.

▪️Armenia wants all its borders reopened - shut by Turkey and Azerbaijan since the 1990s.

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

7/ Another likely announcement in DC: transport routes through Armenia.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration proposed that a U.S. private company help facilitate new South Caucasus transit links. www.civilnet.am/en/news/9651...

U.S. proposal for Armenia-Azerbaijan route is a broad concept, not a finalized plan, expert says - CIVILNET

By Elen Muradyan The United States has presented only a broad conceptual outline—not a finalized plan—for managing a prospective transit route through Armenia’s Syunik province, said South Caucasus co...

www.civilnet.am

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

6/ Will Armenia consider that enough? That depends on Turkey. Three years ago, Armenia and Turkey agreed to start normalizing ties - borders, trade, and more. But the process was blocked by Azerbaijan.

No peace deal - no open border. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Armenia Is Seeking to Normalize Relations With Turkiye

Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent another military flare-up along its ten...

carnegieendowment.org

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Olesya Vartanyan @olesyavart.bsky.social · Aug 6

5/ Despite that, there are signs of movement.

Aliyev recently said Azerbaijan may agree to initiate - though not sign - the peace deal, preserving the current text.

It’s still an important step that offers hope for stability in a region still prone to flare-ups. president.az/en/articles/...

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