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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 23

oc-media.org/opinion-my-f... Gulnara Mehdiyeva hits the nail on the head: "If Armenia & Azerbaijan have initialled a text that condemns intolerance & racial hatred, then jailing a researcher whose work has been about refusing hatred is an error that must be corrected." Bahruz Samadov must be freed.

https://oc-media.org/opinion-my-friend-bahruz-is-in-prison-for-advocating-peace-now-thats-state-policy/"If

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 13

www.chathamhouse.org/2025/08/us-i... My latest, on the Washington peace summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

US intervention opens new page in Armenia–Azerbaijan peace talks but challenges remain

Regional powers and domestic politics threaten the persuasive optics of the White House summit.

www.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by Laurence Broers

Ramesh Ganohariti @rameshg.bsky.social · Aug 12

My first book, which discusses Sub-State Recognition, & co-authored with @gezimvisoka.bsky.social, is out now!
#DeFactoStates
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 12

chaotic2000s.blogspot.com/2025/08/a-fe... If you only read one take on the Washington DC Armenia-Azerbaijan deal, make sure it is this one by the invariably insightful @drkevorko.bsky.social

A Few Words about that 'Peace Summit' in DC

The past few days have seen a considerable amount of (somewhat premature) euphoria regarding a 'peace summit' in Washington DC between Donal...

chaotic2000s.blogspot.com

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 11

The sides had announced the completion of this text on 13 March already, and now it has President Trump’s formal blessing

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 11

www.mfa.am/en/press-rel... Text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization agreement initialled in Washington on Friday now published - NB this was the product of bilateral negotiations without mediation and this isn’t yet signed - but the contents presumably now locked in.

Publication of the initialed Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan

By mutual agreement, the initialed Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan is published.

www.mfa.am

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

top-center.org/en/analytics... Here is a cautiously optimistic perspective from Gulkhanim Mammadova on yesterday’s summit.

A historic pivot in Armenia and Azerbaijan: the promise of peace and the road ahead

On August 8, in an unexpected yet very symbolic venue, the White House, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint memorandum to show their commitment to p...

top-center.org

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a... Iran registers its concern regarding the TRIPP… this was inevitable.

Iran and Russia stand to lose from US deal with Azerbaijan and Armenia

Trump-brokered peace treaty predicted to suffocate geopolitical influence of Washington’s rivals in region

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Laurence Broers

Joshua Kucera @joshuakucera.bsky.social · Aug 9

Having watched the ceremony and read the text that they signed, a few additional thoughts. tl;dr: it was a positive event, but a lot of pitfalls lie ahead.

Joshua Kucera @joshuakucera.bsky.social · Aug 8

Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

What are the variables in terms of how it's managed? No doubt that nothing chokes Arm-Az dialogue quicker than historical grievances so my mind is open on this. But 2 context-specific problems are the culture of memory around genocide in Armenia and victory-related legitimacy in Azerbaijan.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Thanks Nicolas, that's a good TLDR summing up!

Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Be that as it may, these issues will not disappear. They will resurface, sometimes in unpredictable ways, and their eventual acknowledgment is the best antidote to revanche.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

There are arguments that pragmatism is needed to convert a crucial window of opportunity today, that can allow a different environment for these issues to be dealt with tomorrow.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

While this is a premise we can all get behind, it also seems to be the case that today’s vision of peace also rejects & excludes the realms of memory and justice. We seem to bear witness to an Armenian-Azerbaijani pacto de olvido – an agreement not to raise the past as a route to a better future.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Beyond specifics, I already noted that our whole lexicon for discussing Armenian-Azerbaijani peace is now about logistics, transit, connectivity & other externalities. The last words of yesterday’s Joint Declaration say “We resolutely reject & exclude any attempt of revenge, now & in the future.”

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre... The European Union is firmly committed, if by force of geography alone, yet it is sidelined in the reported agreements, which it nevertheless immediately affirmed yesterday. EU support can + should be leveraged to broaden and deepen stakes in success.

Armenia/Azerbaijan: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the initialling of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty

The EU issued a statement, welcoming the initialling of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty.

www.consilium.europa.eu

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Geopolitical branding also suggests the contingent & conjunctural nature of US interest, rather than a multi-actor, long-term Western investment in peace in the South Caucasus. If the US inserts itself now, will it remain committed when the problems & snags build up as they inevitably will?

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202... These insertions are inevitably conjunctural and do not last. Indigenous peace is what can last and here what’s crucial is the bilateral dynamic since 2023 that made yesterday possible (as argued here).

As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits

Whether the Washington summit marks a breakthrough or distraction will depend on both leaders’ commitment to finish what they started.

carnegieendowment.org

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

For this reason I am cautious about ‘Pax Americana’ framings. Projects to stabilize Armenian-Azerbaijani violence have traditionally involved external insertion: Bolsheviks in 1920-23, Euro-Atlantic axis in the 1990s, Russia & Turkey in 2020 and now the US in 2025.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... If Iran has so far been measured, Russia has already condemned the interference of 'non-regional' actors and claiming its ideas originated in its own trilateral discussions with Armenia & Azerbaijan. We should expect more and sustained Russian hostility to the TRIPP plan.

mid.ru

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

But let’s now consider some of the possible snags. First, in a fractured & competitive environment, geopolitical action invites geopolitical reaction. There are two possible spoilers in this plan – Russia & Iran – both of which are embedded in the Caucasus & have numerous levers that they can use.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Avoidance of a Russian monopoly on managing the conflict between them (ironically the situation which the Second Karabakh War ended in) has always been the least ambiguous consensual position shared by Baku & Yerevan, and a sine qua non of their sovereignty.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

The TRIPP agreement clearly aspires to definitively superseding Article 9 of the 10 November 2020 Ceasefire Statement, which mandated the Russian military supervision over the Syunik route.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

It certainly looks like American involvement will be limited to the TRIPP, which is sure to be seized upon by Armenian critics who will see the TRIPP as embedding unequal transit rights.

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Laurence Broers @laurencebroers.bsky.social · Aug 9

Yet what reciprocity means remains vague: “reciprocal benefits for international & intra-state connectivity for the Republic of Armenia.” This points to 2 areas of uncertainty: what, in the end, will be the modalities of transit across the TRIPP, & will these modalities be unique to that route?

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