Dan Sanchez
@oriolesreview.bsky.social
Following the progress of the #Orioles organization from the bottom up. Occasional #Mets posts. Sporadic #coyg posts.
📰 -> oriolesreview.com
📰 -> oriolesreview.com
Yeah, I agree. 1/5.25M is exactly what I was expecting, Mounty probably worth slightly less. Orioles probably need to eat 2-3M to move him for a 35+ to 40 FV guy.
December 12, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Yeah, I agree. 1/5.25M is exactly what I was expecting, Mounty probably worth slightly less. Orioles probably need to eat 2-3M to move him for a 35+ to 40 FV guy.
No joke I think that is a really useful thing to consider when all of this is really blunt and unscientific anyway
December 12, 2025 at 12:43 AM
No joke I think that is a really useful thing to consider when all of this is really blunt and unscientific anyway
Dipped into AJ Preller’s supply at the Winter Meetings
December 12, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Dipped into AJ Preller’s supply at the Winter Meetings
Inflation will increase the cost of future wins but you could argue the value of of a win in 5 years is lower than the value of a win now. All considered, I think $10M is a fine benchmark.
December 12, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Inflation will increase the cost of future wins but you could argue the value of of a win in 5 years is lower than the value of a win now. All considered, I think $10M is a fine benchmark.
It really depends, there are a few different calculations. Some people still use $8M/WAR but that doesn’t include relievers. $10M does. Higher figures account for inflation and other factors. $10M is middle ground and a simple benchmark so I tend to use it.
December 12, 2025 at 12:37 AM
It really depends, there are a few different calculations. Some people still use $8M/WAR but that doesn’t include relievers. $10M does. Higher figures account for inflation and other factors. $10M is middle ground and a simple benchmark so I tend to use it.
I think teams are more willing to take that bet on a guy who can provide some defensive value and move around the grass, but they’re not far off.
December 12, 2025 at 12:24 AM
I think teams are more willing to take that bet on a guy who can provide some defensive value and move around the grass, but they’re not far off.
All the juicy and embarrassing parts are going to be aggregated across the internet in a very short news cycle, and the writing is shit. Why would anyone pay for the book?
December 12, 2025 at 12:07 AM
All the juicy and embarrassing parts are going to be aggregated across the internet in a very short news cycle, and the writing is shit. Why would anyone pay for the book?
Turns out dunk-based book purchasing doesn’t quite work the same as dunk-based Twitter engagement.
December 12, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Turns out dunk-based book purchasing doesn’t quite work the same as dunk-based Twitter engagement.
Not at all. I think I do, not necessarily because I think he has a higher ceiling but because I think he’s younger, the contract will age better and he’ll be valuable longer.
December 12, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Not at all. I think I do, not necessarily because I think he has a higher ceiling but because I think he’s younger, the contract will age better and he’ll be valuable longer.
That angle creates a mismatch with the steep swings we see in the modern game, and makes his FB very hard to square up and lift.
There are things to like about his secondaries and some reason to be skeptical, but the shape and slot of his fastball should give him a solid floor/upside combo.
There are things to like about his secondaries and some reason to be skeptical, but the shape and slot of his fastball should give him a solid floor/upside combo.
December 11, 2025 at 11:58 PM
That angle creates a mismatch with the steep swings we see in the modern game, and makes his FB very hard to square up and lift.
There are things to like about his secondaries and some reason to be skeptical, but the shape and slot of his fastball should give him a solid floor/upside combo.
There are things to like about his secondaries and some reason to be skeptical, but the shape and slot of his fastball should give him a solid floor/upside combo.
The best FB comps are Joe Ryan and Luis Castillo. And as the article points out, it’s structural, not manufactured. Most guys cannot accomplish that combo of velo and release point.
In short: he throws hard & fills the top of the zone from a low 5’0 release point, creating a flatter approach angle.
In short: he throws hard & fills the top of the zone from a low 5’0 release point, creating a flatter approach angle.
December 11, 2025 at 11:58 PM
The best FB comps are Joe Ryan and Luis Castillo. And as the article points out, it’s structural, not manufactured. Most guys cannot accomplish that combo of velo and release point.
In short: he throws hard & fills the top of the zone from a low 5’0 release point, creating a flatter approach angle.
In short: he throws hard & fills the top of the zone from a low 5’0 release point, creating a flatter approach angle.
There’s no algorithm. I think winning the World Series just means no regrets. I’ve made the case that if you believe the ~3 marginal wins he adds are wins 85-88 or 87-90 then you should value them more than otherwise.
And I’m already saying paying $155M for $100M market value production is fine.
And I’m already saying paying $155M for $100M market value production is fine.
December 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
There’s no algorithm. I think winning the World Series just means no regrets. I’ve made the case that if you believe the ~3 marginal wins he adds are wins 85-88 or 87-90 then you should value them more than otherwise.
And I’m already saying paying $155M for $100M market value production is fine.
And I’m already saying paying $155M for $100M market value production is fine.
FGDC (steamer with depth charts playing time allotment) projects Alonso with 3 WAR, so the “you can live with it” 10 WAR outcome is probably the median.
December 11, 2025 at 10:54 PM
FGDC (steamer with depth charts playing time allotment) projects Alonso with 3 WAR, so the “you can live with it” 10 WAR outcome is probably the median.
If the WAR total dips below 10 it’s a bust. You’re either not getting a single season of equal or surplus value or you’re getting multiple years close to replacement level.
December 11, 2025 at 10:47 PM
If the WAR total dips below 10 it’s a bust. You’re either not getting a single season of equal or surplus value or you’re getting multiple years close to replacement level.
They’re really still doing this, huh?
December 11, 2025 at 9:51 PM
They’re really still doing this, huh?
Also it looks like PHI copy/pasted the Orioles offer and then the Orioles copy/pasted it for Pete but added one (1) million dollars per year.
December 11, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Also it looks like PHI copy/pasted the Orioles offer and then the Orioles copy/pasted it for Pete but added one (1) million dollars per year.
Phillies did this with Schwarber but weirdly half the bonus is paid out at the end of spring and the other half at the end of the season. 🤷♂️
December 11, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Phillies did this with Schwarber but weirdly half the bonus is paid out at the end of spring and the other half at the end of the season. 🤷♂️
Williams? Sure, if they needed to they could probably trade him at any point in the contract unless he was hurt or awful for a while. He's young enough with good enough stuff and track record that teams would be interested.
December 11, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Williams? Sure, if they needed to they could probably trade him at any point in the contract unless he was hurt or awful for a while. He's young enough with good enough stuff and track record that teams would be interested.
I do, too. Pete is a safer bet to sustain his success than Davis was, and hopefully he has access to a better/more supportive coaching and dev team. But historically, guys in this general bucket tend to end up aging like Davis much more often than like Cruz. But we'll see.
December 11, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I do, too. Pete is a safer bet to sustain his success than Davis was, and hopefully he has access to a better/more supportive coaching and dev team. But historically, guys in this general bucket tend to end up aging like Davis much more often than like Cruz. But we'll see.
That would be amazing and make him a huge boost to the org, but I wouldn't say Cruz aged so much as beat all reasonable expectations by finding a new peak late in his career. He's the guy everyone always brings up but is kind of the exception that proves the rule.
December 11, 2025 at 6:13 PM
That would be amazing and make him a huge boost to the org, but I wouldn't say Cruz aged so much as beat all reasonable expectations by finding a new peak late in his career. He's the guy everyone always brings up but is kind of the exception that proves the rule.