I’m confident that new chapters of success, public service, and dedication to the United States lie ahead for you.

Together, we always achieve more.
That’s why this country became great — and why it’s called the United States, not the Divided States.

I want to express my deep support —
For the work we’ve shared,
For your professionalism,
And for your ability to remain people of great heart in a field not known for sentimentality.

Diplomacy is not just a profession —
It’s a state of mind, a calling of the heart, and a true vocation.

But the feeling we carried was the same as many of you have today:
The support of the people we served, and the enormous pride in the work we had done.

Five years ago, there was no applause when I and dozens of my colleagues walked out of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry with our heads held high. Some were met with police and arrests shortly after their departure.
Many others — with forced exile abroad.

I wrote about this taxi ride and my analytic failure. In the end, Harvard admitted me. To this day, I sincerely think that my taxi driver deserved my spot more than I did. I regret not taking his number to get his opinion from time to time.

So, how about @harvard.edu ? In 2023, I felt I needed a new challenge/chapter in my career and applied. One of the essay prompts was: “Describe a time when interactions with others caused you to change your mind.”

The jam cleared and I made it to my conference on time. I didn’t change my speech at the panel and stayed a skeptic. Today I often tell this story about the Ukrainian taxi driver who forecasted the war better than all the Western intelligence and analysts, including me.

The driver laughed: “I don’t know if General Milley has ever been to Ukraine’s front lines. I was there in 2014, when Russia first attacked us. We endured. No doubt we will endure again. Russia is much weaker than it wants you to think.”

My assessment wasn’t based just on open sources and personal feelings. I had two contacts in European defense ministries, and both confirmed Milley’s conclusion. Plus, some EU countries back then didn’t even believe Putin would dare to launch a full-scale invasion.

I admired his self-confidence but politely disagreed:
- Well, Western intel believes Ukraine can hold for only a few days. Gen. Milley predicts Kyiv falls within 72 hours. Russia has invested billions in modernizing its army, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers at the border.

At that time, Russian troops were already massed on Ukraine’s border, and people anxiously discussed the prospects of war. Suddenly my driver broke the ice:
- Just let them attack! They will fail! We can repel them!

After leaving the diplomatic service, I began a new career as a political analyst, focusing on the region’s foreign and domestic policy. One day I had to speak at a conference on Eastern Europe’s security in the EU. On the way to the airport, I got stuck in a traffic jam.

First, some context. In 2020, Lukashenka stole the Belarusian elections. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets, and the harshest repression since Stalin began. I was a diplomat and resigned in protest. My family and I had to flee to Ukraine, settling in Lviv.

One of yesterday's big stories was the surprise release of political prisoners by the illegitimate "president" of Belarus.

Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.