George Pearkes
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peark.es
George Pearkes
@peark.es
51K followers 870 following 77K posts
No longer Bluesky’s only resident finance bro | Macro Strategist | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto, For The Crown. | 🇺🇸 via 🇨🇦. Not 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿. | Normal man, one of the Normal Men

*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG

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peark.es
A Duke sicko
November 30, 2025 at 4:52 AM
peark.es
Despite being the son of two Stanford grads we are pulling for Cal tonight because if this result holds your Duke Blue Devils will return to the ACC Championship game.
Box score showing Cal up 17-7 on SMU
November 30, 2025 at 2:11 AM
peark.es
Y’all I think I have an idea of what happened to that MTG bird.
=°reddit v r/FoodCrimes 1d Parent's Microwaved Thanksgiving Turkey Join • • • 3/5
November 29, 2025 at 7:34 PM
peark.es
It's pretty astounding how wide the error bars around load growth over the next 5 years look.
heatmap.news/am/georgia-d...
1. Canceled data centers shave gigawatts off a utility giant’s project pipeline In just the last three months, Georgia Power has removed 6 gigawatts of projected demand from its 2030s forecasts — enough to serve every household in the Atlanta metropolitan area more than three times over, according to a filing Friday with the Georgia Public Service Commission. The cause: canceled or postponed data center developments. Projects totaling nearly 6 gigawatts of projected demand by the mid 2030s fell off the books. Of the 28 large power user projects the Southern Company-owned utility disclosed in its report to regulators, 18 have broken ground and 10 are pending constructions. That indicates that the developers are pushing to make sure they advance, and suggests the dip in the last quarter may not extend. In the report, Utility Dive noted, Georgia Power said the “majority of new generation” the company wanted approval for was “not backed by” contracts with large power users.
November 28, 2025 at 11:32 AM
peark.es
All ̶p̶o̶l̶i̶t̶i̶c̶s̶ trading venues are local
CME Outage May Be Linked to CyrusOne Data Center Near Chicago 5:31:40 AM Here's the latest on the CME outage: *CME: BROKERTEC EU MARKETS ARE OPEN, TRADING; ALL OTHERS HALTED While CyrusOne hasn't made a statement about the disruption, it says its Aurora data center campus just outside of Chicago is home to CME Group's trading platform. The company touts the campus's advanced cooling technology, but the racket from those systems has raised local residents' ire. The Chicago Tribune reported last month that Aurora and the company reached a deal to address concerns over noise after the city issued a moratorium on new data centers. CyrusOne says its taken a number of steps to mitigate the problem, including installing temporary chiller panels around the facilities earlier this month. Given that the CME blames a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, it seems like these issues might be linked. Jake Rudnitsky Technology Editor
November 28, 2025 at 10:48 AM
peark.es
Lol
anisota.net/harvest/
Unique Interactions ①］ 7,618 Total Unique 189% above average 200 Mentioned 2,995 Replied To Infinity% above average 6,535 Liked Infinity% above average 1,793 Reposted Infinity% above average 1,027 Quoted Infinity% above average
November 28, 2025 at 1:10 AM
peark.es
Plate pic
A plate loaded with turkey, cranberry sauce, stuffing, sweet potato, green beans, and black beans & rice
November 27, 2025 at 9:02 PM
peark.es
Okay this should be recoverable. We’ll see how it goes.
The tip of a turkey sticking out of a stock pot full of boiling oil Same stock pot tented with aluminum foil.
November 27, 2025 at 7:12 PM
peark.es
I want y’all to put the word out that we back up.
November 27, 2025 at 6:20 PM
peark.es
The meal before the meal
A huge charcuterie board
November 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
peark.es
Hats off to Cintra for this trade, holy smokes. And no, I don’t feel particularly bad for the commuters who drive from Mooresville to Charlotte every day and pay as much as $25 to squeeze in an extra half hour hitting snooze.

charlotteledger.substack.com/p/ncdot-want...
Despite some skeptics questioning the project's feasibility last decade, the I-77 toll lanes appear to be doing gangbusters financially. The toll lanes cost roughly $650 million to build, with the state chipping in roughly $90 million. The lanes have generated roughly $370 million in total revenue since 2019, and the amount of money collected shows no signs of leveling off. The toll lanes generated $35.1 million in revenue for the second quarter of 2025. That's a nearly 30% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024. Cintra has a 50-year contract to manage the lanes.
November 27, 2025 at 4:31 PM
peark.es
It’s extremely noteworthy that the sell side is now aggressivrly arguing for bad outcomes from AI capex. On the other hand buying a chart that looks like this is tough. Either way ORCL CDS are still very rich for any significant adverse scenario.
Near-vertical chart of ORCL CDS spread
November 27, 2025 at 1:07 PM
peark.es
I had missed this earlier this week but FAT Brands is likely headed for Chapter 11. This will mark the third whole business securitization BK since the GFC to end in default.

Further reading: octus.com/resources/ar...

Further further reading: newsletter.cobaltintelligence.com/p/fat-brands...
(Bloomberg) -- FAT Brands Inc., the owner of restaurant chains Fatburger, Johnny Rockets and Twin Peaks, warned it could be forced to file for bankruptcy after creditors called for a full repayment on its roughly $1.2 billion of whole business securitization debt. The demand came in the form of default notices that debtholders sent the FAT Brands after it failed to make interest payments due in October, the company said in a filing on Friday. A full repayment "may ultimately force the company or its subsidiaries to seek bankruptcy protection," FAT Brands said in the filing. The company and its creditors had been working with advisers to discuss a potential restructuring of the debt.
November 27, 2025 at 2:44 AM
peark.es
Old enough to remember Very Serious Journalists who lapped up the Nuzzi piece on Biden last summer as gospel and if you think anyone in that category is going to offer a mea culpa you’ve got another thing coming.
In June, Olivia was working on two big things: a profile of Joe Biden's cognitive decline and a strategy memo to help Bobby revive his dying campaign. Bobby was excluded from the CNN presidential debate on June 24, 2024, and he planned a livestream instead in which he would respond in real time to the Trump-Biden event. Olivia had major concerns about the Kennedy campaign's plan, which she thought would look gimmicky and diminish Bobby, and she drew up what she considered a much better approach. She included demographic data about who Bobby could reach, explained that he needed to rise above looking petty and aggrieved by complaining about being excluded by CNN, offered advice about how to package short clips from the event on social media, urged him to prescreen audience questions, and told him to wear a blue suit. The contrast, she urged, should be that Bobby is "Rocky," while Biden and Trump are "Rocky and Bullwinkle." She also advised that Bobby offer Fox News an exclusive interview in the run-up to the event and dictate all sorts of terms, including the on-screen chyrons. Jesse Watters was Olivia's first choice for this interview. If Fox turned him down, she recommended he go to the Daily Mail, because their standards were low and he could dictate more terms. As a last resort, she recommended Newsmax or NewsNation. A week after Bobby's event—yes, he wore a blue suit—Olivia published her piece about Biden, savaging him as a drooling invalid. I was shocked when I read the piece because she had included an anecdote about Biden not remembering the name of a "Democratic megadonor" that I knew had been told to her off the record. "How did you get that in there?" I asked. "I just sort of Michael Wolffed it," she replied, which was jarring to me because previously she was scrupulous about sourcing. Her piece was promoted as an account of "the conspiracy of silence to protect" Biden. Soon after the debate, Bobby realized his campaign for president was over and began the…
November 26, 2025 at 10:23 PM
peark.es
I’m not usually one for hate reads but this…this was an absolute treat.
"We have this joke that I'm not really a speaker of the House," Mr. Johnson, who represents Louisiana, said in the latest episode of "The Katie Miller Podcast." It came across as less of a joke and more of an assessment of how he has chosen to wield his power. The comment was in line with how many of his political adversaries view his weak handling of the job he was thrust into two years ago with little leadership experience. (Even President Trump has joked, "I'm the speaker and the president.") Ms. Miller's newish podcast offers conservative leaders a warm bath of an interview. They are peppered with questions about their family routines and their favorite foods. But even on this forgiving platform, Mr. Johnson presented himself as a man toiling to fulfill his duties at a moment when his weak grip on his conference appears to be slipping even further. When asked the odd question "What is a hill that you would die on that no one else would?" Mr. Johnson responded not by naming a quirky obsession but by describing a management style that sounded highly dysfunctional: "There's a hill every 10 minutes." "You die on hills all the time," Ms. Johnson, a licensed pastoral counselor, interjected. Sitting together in the speaker's office, the Johnsons appear perfectly practiced and coifed. Ms. Johnson's bright orange lipstick exactly matched her suit and her shoes. The two know how to do this; they used to co-host a podcast about religion and politics. But they both revealed in their conversation with Ms. Miller that they are barely holding it together. When asked about the daily routine at home, the answer was pure chaos. "We're in triage every day, and every day is different. There's no pattern or schedule," Mr. Johnson said. "We're kind of in survival mode right now. We order in food because we just don't have the time or luxury of cooking." The biggest problem appears to be the sheer amount of incoming. "I think literally 100,000 people have my cellphone number," Mr. Johnson said. "The greatest challenge of my day is trying to keep up. Because I miss literally hundreds of calls and text messages in a day. The peril is, I don't know how important it was, what I missed." Accidental dialing is also a problem, according to his wife. "She's like, 'Make sure your phone is off! You're talking about, you know, this is related to national security, who's listening?' I don't know."
November 26, 2025 at 10:06 PM
peark.es
One more on this: the only prior time we avoided a recession with Beige Book layoff mentions this high was in the aftermath of the dotcom/9-11 recession. THAT SAID: this is a COINCIDENT indicator, with spikes coming *during* recessions. It's extraordinarily unlikely we are currently in a recession.
Chart showing Beige Book mentions of layoffs with US recessions highlighted
November 26, 2025 at 7:38 PM
peark.es
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
November 26, 2025 at 7:29 PM
peark.es
With a big assist from Claude, here we go.
Charts showing the change in share of 27+ (long-term) unemployed by industry of worker from Sept '24 to Sept '25.
November 26, 2025 at 5:58 PM
peark.es
Crypto has caught a bid
intraday chart of bitcoin
November 26, 2025 at 5:32 PM
peark.es
Nominal factory activity appears to have inflected pretty materially since the spring.
Charts of MoM % change in nondefense durable goods shipments ex transportation and level of durable goods orders ex transportation
November 26, 2025 at 4:31 PM
peark.es
yeah lots of progress the last few years but still far below potential for sure
Chart of annual housing starts / 1000 population for Canada.
November 26, 2025 at 4:02 PM
peark.es
Some interesting data on perceived productivity for remote versus in-office work from @atlantafed.org

www.atlantafed.org/-/media/docu...
Chart showing the share of responses to the question "how productive would your employees be when the work on business premises compared to when they work remotely" for true hybrid, bimodal, and fully remote firms.
November 26, 2025 at 3:14 PM
peark.es
average duration is up but *median* is actually trending slightly lower which makes all of this that much weirder.
Chart of median duration of unemployment 2022-current
November 26, 2025 at 3:08 PM
peark.es
Leaving everything aside it's pretty funny how much residual seasonality there is in jobless claims
Chart of weekly initial jobless claims by week of year for past three years
November 26, 2025 at 2:48 PM
peark.es
This explanation really fits well with the divergence between PA Emp Pop and UER. They look like they're measuring completely different things!
Charts of 25-54 employment-population ratio and unemployment rate (inverted) since 2022
November 26, 2025 at 2:11 PM